Baghdad Conference in Jordan
According to Iran Gate, on Tuesday, December 20, Jordan hosted the second round of the Baghdad Conference to foster cooperation and strengthen relations among the participating countries. Following last year’s meeting in Baghdad, this conference had the potential to enhance regional dialogue on political, security, economic, and environmental crises.
The summit brought together regional leaders and representatives from France, the European Union, and the United Nations to explore potential cooperation strategies between Iraq and its neighbors, as well as with its international partners. From Iraq’s perspective, meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan and Egyptian President Sisi was a step forward in trilateral cooperation between Amman, Baghdad, and Cairo. Egypt will host next year’s summit, and it also marked a personal achievement for Iraq’s Prime Minister.
However, very little progress was made towards promoting regional de-escalation with Iran. The Islamic Republic’s desire to maintain close ties with Iraq was evident to all at the conference, while no meetings took place between Iranian and Saudi representatives.
The conference, dubbed ‘without miracles’ by some, may offer more gains for European stakeholders than regional players. This initiative stems from France’s direct engagement, as Paris seems ready to invest and also participate at the highest level of diplomacy in Iraq, hoping to revive its presence in the Middle East after years of declining influence.
Many reasons are presented for why Iraq needs to invest in regional stability. Iraq faces several crises, including political, security, economic, and environmental challenges, and requires significant understanding and cooperation from its neighbors to address them.
For example, Iran and Turkey have recently intensified their military attacks inside Iraq against Kurdish groups, causing instability in the country. They have also restricted the flow of water into Iraq’s rivers, exacerbating water tensions in southern Iraq. The new Iraqi government seeks to engage constructively with these countries through diplomacy and dialogue.
Additionally, Iraq needs commercial investment from Arab countries in infrastructure and their cooperation in energy supply and preventing violent extremism. In return, Iraq is willing to play a positive role in the region in terms of multilateral dialogue and mediation between regional rivals, especially between Iran and the Gulf Arab countries.
The First International Test for Iraq’s New Prime Minister
The latest Baghdad Conference was a positive achievement for Iraq as it demonstrated that regional and international players are willing to cooperate with the new Iraqi government. The rise of the Sudani government in Baghdad initially raised concerns among regional countries due to the unofficial support it received from the Islamic Republic, as it was expected that Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s lack of experience in foreign policy and his closeness to pro-Iranian individuals and actors might weaken and endanger Iraq’s relations with its Arab neighbors.
Contrary to initial doubts, Sudani’s commitment to continuing the efforts made by his predecessor, whose foreign policy character and achievements were highly appreciated both inside and outside the region, helped reassure regional leaders and garner international support.
Overall, the summit allowed Sudani to clarify some regional issues affecting Iraq, including the depletion of national water reserves and the ongoing violation of Iraq’s sovereignty by Turkey and Iran in Kurdistan. This was a significant achievement for Iraq’s new Prime Minister, as his positive performance at the conference demonstrated his competence to participate in an international summit.
The Trilateral Framework of Amman, Baghdad, Cairo: A Step Forward
Jordan’s presence at the second regional Iraq conference on December 20 indicates Amman’s commitment to deepening economic integration in the MENA region. Egypt, another key regional partner, also participated in the summit. These three countries have been cooperating under the Amman-Baghdad-Cairo trilateral framework agreement since 2019.
Currently, all three countries face significant economic, political, social, and environmental challenges, including food security, energy security, and pharmaceutical constraints, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and the global economic downturn.
By collaborating on projects and linking their markets and policies, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq can lay the foundation for a united voice and a single economic front. Together, these three countries form a large market with 150 million citizens and a GDP of over $500 billion.
A Bed of Thorns for Tehran
Given Iran’s tarnished international image due to the brutal suppression of domestic protests, the provision of lethal weapons to Russia, and the deadlock in nuclear negotiations, expectations of Iran at this meeting were very low. It does not seem that meetings between Iranian officials and high-ranking EU figures on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the nuclear agreement will lead to progress, while talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia over regional disputes remain suspended.
The change of government in Iraq and the rise of Sudani also failed to improve relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The war in Yemen remains unresolved, and Iran is concerned about the growing Arab relations with Israel, which will soon be under the control of Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing faction. In such circumstances, it is difficult to be optimistic about this meeting.
France Resumes Its Third Way Diplomacy in the Region with Baghdad II
The second Baghdad Conference signifies President Macron’s desire to revive France’s Middle East policy after years of declining influence in the region. While the United States increasingly views the Middle East through the lens of its competition with China, France is eager to establish its diplomatic approach, one that downplays the Washington-Beijing rivalry and emphasizes areas of cooperation for all regional players, including Iran.
This is pursued alongside strengthening Paris’s relations with Gulf partners like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Macron’s rescue plan for Lebanon after the Beirut port explosion in 2020, which ultimately faced strong resistance from Lebanon’s political class.
The conference also builds on the growing relations between France and Iraq, which include diplomatic and security cooperation and economic prospects. Last year, the French company Total secured a $10 billion energy contract with Iraq. Given the limited results of the first conference in 2021, this second edition is an important test to gauge France’s ability to strengthen its third-way diplomacy in the Middle East.
