Baghdad Conference in Jordan
The Baghdad Conference in Jordan, according to Iran Gate, took place on Tuesday, December 20th. Jordan hosted the second round of the Baghdad Conference to foster cooperation and strengthen relations among participating countries. Following last year’s meeting in Baghdad, this conference had the potential to enhance regional dialogue on political, security, economic, and environmental crises.
This summit brought together regional leaders and representatives from France, the European Union, and the United Nations to explore potential cooperation strategies between Iraq and its neighbors, as well as with its international partners. From Iraq’s perspective, meetings with King Abdullah II of Jordan and Egyptian President El-Sisi were a step forward in trilateral cooperation between Amman, Baghdad, and Cairo. Egypt will host next year’s summit, which is also considered a personal achievement for the Iraqi Prime Minister.
However, very little progress was made in promoting regional de-escalation with Iran. The Islamic Republic’s desire to maintain close ties with Iraq was clear to all at the conference, while no meetings took place between Iranian and Saudi representatives.
The summit, dubbed ‘without miracles’ by some, might yield more benefits for European stakeholders than regional players. This initiative stems from France’s direct involvement, as Paris seems ready to invest and engage at the highest level of diplomacy in Iraq, aiming to revive its presence in the Middle East after years of declining influence.
There are many reasons why Iraq needs to invest in regional stability. Iraq faces multiple crises, including political, security, economic, and environmental ones, and it requires significant understanding and cooperation from its neighbors to address them.
For instance, Iran and Turkey have recently intensified their military attacks inside Iraq against Kurdish groups, causing instability in the country. They have also restricted water flow in Iraq’s rivers, exacerbating water tensions in southern Iraq. The new Iraqi government seeks to engage constructively with these countries through diplomacy and dialogue.
Moreover, Iraq needs the commercial investment of Arab countries in infrastructure and their cooperation in energy supply and preventing violent extremism. In return, Iraq is willing to play a positive role in the region in terms of multilateral dialogue and mediation between regional rivals, especially between Iran and the Gulf Arab countries.
The First International Test for Iraq’s New Prime Minister
The latest Baghdad Conference was a positive achievement for Iraq as it demonstrated that regional and international players are willing to cooperate with the new Iraqi government. The rise of the Sudani government in Baghdad initially caused concerns for regional countries due to its unofficial support from the Islamic Republic, as it was expected that Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s lack of experience in foreign policy and his closeness to figures and actors supportive of the Islamic Republic might weaken and endanger Iraq’s relations with its Arab neighbors.
Contrary to initial doubts, Sudani’s commitment to continuing the efforts of his predecessor, whose foreign policy character and achievements were highly appreciated both inside and outside the region, helped calm regional leaders and garner international support.
Overall, this summit allowed Sudani to shed light on some regional issues affecting Iraq, including the reduction of national water reserves and the ongoing violations of Iraq’s sovereignty by Turkey and Iran in Kurdistan. This was a significant achievement for Iraq’s new Prime Minister, as his positive performance at the conference showed that he possesses the necessary qualifications to participate in an international summit.
The Amman-Baghdad-Cairo Trilateral Framework: A Step Forward
Jordan’s presence at the second regional conference of Iraq on December 20th signifies Amman’s commitment to deepening economic integration in the MENA region. Egypt, another key regional partner, also participated in this summit. These three countries have been cooperating under the Amman-Baghdad-Cairo trilateral agreement framework since 2019.
Currently, all three countries face significant economic, political, social, and environmental challenges, including food security, energy security, and pharmaceutical constraints, which have been exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war and the global economic downturn.
By collaborating on projects and linking their markets and policies, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq can lay the foundation for a united voice and a unified economic front. Together, these three countries form a large market with 150 million citizens and a GDP of over $500 billion.
A Bed of Thorns for Tehran
Given Iran’s tarnished international image due to the brutal suppression of domestic protests, the provision of lethal weapons to Russia, and the stalemate in nuclear negotiations, expectations from Iran at this meeting were very low. It seems unlikely that meetings between Iranian officials and senior EU figures on the sidelines of the summit to discuss the nuclear deal will lead to any progress, while Iran’s negotiations with Saudi Arabia over regional disputes remain suspended.
The change of government in Iraq and the rise of Sudani could not improve relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The war in Yemen remains unresolved, and Iran is concerned about the increasing Arab relations with Israel, which will soon be under the control of Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing faction. In these circumstances, being optimistic about such a meeting is difficult.
France Resumes Its Third Way Diplomacy in the Region with Baghdad II
The second Baghdad Conference represents President Macron’s desire to revive France’s Middle East policy after years of declining influence in the region. While the United States increasingly views the Middle East through the lens of its competition with China, France is eager to establish its own diplomatic approach, one that downplays Washington-Beijing rivalry and emphasizes areas of cooperation for all regional players, including Iran.
This comes in the context of strengthening Paris’s relations with Gulf partners like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, as well as Macron’s rescue plan for Lebanon following the Beirut port explosion in 2020, which ultimately faced strong resistance from Lebanon’s political class.
The conference also builds on the growing France-Iraq relationship, which includes diplomatic and security cooperation and economic prospects. French company Total secured a $10 billion energy deal with Iraq last year. Given the limited results of the first conference in 2021, this second edition will be an important test for assessing France’s ability to strengthen its third-way diplomacy in the Middle East.