Beijing’s Warning to Taiwan
Beijing’s Warning to Taiwan: China plans military exercises to punish Taiwan just days after the inauguration of the new president, Lai. Beijing launches punitive maneuvers around Taiwan, heating up the waters around the island once again. On the morning of May 23, at dawn, Beijing started new military exercises three days after the inauguration of the new president, Lai Ching-te William Lai, on the island.
The exercises, known as Joint Sword 2024, began at dawn today and will continue for two days in the Taiwan Strait and around the disputed island.
Chinese military spokesperson Li Xi said their navy and air force ships will focus on joint combat readiness patrols and will jointly take control of the battlefield and conduct precise joint strikes on key targets.
In other words, Beijing wants to emphasize its absolute military superiority over Taiwan, which it claims to be an inseparable part of its territory.
According to official media, these maneuvers were launched to punish separatist forces and to send a warning to hostile foreign forces following a separatist speech by Lai Ching-te, the regional leader of Taiwan.
In response, Taipei condemned these exercises, calling them irrational provocations that threaten Taiwan’s democracy and freedom as well as regional peace and stability.
Dangerous Words
But why has Beijing decided now to punish Taiwan? It is no coincidence that China’s statements refer to the May 20 speech of the new president, William Lai, who, in his inauguration, emphasized stopping military threats and intimidation against the island and called for peace with China.
Lai said, ‘I hope China confronts the reality of Taiwan’s existence, respects our people’s choices, and chooses dialogue with good intentions instead of confrontation. The island’s democracy is determined to defend itself against multiple threats and infiltration attempts by China.’
Beijing, which sees Lai as a dangerous separatist, understood from his words that he lacks the caution of former President Tsai Ing-wen, and responded by stating that there is only one China and that acknowledging Taiwan’s independence will have consequences.
William Lai was elected as the President of the Republic of China in January, which officially defines itself as Taiwan, an already independent nation. He is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, an organization that does not seek independence from China but believes Taiwan is currently an independent nation.
Unstable Situation
Taiwan, with a population of about 23 million, has been autonomous since 1949, but China considers it a rebellious province and intends to bring it back under its control, even by force if necessary.
The importance of this island for Beijing has historical, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Recognizing its independence would mean violating its territorial integrity principle and acknowledging the existence of another political-economic model for Communist China.
Moreover, the dispute over this island involves Beijing’s competition with the United States. The island is not only the world’s leading microchip producer but is also located in the so-called first island chain, which includes U.S.-allied countries overlooking the ocean.
Controlling it would open a gap in this chain and give Beijing direct access to the Pacific Ocean.
In an effort to maintain a difficult balance between its interests and relations with China, Washington’s policy since 1979 has been based on so-called strategic ambiguity. The United States does not recognize Taiwan’s independence but remains the island’s main supporter and arms supplier.
It is no coincidence that they are often involved in military crises between the two countries. One of the latest instances was in August 2022 when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei, causing tensions between the two countries.
Does Ambiguity Sometimes Help?
Some China policy experts say that in his speech, Lai actually deviated from the path his predecessor had taken, despite committing to maintaining the status quo during his election campaign.
For example, while Tsai referred to Beijing officials or those across the strait without assuming the existence of two different countries, Lai spoke of the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China, stating that they are not subordinate to each other.
The Financial Times writes that, in fact, there is a risk of losing the ambiguity that allowed Beijing’s territorial claims to coexist without conflicts with Taiwan’s actual independence. We must wait to see if William Lai really intends to increase risks by boosting military spending and strengthening alliances, especially with the United States.
But if so, even if politicians claim they have little choice, it will complicate relations with mainland China.
Meanwhile, the two-day period announced by Beijing makes the current maneuvers shorter than the previous two. Unlike in 2023, they do not include live-fire exercises. However, as the final letter in the operation name Joint Sword 2024A suggests, they may only be the first in a long series.
After several months of general expectation, China once again increased military pressure on Taiwan. Following the inaugural speech deemed provocative by Beijing, China’s armed forces announced military exercises that practically simulate imposing a naval blockade on the island.
It does not seem that the goal is an invasion, which would be very difficult under current circumstances; rather, the aim is to send a harsh political signal to Taipei, showing that China’s armed forces are ready to act if they wish.
However, given Taiwan’s deep integration into international supply chains, the hypothesis of sanctions is the most practical irreversible option Beijing has on the table. Nevertheless, it indicates an escalation of tensions with global consequences, as it is estimated that if the island is blocked by sea, the world economy could shrink by up to 5%.