Biden Considering Exit from the Fire with Abraham Accords

Biden Contemplates Exiting the Fire with the Abraham Accords

Draft Agreement Between the US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel

Biden Contemplates Exiting the Fire with the Abraham Accords. According to Iran Gate, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, the Biden administration, following in the footsteps of its predecessor Donald Trump and his Abraham Accords, is seeking to lay the groundwork for an agreement with Saudi Arabia to recognize the state of Israel. This agreement will certainly reflect some of the conditions previously stated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Of course, it is still too early to call it an agreement, but as a step forward taken by the United States and Saudi Arabia, it is certainly noteworthy. However, the path to reaching an agreement will be tough and full of challenges.

All of this is happening, at least on paper, at an inopportune historical moment. The less-than-ideal relations between the US and Saudi Arabia, Washington’s unfulfilled promises to seek truth and justice regarding the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the thunderous presence of the Chinese in the Persian Gulf leading to the first historical rapprochement between Riyadh and Tehran, and finally the most right-wing government in Israel’s history which has used an iron fist against the Palestinian people. Yet, it seems that realpolitik has triumphed over the principled weaknesses even openly expressed by global powers.

According to what the American newspaper wrote, quoting American officials, Riyadh has accepted the broad outlines of the American proposal to recognize Israel in exchange for concessions from the Jewish state to the Palestinians, Washington’s security guarantees to Saudi Arabia, and assistance in developing the country’s nuclear energy for non-military purposes.

As the Wall Street Journal exclusively wrote after discussions with American officials, given the current circumstances, there is no doubt that we are facing the most significant Middle East peace agreement. There is still much work to be done to reach a formal handshake, and negotiations will continue for several months, with hopes that these efforts will lead to a satisfactory outcome next year.

Currently, there are no precise details. John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said in a phone briefing with a limited group of reporters: Negotiations are ongoing, but there is still a challenging road ahead to reach a framework for normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

However, it seems that following last month’s meeting between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in Jeddah, and a few days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed readiness to grant some concessions to honor the creation of a close relationship between the Jewish state and the Gulf kingdom, an initial agreement has been reached.

According to some experts, this effort to achieve the agreement is a strong signal indicating how the United States intends to constrain its rivals in the region and put its signature on a historical rapprochement that occurred between the Saudis and Iranians with China’s mediation. The Wall Street Journal, quoting American officials, wrote that the United States wants to reduce Riyadh’s level of relations with Beijing, which has recently been increasingly active in the region.

In this agreement, Washington wants to obtain assurances from Riyadh that it will not allow China to build military bases in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the United States seeks to impose limitations on Saudi Arabia’s use of technology developed by Huawei. Negotiators also want to ensure that Saudi Arabia does not remove the dollar as a bargaining tool from its transactions and will use the US dollar for pricing oil sales.

It is also expected that the United States will seek ways to resolve disputes over oil prices, which stem from Saudi Arabia’s repeated production cuts, as these production restrictions are one of the factors contributing to inflation and one of Joe Biden’s biggest challenges and problems considering the 2024 presidential election.

What interests the House of Saud the most is the development of nuclear energy for non-military purposes and greater security guarantees. Saudi Arabia is also seeking to obtain difficult concessions from Israel, including the creation of an independent Palestinian state. However, this move by Riyadh will come at the cost of stepping back in relations with Beijing, which has aggressively entered a region historically contested between the United States and Russia.

This plan reconstructs the project laid down by Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, which envisioned the gradual rapprochement of Gulf and North African kingdoms, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, with Israel. All of this aims to further isolate what is considered by Riyadh, Tel Aviv, and at this stage, despite the mission’s declarations, also by Washington as the main enemy in the region: Iran, an ally of Russia and Syria.

It is unclear what concessions Riyadh seeks from Tel Aviv, but the reality is that these concessions will occur during one of the darkest periods in recent Israeli-Palestinian relations, with violence escalating since the current executive branch took office, resulting in the deaths of over 100 Palestinians.

A situation that has repeatedly prompted the Saudi government to publicly condemn Israel’s actions. In this regard, such an agreement could be seen as a step back by Riyadh, as it has always ruled out the possibility of reaching an agreement with Israel before the establishment of a recognized independent Palestinian state.

Currently, there is more ambiguity and doubt than certainty, but in one aspect, it can be confidently claimed that it seems all parties are willing to reach an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to expand the anti-Iran coalition, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants to increase his influence in the Middle East and beyond, and for this purpose, he must inevitably become a full-fledged nuclear power. As previously mentioned, Biden is also seeking a major foreign policy success to capitalize on during the election campaign.

However, on this side of the table, Riyadh is hesitant to completely abandon China, and most importantly, since the start of the Ukraine war, it has shown that it knows how to stand tall and make decisions contrary to the positions of its best ally, Washington. Additionally, it has already informed its aides that it is not ready to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel similar to the relations Israel signed with the United Arab Emirates in 2020.

Meanwhile, Netanyahu is concerned about the potential Saudi nuclear program, even though it is claimed to be for non-military purposes, there is always a concern that it could be used for military objectives. Lastly, the Palestinians, Riyadh has always demanded the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, just as the Americans have always emphasized the creation of two independent states.

On the other hand, Israel is completely opposed to this concept. Although granting concessions to the Palestinians is part of this draft agreement, Netanyahu’s government downplays this point, considering it less important than we might think. Ultimately, he intends to make small gestures, and even in these cases, it remains to be seen how his government’s hardline allies will react, as they are currently seeking to expand settlements in the West Bank, and this is happening.

In any case, it seems that a three-step forward has been taken, but this is just a beginning, and to bridge the gap leading to the goal, strong will and readiness from all parties to make difficult and significant decisions are needed.