Biden in Limbo
Middle East: Repeated Attacks on U.S. Bases
Biden in Limbo: The deadly attack on American forces at the Syria-Jordan border could escalate tensions and leave the Biden administration at a crossroads: symbolic response or risk of escalating tensions with Iran.
The recent drone attack at the Syria-Jordan border, which resulted in the death of three American soldiers and injured 34 others, is just the latest in a series of violent actions against the United States. However, it is certainly the most serious and deadly to date. This attack, carried out on January 28, partially highlights the escalation of tension and friction with Iran, and despite Tehran’s denial of any involvement, Washington holds Iran responsible for the attack.
Moreover, this lightning attack occurs precisely when rumors about the potential U.S. withdrawal from the region, especially from Iraq and Syria, are more prevalent than before. American forces have been stationed in Syria for nearly a decade to combat ISIS and in Iraq for over twenty years without troop adjustments and periodic rotations of staff and soldiers.
Therefore, the area often referred to as the intersection of two Arab countries sees itself as the center of escalating tension that began in October from Israel and the Gaza Strip and expanded to a regional level in the following months, waiting to see what Washington’s response to the recent attack will be.
Insecurity of American Forces at the Syria-Jordan Border
On Sunday, a drone attack on a base at the Syria-Jordan border killed three American soldiers and injured at least 34 others. The attack targeted facilities used by American forces at Tower 22 of the U.S. military base in Jordan, located approximately 20 kilometers south of the Al-Tanf garrison in Syria.
Nevertheless, the government of Amman declared that contrary to initial inspections by CENTCOM, the United States Central Command, this attack did not occur on Jordanian soil. Considering all these factors, hostilities have now inflamed the entire region from Lebanon to the Red Sea. Since October, Syria and Iraq have been scenes of multiple exchanges of fire between American military forces and militias close to Iran.
According to tracking conducted by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, American forces have endured nearly 170 attacks since the beginning of the crisis, which so far have been limited to retaliatory dynamics.
What is the U.S. Doing in Syria and Iraq?
The U.S. presence in Syria dates back to 2014 when the United States intervened in the country with the aim of fighting the Islamic State ISIS under the name Operation Inherent Resolve, the U.S. Army’s operational name for the international military intervention against ISIS, following a formal request from the Baghdad government.
In June of that same year, the newly established caliphate declared the borders between the two countries nullified to create a single territory of its own. The U.S. Air Force, supporting ground operations by the People’s Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel), participated in pushing back ISIS militants until the fall of Baghouz in eastern Syria by March 2019.
Since the Obama administration and then Donald Trump, up to the arrival of Joe Biden, Washington has initiated a project to reduce its presence in this region, aiming to focus its forces in other areas to further contain China, especially in the Pacific.
In particular, Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw American forces from northern Syria in October 2019 was highly controversial and debated. Regardless of fluctuations over the years, it is estimated that today Washington has 800 to 900 soldiers in Syria and over 2,500 soldiers in Iraq.
Impending Withdrawal
With the conflict between Hamas and Israel that began on October 7, the United States has significantly increased its military presence in the Middle East as part of a deterrent tool to prevent further steps in regional tension escalation by Iran and Tehran-aligned regional actors.
Nevertheless, the long-term strategic path, at least as far as Syria and Iraq are concerned, still seems to involve withdrawal and separation. In this context, official-level meetings with Baghdad are underway to discuss the potential withdrawal of American and foreign forces. However, as far as Syria is concerned, all of this currently remains speculative and rumor-based.
Of course, rumors persistently emphasize them to the extent that Charles Lister writes in the columns of Foreign Policy that the U.S. withdrawal from this country is on the State Department’s table, also emphasizing that this action would be a gift to the Islamic State.
The Al-Monitor news website assures that negotiations are also underway at the Pentagon, and based on them, they are even working on a military agreement between Kurdish armed groups and the Bashar Assad regime to neutralize the potential return of ISIS. Meanwhile, the Politico website writes that the U.S. is reconsidering its decision to evacuate its intelligence and military resources from the Middle East and move towards strategic goals related to Russia and China.
Biden at a Crossroads
President Biden has promised that Washington will not allow the attack on the Syria-Jordan border, for which the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-aligned Shia militias, has claimed responsibility, to go unpunished. Unlike many previous instances, such as when an Iraqi soldier went into a coma at Christmas, this attack resulted in the death of three American soldiers on duty and sparked heated debates in America.
The Biden administration now finds itself at a crossroads. On one hand, it cannot settle for a symbolic response like previous instances because this attack is certainly more serious than before. On the other hand, there is a risk that an excessive reaction against Tehran, which has quickly denied involvement in this attack, could create a real military crisis leading to an unpredictable scale of conflict.
The fact that several days have passed without a U.S. response suggests that Washington is considering a broader response that requires more precise planning. On the other hand, Tehran denies any involvement in this attack, and it is no coincidence that on Tuesday, Iranian-backed Iraqi militias known as Kata’ib Hezbollah announced the suspension of attacks against American forces. Could this be a sign of goodwill to prevent further escalation?
The Wall Street Journal editorial board, referring to the attack on Tower 22, writes that this was bound to happen sooner or later. In the 1970s, Iran played a role in the hostage crisis that undermined Jimmy Carter’s presidency. Thus, President Biden should fear repeating Jimmy Carter’s fate if he does not respond with sufficient strength and power to ensure his message is well understood.
Therefore, the uncertain situation will negatively impact public opinion in America, which is currently voting, where even a small mistake on the scene of a well-known and unpopular war like the Middle East could be costly for President Biden, the same president who began his term with the disastrous and devastating withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in August 2021.