Biden’s Final Shot to Putin’s Heart
Biden’s Final Shot to Putin’s Heart
The White House allows Kyiv to use long-range missiles against Russia, but this shift is more political than military. Donald Trump has not yet settled in the Oval Office, but the mere news of his return seems to have accelerated events on the Ukraine scene.
After months of hesitation and resistance, Joe Biden has indeed allowed Kyiv to use ATACMS, the Army Tactical Missile System with long-range capabilities, to target deep inside Russian territory. These systems have a range of up to 300 kilometers and, according to informed sources, will likely be used initially to target the Kursk region in Russia, where Ukrainian forces captured parts of Russian territory last summer. Washington’s shift comes after thousands of North Korean forces were deployed to support Moscow and extensive Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure over the weekend.
But most importantly, this decision is made two months before Trump’s return to the White House. As we know, the elected president is hesitant about providing more aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly, though without specifying exactly how. According to various sources close to the current administration, the White House intends to place Kyiv in the best possible position before the peace negotiations that the new president will have to lead at the start of his presidency.
A Controversial Call
After receiving criticism in recent days, even from Volodymyr Zelensky, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz defended his decision to call Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time in two years. Scholz stated that the conversation last Friday was important to make Putin understand that Germany, Europe, and many other countries will not reduce their support for Ukraine. However, this action, which European allies were not informed about, sparked a strong reaction from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Tusk said that last night’s attack, one of the largest in this war, showed that phone diplomacy cannot replace real Western support for Ukraine. Regardless of the controversies, it seems that Germany’s initiative has not been very successful. Berlin sources reported that the conversation was very detailed but concluded that there was little change in the Russian president’s view of the war, which is not good news. Meanwhile, according to the Kremlin, Putin told his counterpart that there would be no peace agreement without territorial concessions from Kyiv. Zelensky stated that this call has essentially opened Pandora’s box, which is what Putin has long sought.
Is Europe Ready for the Worst?
According to Biden administration officials, the decision to allow the use of ATACMS to target deep inside Russian territory is a response to Moscow’s decision to use North Korean forces in the war against Ukraine. The U.S. shift may allow Ukraine to use SCALP missiles provided by France and Britain to target Russian soil. British Prime Minister Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron had been pressing Biden on this matter.
European leaders continue to emphasize their support for Ukraine against Russian aggression, but soon they will have to make difficult decisions about how they intend to continue supporting their ally while also ensuring their own security. There is nothing to suggest that Trump intends to do anything different from what he promised, which is to suspend arms shipments to Ukraine and then reach an agreement with Putin, ignoring the demands of Ukrainians and Europeans.
If this scenario materializes, the 27 EU countries must have a clear stance on how prepared they are to avoid having decisions imposed on them by others. French President clarified after meeting with NATO’s new Secretary-General Mark Rutte in Paris that no decision should be made about Ukraine without the presence of Ukrainians, and no decision in Europe without the presence of Europeans.
Too Little, Too Late
On the military front, the use of American missiles and possibly even British and French missiles will give Kyiv more maneuvering space. The Ukrainian army is under attack both in the Kursk region of Russia, an area Moscow wants to keep as a bargaining chip in case of negotiations, and in eastern Ukraine. However, several observers point out that the permission to use ATACMS, which Kyiv has a limited number of, may not change the balance of power on the battlefield.
As we approach winter, operations on both sides are likely to slow down, and with Russian forces controlling nearly one-fifth of Ukraine’s entire territory, the U.S. decision was welcomed in Kyiv. However, Ukrainian officials did not hide their disappointment that if this decision had been made earlier, it could have had deeper consequences. On Tuesday, November 19, Ukrainian President Zelensky spoke at a video conference with the European Parliament in Brussels on the occasion of the thousandth day since the war began.
As expected, he requested the provision of weapons so that his country could negotiate with the Kremlin from a position of strength to end the war. The arrival of current U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels on Tuesday, November 12, clearly indicates the urgency of this situation. The Biden administration and Europeans have two months to decisively strengthen Ukraine.
Military experts are debating the real impact of Biden’s decision on Kyiv’s ability to resist and prevent Russian aggression. For some, the American decision may be too little, too late, and may not change the outcome of the war. What is clear is that Biden intends to strengthen the political legacy of his administration in support of Kyiv and send a political message to Europe before the foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels. Although this Western support is cautious and slow from the Ukrainian perspective, it gradually surpasses all the red lines set by the Kremlin. It remains to be seen whether Trump will reinforce or weaken this message.
