Biden’s Soldiers at Bibi’s Service
Biden’s High-Stakes Visit to Israel
According to Iran Gate, Joe Biden traveled to Israel on Wednesday, October 18, coinciding with the Gaza hospital explosion. However, the growing outrage from this incident threatens America’s strategy. Although the U.S. President’s mission in the Middle East was already seen as challenging, the bombing of Al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza on Tuesday, October 17, could turn it into the most complex period of his presidency.
The massacre of an unspecified number of civilians, estimated between 200 to 500, but currently unverifiable, mainly affected those injured in the incident, patients admitted to the hospital, or refugees seeking shelter from the bombing. This undermines any efforts to de-escalate tensions. King Abdullah II of Jordan canceled a planned meeting in Amman, which was to include Biden, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.
The meeting was canceled due to thousands of protesters flooding the streets of regional capitals and beyond. Demonstrations also took place in Istanbul near the Israeli consulate and in the Libyan cities of Tripoli and Misrata. In Beirut, Lebanon, police fired tear gas at protesters gathered outside the U.S. embassy.
Meanwhile, Palestinians and Israelis accuse each other of responsibility for the massacre. Hamas claims the hospital was hit by an Israeli military attack, while Tel Aviv asserts it has evidence of an Islamic Jihad rocket going off course.
President Biden, in a conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, expressed deep regret over the incident and added that it seems Israel is not responsible, and the other side committed it. While the perpetrator and the death toll remain unclear, the horror of another massacre paralyzes any diplomatic initiatives and amplifies concerns about regional conflict escalation.
Will Gaza Remain Closed?
In these very complex and unstable conditions, the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens by the minute, while the Rafah crossing remains closed for both entry and exit. This was to be one of the topics at the Amman meeting, whose cancellation condemns civilians in the besieged area to unbearable and relentless suffering. Rafah, the only link between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, has been bombed several times by Israel since the start of the attack.
One million Palestinian civilians have been displaced southward following Tel Aviv’s orders and now find themselves without any escape or shelter. Water, which Israel was supposed to restore, is no longer sufficient, electricity is absent, and medical services, already unstable and inadequate, are collapsing.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that Hamas’s attacks do not justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people and called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. French President Emmanuel Macron tweeted that humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip must be restored without delay, but many accused him of hypocrisy in comments on the social platform X, as the day before this tweet, France, the United States, and the United Kingdom rejected a Russia-proposed Security Council resolution regarding the conflict, which called for a humanitarian ceasefire, the release of all hostages, and the evacuation of military personnel.
A Half-Finished Mission
More than half of Joe Biden’s meetings in the Middle East were canceled before he even boarded Air Force One. However, the decision to undertake this trip despite security threats could have implications for Washington’s relations with the entire Arab world. Part of organizing this mission involved normalizing relations between Arab countries in the region and Israel. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled between regional capitals and conducted a marathon of talks with regional leaders.
The objectives of the U.S. President’s trip, which are very difficult to achieve due to the lack of coordination and heterogeneous goals, included reiterating support for Tel Aviv following the Hamas attack on October 7 and curbing reactions and violence against Gaza civilians to prevent conflict escalation. The United States also hoped to make progress in freeing Americans and other hostages held by Hamas and ensuring safe passage for foreign citizens from the besieged area to Egypt.
The explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital derailed this plan and put Biden at risk of managing a trip with Israel as the sole destination, facing increased regional tensions and damaging the U.S.’s credibility as an honest broker. Many analysts in the Financial Times noted that images of the U.S. President alongside Netanyahu after the Gaza city hospital’s destruction, attributed by a large part of the Arab public to Israeli forces, would be perceived as a confirmation of unwavering U.S. support for Israel in the eyes of the Middle East public.
Capitalizing on Arab Anger
With growing anger in Arab streets, the likelihood of escalating and spreading tensions beyond the Gaza Strip increases. If Hezbollah, a powerful Shia militia closely allied with Iran, joins the war, it raises concerns about opening a northern front. Clashes at the borders have intensified for several days, and on the occasion of Biden’s visit, Hezbollah leaders named October 18 as a day of rage. Meanwhile, in Tehran, Ebrahim Raisi called the U.S. an accomplice to Israel in the crimes committed in Gaza.
According to Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, a full-scale war with Lebanon would turn the war with Hamas into a secondary front and added that compared to Hezbollah’s arsenal, Hamas’s weapons in Gaza appear very modest in terms of equipment and military capabilities.
Events are rapidly evolving, and Washington’s main rivals are also observing the outcomes. Moscow, a traditional ally of Arab regimes, spoke of the apparent failure of U.S. policy in the Middle East, and Beijing, the region’s main oil buyer, eager to establish itself as an alternative player to the U.S. in the region, both hope to capitalize on Arab public anger towards Israel and the U.S. for their own benefit.
Finally, according to some analysts, Joe Biden’s choice was very bold in many ways. His trip to Israel reflects the political capital the U.S. government is investing in this conflict. The United States pursues multiple, not necessarily complementary goals.
Reiterating support for Israel while trying to curb tensions and activate support mechanisms for the civilian population of Gaza, striking Hamas by preventing regional conflict escalation, increasing U.S. commitment and engagement without affecting the Ukraine front, and avoiding negative political repercussions domestically. The explosion at Al-Ahli Hospital and the cancellation of the planned meeting in Jordan significantly reduced the importance of Biden and Netanyahu’s meeting and subsequently the U.S.’s ambition to use this moment to resume some form of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.