Great Fears Against Small Hopes
Great Fears Against Small Hopes
The government of Masoud Pezeshkian might be considered one of the most unfortunate governments since the revolution.
In the short time since this government began its work, many pivotal and critical points have been crossed, and after each event, numerous analyses regarding the government’s position in society have been presented.
The election with 50% participation has further increased doubts about the status of the fourteenth government in society.
Despite the fact that in the sphere of polling institutions, some survey results were heard in this short period, there was a reservation from various centers regarding the public release of this data.
The national survey by the Center for Opinion Polling, Shenakht, can be considered the first survey about the performance of the fourteenth government that has been publicly released, presenting the government’s image among different groups in society.
The main findings of this survey might be summarized into two fundamental themes: first, a fluid and fragile social capital, and second, the absence of observable outcomes.
One of the most important findings of the Shenakht survey is the confirmation of various analyses indicating the fluid and fragile social capital of the fourteenth government.
These results show that despite Pezeshkian’s electoral victory, his government’s social capital is very fragile and maintaining it requires serious effort. Each of the previous governments had a strong initial social base, which due to the government’s discourse or the personal popularity of the president, provided time to implement policies and gain social acceptance for changes.
Results from various surveys and social analyses indicate that this capital is less in the fourteenth government, and therefore, Masoud Pezeshkian’s social base in the elections has the potential to quickly become disappointed and regret their vote.
Perhaps the clear point of this survey for the fourteenth government is the percentage of moderate or average views in all propositions and questions.
This high percentage might indicate that a part of society has not yet made a definitive decision regarding their evaluation of the government’s performance and is waiting for the fulfillment of the promises made by government officials and the president.
With the explanation that this survey was conducted before the recent economic upheavals and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate.
In line with the first point, another finding of this survey is the absence of observable and specific outcomes from the government’s performance and a lack of hope for change in society.
It seems that a large part of society in the short term after the government began its work has not yet observed tangible changes in the country’s situation and especially in economic areas, has witnessed worsening economic conditions and a decline in quality of life.
The weakness of hope for change targets one of the most fundamental prerequisites for success in policymaking. Implementing any change and policy requires societal alignment with that policy and public persuasion for the acceptance of the possibility of achieving the anticipated results of that policy.
The weakness of hope for change seriously challenges access to this alignment. The results of the Shenakht survey show a serious weakness of this indicator in Iranian society.
Overall, it can be said that the Shenakht survey shows a lot of fear and fragile hope for the fourteenth government.
Fear of the absence of tangible policy outcomes, especially in the economic arena, and fragile hope among groups in society who are still waiting for the government’s promises to come to fruition.
Nevertheless, the political and economic upheavals in recent years show that large segments of Iranian society have little patience in dealing with governments and need more than promises and programs to be hopeful about the future—something that can change their daily living conditions and economic upheavals towards a desirable state.