Challenging Neighborhood
According to the 2022 report by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, for the seventh consecutive year, Turkey, with nearly 3.6 million refugees, mainly Syrians, has been the largest host country in the world. Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran have also been among the top 10 host countries for refugees, primarily from Afghanistan, the second largest country of origin.
Javad Hedayati, Director General of the Transit and International Transport Office of the Road Maintenance and Transportation Organization, stated on April 4, 2022, citing official statistics, that after the Taliban came to power, the entry of Afghans into our country through official borders reached about five thousand people daily, whereas before the changes in Afghanistan, this number was between 700 and 800 people per day.
In recent years, the thirteenth government has been repeatedly demanded by public opinion and civil institutions to identify, organize, and balance the statistics of immigrant entry and exit. Evidence suggested a lack of capacity or will to respond to this demand. During the election campaigns, for the first time, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in one of the debates that he would build a wall for security on the eastern border with Pakistan and Afghanistan.
This election candidate emphasized that illegal immigrants and the root of all serious social harms in the fields of drugs, employment, divorce, and all serious harms have roots in the east of the country.
Masoud Pezeshkian also wrote during his campaign on the X network that his government, God willing, will pursue three simultaneous actions regarding Afghan immigrants: 1. Complete border closure and prevention of further migration, with the Ministry of Interior having a central responsibility.
2. Organizing existing immigrants. It cannot be denied that many Afghan brothers play a significant role in Iran’s economy or have shown sacrifice during the imposed war, but their presence in Iran must be organized and disciplined.
The responsibility of the Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Intelligence: 3. Negotiating with European countries for the acceptance of some immigrants or at least covering the costs of their presence in Iran. The West must take responsibility for what it has done in Afghanistan, leading to the migration of millions of Afghans.
There is no reason for the Iranian people to bear the costs of others’ wrong policies.
Iskandar Momeni, the Minister of Interior, also stated last Wednesday during the presentation of his programs to the Islamic Consultative Assembly regarding the Afghan immigrant issue, that one of my work priorities is to pursue the enhancement of border security and the management and organization of the presence of foreign nationals in the country and to prevent their illegal entry through the implementation of the seventh plan law based on the formation of a national immigration organization to organize and regulate this important matter, as well as border closure and bilateral or multilateral cooperation with neighboring countries.
He added that the use of international agreements and holding accountable relevant institutions and other related countries should also be taken seriously in this regard.
History of Hosting
For decades, since the war against the Soviet occupiers in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Iran has been hosting Afghan refugees. It has repeatedly criticized the failure to fulfill global commitments regarding the challenges of this hosting and warned about the impact of sanctions on Iran on the quality of hosting the immigrant community and the consequences of economic problems.
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, then Minister of Foreign Affairs, emphasized this again at the Global Refugee Forum in Geneva on December 13, 2023, stating that our generous hosting of refugees occurs while Iran itself is under the harshest inhumane and illegal sanctions by the United States.
Illegal sanctions, by reducing capacity and exerting pressure on aid organizations, prevent them from fulfilling their humanitarian assistance duties to needy individuals in sanctioned countries.
The former Foreign Minister also reiterated the Islamic Republic’s warning regarding the wave of migration to the West and emphasized the Taliban government’s responsibility in this regard, adding that under such circumstances, it cannot be expected that the Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to provide favorable services to the large refugee population, many of whom are seeking to migrate to Europe.
The Afghan refugee issue will not be resolved without their return to their homeland.
In this regard, it is necessary for the United Nations High Commissioner, neighboring countries, donor countries, and other involved parties to effectively cooperate in helping Afghanistan to create suitable economic, security, and political infrastructures to attract refugees back to their country.
The main responsibility lies with the ruling authorities in Afghanistan.
Shared Pain
As a country that, like Iran, has faced the Afghan refugee crisis in recent years, the Pakistani government, two years after the start of a new wave of migration from its northern neighbor, set a one-month deadline on 1402/07/11 for the voluntary exit of about 1.7 million undocumented Afghan nationals from Pakistan. After the deadline, it began identifying, arresting, and deporting illegal Afghan immigrants from its country.
Islamabad has announced that one of the main goals of this action is to combat terrorism. According to the statistics announced by the Pakistani government, since the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, terrorist attacks by Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the country have increased by 60%, resulting in the deaths of over 2,200 people.
Asif Durrani, Pakistan’s special representative for Afghanistan, recently warned of the possibility of another 9/11 originating from Afghanistan.
Asif Durrani further added that Afghanistan has almost been forgotten, there is no doubt about it, and this was emphasized at the third Doha meeting in June. Humanitarian aid is not at a satisfactory level; even last year, only one-third of the commitments were fulfilled.
He also warned that the presence of various terror groups, including ISIS-Khorasan, poses a significant challenge for the region and beyond. He added that his concern is that ISIS is growing inside Afghanistan, and this should be a source of concern for everyone in the region and beyond due to their attacks in Iran, Moscow, and also within Pakistan. If such a thing can happen here, it can happen elsewhere too.
The Pakistani government announced that last year, in the first phase of the forced deportation program for Afghan immigrants, it managed to return over half a million undocumented Afghan nationals to their country.
Islamabad also announced in April that it would begin the second phase of the forced deportation process for Afghan immigrants without residency documents.
Some reports even indicate that Pakistan may expel Afghan immigrants more broadly in the second phase, which may include documented Afghans as well.
Security Challenges
Combating terrorism has not been the only concern of the Pakistani government regarding Afghan immigrants, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has also been affected by the entry of terrorists into its territory over the past three years. On July 14, the Ministry of Intelligence announced the capture and transfer of one of the main planners and leaders of the two explosions on Wednesday, January 3, 2023, during the fourth anniversary ceremony of Martyr Qasem Soleimani in Kerman province, named Abdullah Quetta, into the country.
According to this, the planner of the Kerman terrorist incident was a senior commander of the Taliban and ISIS in Afghanistan and played an important role in leading and guiding this group. ISIS claimed responsibility for these explosions, stating that two members of the group carried out suicide bombings.
In the Ministry of Intelligence’s statement regarding the details of the Shah Cheragh terrorist incident, it has been stated that in the operations related to this incident, 26 Takfiri elements were arrested, all of whom were non-Iranian and of Azerbaijani, Tajik, and Afghan nationalities.
The Ministry of Intelligence announced that the perpetrator of the terrorist operation entered Iran illegally through the eastern borders after passing through Tajikistan, Turkey, and Pakistan, and was trained in Badakhshan province, Afghanistan.
Also, in another previous terrorist action on April 5, 2022, an individual attacked three clerics with a knife at the shrine of the eighth Shia Imam.
One of these clerics, named Mohammad Aslani, died due to the inflicted injuries. The attacker of these three clerics was announced by the relevant authorities to be affiliated with a Takfiri group.
These terrorist incidents have occurred while the Minister of the Thirteenth Government believes that Afghan immigrants do not create a security challenge for Iran.
According to the fifteenth report of the United Nations Monitoring Group on ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Taliban, Afghanistan under Taliban supervision has become a safe haven for terrorist groups.
This report expresses concern about the security situation in Iran, Pakistan, and other Central Asian countries following the exit of ISIS-Khorasan members from Afghanistan. The report also adds that the largest terrorist group in Afghanistan is currently the Pakistani Taliban group.
The report estimates the strength of the Pakistani Taliban to be around 6,000 to 6,500 forces and adds that the Pakistani Taliban is currently the largest group among about ten groups that enjoy freedom of action under the supervision of the Afghan Taliban in this country.
The United Nations report reveals that NATO weapons have fallen into the hands of the Pakistani Taliban after the coalition forces withdrew from Afghanistan.
Vladimir Voronkov, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Counter-Terrorism, in his latest statements, announced that ISIS-Khorasan has improved its financial and logistical capabilities over the past six months using the support of the Afghan and Central Asian diaspora communities.
Concerns that Afghanistan might once again become a haven for terrorism in the region intensified after a few months following the Taliban’s return to power, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al-Qaeda, was killed in a U.S. drone strike in August 2022 while living with his family in Kabul.