CIA’s Analysis of China’s Military Action Against Taiwan
CIA’s Estimation of China’s Potential Attack on Taiwan by 2027
According to Iran Gate, CIA’s analysis of China’s military action against Taiwan reveals that Xi Jinping has put the army on alert, but after observing Russia’s issues in Ukraine, he is uncertain about completing the operation. William Burns, the CIA Director, disclosed this in his interview with CBS. Xi Jinping, China’s supreme leader, has instructed his army to be ready for an attack on Taiwan by 2027, but the situation in Ukraine has raised doubts about China’s ability to carry out this military operation, causing Xi Jinping to hesitate.
Burns stated that Vladimir Putin’s setbacks in the Ukraine war might have influenced China’s outlook. He added, ‘I think they have looked at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, and this has probably reinforced some of their doubts.’ Some Western officials have warned that if Russia wins the war in Ukraine, it could encourage China regarding an attack on Taiwan.
Michael McCaul, a Republican representative in the U.S. Congress, said on Sunday that Xi is set to meet with Putin in Moscow next week. The timing of this meeting has not yet been confirmed by Moscow or Beijing. McCaul, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, referred to reports suggesting China’s intention to send drones to Russia.
McCaul said, ‘The fact that Xi and Putin are set to meet next week to discuss their unholy alliance and the sending of weapons for the Ukraine war is very disturbing to me because today it might be Ukraine, and tomorrow it could be Taiwan.’
Last month, Ely Ratner, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, claimed that the Pentagon believes China is planning to attack Taiwan by the end of the decade, but the U.S. can prevent it.
This Pentagon official claimed, ‘I think they intend to attack Taiwan, but I am fully convinced that China will not launch a major attack on Taiwan by the end of this decade.’
Taiwan and China separated in 1949 after a civil war that led to the Communist Party’s control of the mainland. Beijing believes that the 24-million-strong island of Taiwan is a part of China that has been separated from the mainland since 1949.
China has always considered Taiwan part of its territory and demands that all countries respect the One China principle and its territorial integrity. Although the U.S. does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, it has stated that it will support Taiwan if China takes military action against it.
The island remains autonomous but is not recognized by the United Nations or most countries. In 1979, U.S. President Jimmy Carter officially recognized the Beijing government and cut national ties with Taiwan.
However, William Burns, the head of one of the most powerful intelligence organizations, emphasized that it has not been definitively stated that China will attack Taiwan in 2027 or any other year, and our assessment to date is that Beijing’s leaders and military chiefs are not sure they can complete and accomplish this mission.
In this interview broadcast on Sunday, February 26, Burns said that the support of the United States and European allies for Ukraine following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion could currently serve as a potential deterrent for Chinese officials. Nonetheless, the CIA chief said that the West should take Xi Jinping’s threat to seize Taiwan very seriously, adding that this military action is always possible and stressed that the risk of a potential attack on Taiwan in the future could increase.