Fears and Hopes from Grossi’s Trip to Tehran
Fears and hopes from Grossi’s trip to Tehran. According to Iran Gate, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, finally arrived in Tehran at noon on Friday, March 3rd. This trip occurs amidst disputes between Iran and the Agency and the release of Grossi’s recent report regarding an 18-fold increase in Iran’s enriched uranium reserves under the JCPOA. Additionally, the latest Agency report found traces of uranium enriched up to 83.7%, and Iran has been asked to clarify this level of enrichment.
Iran has explained that this is very natural and a minor issue. However, shortly before Grossi’s trip to Tehran, Laura Rozen, in an article on the Diplomatic website, referred to recent remarks by Robert Malley, the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, and wrote that Malley stated the United States would await the results of Rafael Grossi’s trip to Iran at the end of the week before deciding on the next steps.
According to this report, Rob Malley, the U.S. envoy for Iran, said in a meeting with experts from the J Street think tank, a center-left pro-Israel group, on Thursday that the Director General is about to go to Iran. He has not yet released his report on Iran’s compliance or non-compliance with the NPT. Let’s wait for it, and then we will see what actions are appropriate.
Malley continued, saying, ‘We are in very close contact with the E3 and others around the world who are concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, and at that stage, we will decide.’ Malley refrained from commenting on the validity of the Wall Street Journal report, which claimed there was a disagreement between the U.S. and Europeans on whether Iran should be rebuked at the upcoming IAEA Board of Governors meeting for the 84% uranium found at the underground Fordow facility. Malley said the United States is still awaiting a more comprehensive assessment from the Agency on this matter.
The U.S. Special Envoy for Iran said, ‘Regardless of what we do, our concerns about Iran remain and do not go away. Concerns about Iran’s lack of cooperation with the Agency are one of them, and there are still several questions left unanswered by Iran. We need explanations about the discovery of uranium particles enriched to around 84% and are awaiting the IAEA’s own assessment and many other issues that the Agency will share with them.’
He continued, ‘Therefore, let’s not rush to conclusions about what we will or will not do. Let’s see what report the IAEA provides, and then there will be enough time to decide on the appropriate next steps.’ Meanwhile, the IAEA tweeted on Thursday that Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA, will travel to Tehran at the invitation of the Iranian government for high-level meetings and will return to Vienna late Saturday. Malley, regarding what expectations Grossi might have from Iran, said that it is up to the Agency.
He said, ‘It is up to the International Atomic Energy Agency.’ Malley, noting that last week an IAEA team led by Massimo Aparo, the Deputy Director General of the IAEA, visited Iran, continued, ‘I am sure they have made requests, and we will see if Iran is ready to show transparency.’
The cooperation they have failed to achieve for a long time now. Malley finally emphasized, ‘I do not want to speak on behalf of the Director General. This is really his job and his responsibility, and we have complete confidence in his professionalism, so we do not dictate to him what he should ask for or whether he is satisfied.’
The U.S. Awaits the Outcome of the Talks
But what do the words of Rob Malley and other American officials over the past week mean? Today, the U.S. neither wants the JCPOA nor wants the tension between Iran and the Agency, and consequently the West, to increase. Although the Europeans have always been a few steps ahead of the U.S. regarding Iran in recent months and are seeking to pass a resolution against Iran at this week’s Board of Governors meeting, the Americans are pursuing tactical, case-by-case, and thematic cooperation between Iran and the Agency. Their overall policy is not to focus on the JCPOA, and their strategy, until the end of Grossi’s trip, is also to avoid escalating tensions, which is reflected in Malley’s statements.
Regarding the U.S. not wanting the JCPOA, it should be noted that Washington officials have repeatedly emphasized that the JCPOA is not on their agenda. Of course, although they do not want the JCPOA, they also want to prevent a crisis escalation, so they do not want the limited cooperation channels between Iran and the Agency to be closed. In this regard, before Grossi’s trip to Tehran, an unexpected Agency report was released so that Iran would negotiate with the Director General under pressure.
Robert Malley has also emphasized this pressure and suspension situation, saying, ‘We have not yet decided to issue a resolution, and everything depends on Grossi’s trip. If Grossi’s trip to Iran yields results, it will probably prevent a crisis escalation and also prevent Iran from issuing a resolution at the Board of Governors meeting.’
On Sunday night, Laurence Norman, a Wall Street Journal reporter, tweeted about three possible outcomes of this trip. These three possible options are a broad safeguards agreement, an agreement on the frequency and repetition of inspections at Natanz and Fordow, and an unproductive trip. Now, if the third scenario that Norman predicted comes true and this trip is unproductive and without outcome, after Grossi leaves Tehran on Saturday night, the Western members of the Board of Governors will put the issuance of a new resolution against Iran on the agenda for Monday, March 6th.
What is Grossi Seeking?
Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, arrived in Tehran yesterday afternoon at the head of a high-ranking delegation from the Agency. This trip was in response to an invitation from Mohammad Eslami, Vice President and Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. Grossi was officially welcomed by Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesperson and Deputy for International, Legal, and Parliamentary Affairs of the Atomic Energy Organization.
During this two-day trip, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in addition to negotiating with the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization, also met with other high-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran. On Wednesday night, the French news agency, citing its sources, wrote that Grossi might meet with Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, during this trip. After holding meetings and negotiations with the officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Director General left Tehran for Vienna on the afternoon of Saturday, March 4th.