Struggle for a Seat
The struggle for a seat in the second round of the Islamic Consultative Assembly elections was held on May 11 to determine the fate of the remaining 45 seats. However, what is important for the conservatives is not the effort to capture the empty seats in Baharestan but the struggle they have initiated over the presidency of the Assembly. It’s not that they haven’t taken the presence of the remaining 45 representatives seriously, but a significant part of the radical conservative factions and those known as the super-revolutionaries have lined up against Qalibaf and his allies to such an extent that an unexpected event might occur in the composition of the twelfth Assembly’s board of directors.
Qalibaf’s four-year tenure as president has made him a claimant to the presidency, and losing this position would be a political defeat for him, especially to his own faction, which has long been openly opposed to him.
On one hand, the government is worried about his presidency in the twelfth Assembly and laying the groundwork for a future presidential bid. On the other hand, the super-revolutionaries have advanced their internal factional disputes to the point where they managed to make him the fourth on the list of Tehran’s elected representatives, with none of Qalibaf’s close associates among the 14 representatives who made it to the Assembly, leaving him a solitary commander in the twelfth Baharestan.
Although lobbying for the presidency continues intensely outside the Assembly, and some believe that the presidency will be decided outside the Assembly, ultimately, Qalibaf’s chances are high. However, if Qalibaf is eliminated in the board of directors’ election, he will be seated below and watch rival figures preside over an Assembly composed of radical conservatives.
This is all assuming Qalibaf does not withdraw from the Assembly, as rumors suggest that if he loses the chance to sit on the presidency seat, he might abandon simple representation.
Although this speculation does not align with Qalibaf’s temperament, and he would prefer to stay in the political game rather than be eliminated, especially when he sees his opponents attacking him from various platforms, such as when Raefi-Pour interpreted Qalibaf’s Teacher’s Day remarks as an attack on him, ensuring these targeted assaults over several months do not stop and the internal conservative disputes become more apparent than ever.
Meanwhile, Mohammad Mohajeri told Nameh News about the main rivals of Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf for the presidency of the next Assembly, saying that there are many attacks on Mr. Qalibaf. Three people, Mr. Zolnour, Agha Tehrani, and Nikzad, are threatening Mr. Qalibaf’s presidency seat. However, since the twelfth Assembly will be politically multi-factional, with none holding the majority, and these factions will have severe disagreements, this issue will prevent the Assembly president from being able to gather and manage the atmosphere.
He also believes that if Qalibaf becomes president of the Assembly, he will certainly face attacks and harsh criticisms from the Stability Front and the Trustees. In fact, the twelfth Assembly will be one of constant conflict.
Even if these conflicts are attempted to be controlled from outside the Assembly, the atmosphere will not move towards calm, and at certain points, these differences will certainly show themselves. Mohajeri also said regarding the possibility of Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf withdrawing from representation if he does not become president of the twelfth Assembly that Qalibaf is certainly not Hashemi Rafsanjani, who would have other opportunities if he is not president.
If Mr. Qalibaf does not become president, he will not resign from representation in the Assembly because if he resigns, he will lose even the role he can play in the Assembly.
Even if Qalibaf does not become president, he can form a faction of 60 to 70 members in the Assembly and influence equations and decision-making with it, creating power for himself. However, if he withdraws from representation, he will effectively be finished. Overall, even if Mr. Qalibaf becomes president in the future Assembly, he will not be an effective and powerful president.
In any case, what is important is that amid these internal factional disputes, sometimes accompanied by unethical behavior, there is no news of presenting ideas for improving the Assembly’s performance or raising the necessity of regulating laws in the Assembly or organizing the flawed expectations of representatives from representation and not repeating crises like SUV privileges.
The only focus of the conservative currents is whether Qalibaf remains president of the Assembly or someone else becomes president. Naturally, this lack of ideas has not changed in the second round of elections, and it continues to revolve around the same axis of idea-lessness and the ongoing struggle for power acquisition, and what is apparently unimportant is the national interest, while what is important is the party and factional interests that have led the eleventh Assembly to decline.