Confrontation with Hezbollah Backed by the U.S.
For the past eleven months, global attention has been focused on the Gaza Strip as Israeli forces have been engaged in military operations against Hamas. While the major conflict in Gaza has dominated the news, Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, has continued to carry out airstrikes on northern Israel.
These attacks have displaced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes. On Tuesday morning, the Israeli security cabinet voted to add the safe return of the displaced to the official war objectives. This vote took place just hours after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein that he is not confident in a ceasefire agreement and that the only remaining way to ensure the return of northern Israeli communities to their homes is military action.
This decision follows months of unsuccessful mediation efforts by Hochstein and Biden administration officials. It was reported that on Tuesday, Hochstein told Gallant and others that military action will not guarantee the safety of Israeli civilians and instead increases the risk of a broader regional war. However, since many of Hochstein’s previous mediation efforts have failed and there is no other solution to the crisis on Israel’s northern border, Israeli leaders indicate they are compelled to mitigate this threat.
Hezbollah is Growing Stronger
Pressure from the Biden administration on Israel to prevent a broader conflict with Hezbollah has forced Israel into a series of low-intensity exchanges. For example, after twelve Israeli Druze children were killed, White House spokesman John Kirby said, ‘From our perspective, there is no reason for this issue to lead to a significant escalation.’ In line with the U.S. desire to prevent escalation, Israel conducted a targeted assassination operation against Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in July, which failed to reduce tensions.
While the White House may believe that limited conflicts are better than wide-ranging military operations, this strategy hinders Israel from achieving its security goals. This approach also brings the region closer to a broader conflict, as both sides gradually increase the scope of their attacks. This situation is exactly the scenario the U.S. is keen to prevent.
Furthermore, delaying the conflict gives Hezbollah the opportunity to enhance its capabilities as Iran injects more resources into it, further endangering U.S. interests. The 2024 annual threat assessment report from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence’s office states that Hezbollah seeks to limit U.S. influence in Lebanon and the broader Middle East, goals it shares with the Iranian government. The stronger Hezbollah becomes, the more capable it will be of threatening U.S. allies, forces, and influence in the region. In addition to countering Hezbollah’s objectives, U.S. involvement and support can help contain and deter Iran and demonstrate to Russia, China, and other countries that the U.S. continues to support its allies and is willing to maintain its influence in the region.
Since the Israeli military’s capabilities have been spread across multiple fronts since Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has taken advantage of this opportunity to test Israel’s air defense limitations. Hezbollah has also utilized its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to compile a list of significant military, civilian, and infrastructure targets in Israel. The full extent of Hezbollah’s military capabilities is unknown, but estimates suggest that the group possesses over 150,000 ground-to-ground missiles, more than ten times the number it had at the start of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Reports also indicate that the group has around 2,000 drones, 25,000 to 30,000 active forces, and a similar number of reserves. More importantly, these forces now have combat experience, having fought in Syria’s civil war in support of the Assad regime. Reports suggest that other fighters from Iraq and Syria are also coming to Lebanon to bolster Hezbollah’s ranks. This data indicates an increase in Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities over time. This threat is exacerbated by the potential for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons in the near future, which could create an ultimate deterrent by supporting Hezbollah.
The longer Israel waits to confront Hezbollah, the more time it gives Iran to arm and train its proxy and move toward producing a deliverable nuclear weapon, likely increasing the complexity and devastation of future conflicts.
Israel’s Need for U.S. Support
If Israel initiates military operations in southern Lebanon, it will need immediate arms sales and military assistance to ensure the efficiency of its forces in southern Lebanon and maintain the security of its population. Given the likely intensity of Hezbollah’s air attacks, the capacity of the Iron Dome and David’s Sling interception systems will be overwhelmed. To maintain the full functionality of Israel’s air defense systems, the U.S. must provide necessary military assistance so that Israel can acquire the vital equipment it needs.
To further support its ally, the U.S. should deploy necessary naval forces in the region to enhance cooperation between the two militaries and support Israel’s complex but vulnerable air defense systems. U.S. Central Command should coordinate regional efforts to neutralize Iranian missiles and attacks and those of its proxies, similar to what the U.S. did during Iran’s attack in April. Israel’s attack on Hezbollah’s missile launch platforms in August demonstrated Israel’s intelligence capabilities in predicting a large-scale attack.
To support these efforts, the U.S. can provide passive support through enhanced reconnaissance and targeting capabilities via Aegis and E2 Hawkeye systems, as well as broader information sharing. U.S. assistance in reconnaissance and targeting, combined with its regional efforts, will allow Israel to fully focus its capabilities on Hezbollah and position Israel in the best place to reduce the effectiveness of Hezbollah’s airstrikes.
The last way the U.S. can assist Israel’s efforts is by providing explicit support on the international stage. Following the October 7 attacks, Israel received widespread support for its military operations in Gaza. As the war continues and public exposure to the violence of urban warfare and information warfare campaigns against Israel increases, this international support has waned. Israel’s operations in Lebanon would be logical, as Hezbollah has targeted Israel since October 8, 2023, launching over 7,500 ballistic rockets and drones since then. Malicious actors on the international stage will attempt to delegitimize Israel’s actions. To support the rules-based international system, it is important for the U.S. to support military operations that defend the sovereignty of a democratic and allied state.
While many Americans are understandably concerned about their country becoming involved in another war in the Middle East, Israeli officials have stated that, despite their forces being drawn to multiple fronts, they are prepared to do the bulk of the work. Israel will need U.S. support through military aid, intelligence, missile defense support, and explicit support on the international stage. There are clear reasons for the U.S. to support this effort, as confronting Iran by weakening Hezbollah improves regional stability by reducing Iran’s strongest deterrent threat against Israel. Additionally, by further weakening Hezbollah, Israel can play a greater role in combating Iran’s proxies, which in turn strengthens U.S. security interests in the region.
Just as supporting Ukraine allowed the U.S. to weaken one of its close competitors without deploying military forces, supporting Israel gives the U.S. the opportunity to weaken another actor, namely Iran, without American forces being present on the battlefield. The growing ties between U.S. adversaries worldwide, particularly China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, should be addressed, and the most effective way to do so is by leveraging the U.S.’s powerful network of alliances.
By supporting Israel’s efforts to secure its northern border, the U.S. can demonstrate its resolve and restore its regional deterrence, sending a message to revisionist actors that it remains committed to defending its allies globally. This is particularly important as China, Russia, and Iran continuously work to solidify their geopolitical foothold in the region and seek to disrupt the U.S.’s role as the region’s security guarantor.
The Lebanese government cannot control Hezbollah’s actions and has, willingly or unwillingly, allowed Hezbollah to turn the country into an advanced operational base for Iran’s terrorist activities. Given this situation and Hezbollah’s direct attacks, it is understandable why Israel feels compelled to conduct military operations in southern Lebanon. While Israeli officials have made it clear they will fight alone if necessary, the U.S.’s strategic interests lie in supporting Israel as it seeks to eliminate the Hezbollah threat. Supporting Israel in this battle is a crucial step in deterring and containing Iran and demonstrates that the U.S. can provide credible security guarantees and prevent Russia and China from filling its power vacuum in the region.