Continuation of the current situation is not possible
Continuation of the current situation is not possible
1 Continuing the current conditions for the country is not possible, meaning the existing indicators and components show that our country is in a precarious situation, and maintaining the current conditions imposes significant costs on the governance and additional pressures on society.
No one says or wants our national dignity and pride to be tarnished.
Certainly, we must formulate and pursue our foreign policy strategies based on dignity, wisdom, and expediency. However, the point is that in the current situation, the policy of neither war nor negotiation practically provides an opportunity for others to decide about the Islamic Republic and Iran.
In other words, if we continue with this situation, instead of actively participating in the international system and striving to pursue the country’s national interests, we become the subject of negotiations raised by major powers, and without any benefits accruing to our country, we become a bargaining chip and a matter of trade for them.
From this perspective, I emphasize that there must be a reconsideration in the country’s policies, especially in the area of foreign policy. It is essential to note that our country’s foreign trade is not with many countries.
We have relations with a limited number of countries worldwide, and this has imposed significant costs on Iran’s economy.
For example, due to the conditions arising from sanctions, we are forced to sell our oil at high discounts.
Or those countries that are our trading partners constantly raise new demands and expectations, imposing significant costs on society. Based on this, we have no choice but to reconsider our policies.
2 In the current situation, it is necessary for the government to have an assessment of the extent of society’s resilience.
The government must assess which segments of society are most at risk of harm due to the combination of these policies, sanctions, currency fluctuations, the devaluation of the national currency, and the reduction in people’s purchasing power. Without precise data and approach, policy-making is not possible.
The next point is that judging the future based on a series of unsupported slogans and spending from people’s pockets will make the situation very difficult.
It seems that our government is lacking in political and social think tanks, and I do not know of any place in the government that has considered the social consequences of the foreign policy situation that the country is entangled in and then based on this thought, has made policies.
This is a very serious weakness, and there are no signs that policies have been made based on this thinking.
Experts must warn about this weakness and say that society’s resilience is not limitless.
The overall conditions and social and economic indicators, like a thermometer, show that Iranian society is in a very difficult and worrying situation.
3 Among the quickest policies to yield results is foreign policy. Therefore, if there is an opening in the country’s foreign policy, the economic conditions will change significantly and will manifest.
Following this, people’s living conditions will improve, trade exchanges will occur, and the country will emerge from this situation.
However, if we do not succeed in reaching a consensus with major powers, negotiate, and do not achieve results based on national interests, the continuation of the current conditions will make the situation very difficult, and it is then that we will need different policies.
4 Different policy-making means that we must be able to make maximum use and efficiency of the country’s existing capacities, attract the set of investments in the country, create special conditions for entrepreneurs, build high trust between society and the government, make changes in policies and approaches, make our social policies more supportive concerning vulnerable groups, and reconsider our cultural and social policies concerning the middle class, and change some of the constraints created by narrow-mindedness. This means that our effort should be that the only factor causing dissatisfaction in society should be the economic conditions, which to some extent are beyond our control, and we are forced to make decisions about them based on national interests. However, we must strive to reduce other causes of dissatisfaction to almost zero.
5 The next noteworthy point is that, in the current conditions of Iran and the region, prediction and forecasting are very difficult, and we can analyze at most on a week-to-week or month-to-month basis. However, what can be analyzed from the overall conditions is that it does not show stable conditions and we are witnessing a kind of instability.
For example, in foreign affairs, it seems unlikely that Israel and Trump can continue in this manner.
It seems the region is undergoing a transformation towards a new order.
In this new order, if we act actively, we will undoubtedly have our place as before, but the more passive we are, the more our country’s position and national interests will be affected.
6 One of the important points is that we must believe that national power is not only in military weapons.
Undoubtedly, missiles and the country’s defensive advancements have been power-building, and no one confirms that the system should lose this power, or even if someone wants to trade this power, society will certainly not accept it.
However, the point is that if we are an economic power in the region, our trade balance will be different from the current situation. If our budget number is much larger and our foreign trade volume increases, naturally other powers and countries will interact with us differently.
An Iran that is economically a powerful country and one of the largest economic hubs in the region will be less vulnerable compared to an Iran that only relies on military potential for politics. Overall, our statesmen’s efforts should be to turn Iran into an economic power. In today’s world, this will not be possible without trade exchanges with the world and without open-door policies in the economic sphere.