Cracks in the Unified Parliament
Cracks in the unified parliament are being seriously pursued by the three main factions of the twelfth parliament. They have held their initial meetings and will finalize their composition next week before the inauguration.
This report looks at the most important factions whose presence in the twelfth parliament is certain, and also considers the possibility of the principlists splitting into two groups in the twelfth parliament. It is important to note that the factions examined in this report are those that either have a large number of representatives or can be influential in the internal dynamics of the parliament.
Islamic Revolution Faction
Among the main factions whose formation in the twelfth parliament is certain and likely to have a large number of members is the Islamic Revolution Faction. This faction’s roots go back to the eighth parliament, and it has been present in various terms since then.
In the current eleventh parliament, this faction is also active, chaired by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
However, there is a possibility that the name of this faction may change in the twelfth parliament. This was stated by Abolfazl Aboutorabi on April 25 in an interview with IRNA. The elected members of the twelfth parliament decided in their meetings to form a political faction in the twelfth parliament, and the foundation of such a faction has been laid in these meetings. Until a final name is chosen for this faction and the remaining representatives are determined in the second round of elections, it has been decided that the name of this faction will remain the Islamic Revolution Faction.
The official start of programs to organize this faction began at the beginning of the current year in May and is progressing.
In early May, the first meeting to decide on this faction was held, and these individuals were selected as the executive board members of the faction: Nasrollah Pejmanfar, Reza Taghipour, Ali Khazrian, Hamid Rasaei, Mohsen Zanganeh, Malek Shariati, Jalil MirMohammadi, Mohammad Taghi Naghdali, and Mojtaba Yousefi.
Next week, this faction will have another important meeting. Malek Shariati said on May 15 to journalists about the upcoming meeting that on Tuesday, May 21, the first meeting of the Islamic Revolution Faction of the twelfth parliament will be held to approve the statute, bylaws, and the executive board of this faction.
So far, the temporary executive board of the Islamic Revolution Faction has held four meetings. For the general assembly meeting of the Islamic Revolution Faction next week, 200 elected members have been invited.
Unity with Everyone Except Two Groups One of the important points about this faction, at least at the beginning, is that the main organizers seem to be trying to create maximum unity among the principlists within the parliament.
This can be inferred from the composition of the executive board and from a statement made by Seyed Mahmoud Nabavian.
On May 14, in an interview with Fars News Agency, he said that unity is necessary to solve people’s problems and emphasized that obedience to the Supreme Leader’s directives is a religious duty. The faction was formed for this purpose.
In fact, we have invited almost all friends of the Islamic Revolution. The first meeting was held, the goals were explained, and about 40 people were invited as the founders of this faction for the twelfth parliament. Friends from all groups of the revolution, from the coalition trustees, were present.
For example, Mr. Mottaki and Mr. Rasaei were invited. We may have disagreements on some specifics and some solutions, which is very natural. These disagreements should be resolved within the faction. We will also ask those who were not invited to join us.
However, alongside the effort for unity, as stated by important members of the faction, there are two significant red lines for joining the faction. The first is reformists and those close to them, which has been explicitly stated by a member of the executive board.
Malek Shariati, in an interview with Fars News Agency on April 18, said that any give-and-take between the revolutionary elected members and reformists in the twelfth parliament is a red line that should not be crossed. If the elected members of the twelfth parliament seek transformation, which they should, it is important to note that addressing the country’s fundamental issues and solving economic problems is possible in the shadow of unity, especially among the majority in parliament.
The revolutionary elected members of the twelfth parliament must adhere to the requirements of unity and not allow the insinuations of the revolution’s rivals to empower reformists and weaken the revolutionary movement. This is possible by forming a unified Islamic Revolution Faction that recognizes various preferences within it.
In addition to reformists, it seems that an important decision of this faction is to distance itself from a new movement that has emerged within the principlists.
Although the name of the Sobhe Iran Front, led by Ali Akbar Raefipour, has not been mentioned as a red line, Ali Khazrian, in an interview with ISNA on May 1, gave hints that might be directed towards Raefipour.
Khazrian said that with cohesion among revolutionary forces, some lobbyists will not be allowed to implement the creation of several factions in the twelfth parliament. This is the same thing that happened in the tenth parliament and led to the division into three factions.
The formation of three factions in the twelfth parliament means that opportunists and lobbyists will be in the game and will shift directions daily, ultimately playing with the views of the revolutionary movement in the parliament for their own interests, which results in damage to the record of revolutionary forces in the Islamic Consultative Assembly.
We must not allow anyone outside the parliament to plan for the majority faction. All planning and designing for creating the majority faction must be done within the parliament and by the elected representatives of the people, resulting in a majority faction that includes all views and movements within the revolutionary movement.
The Issue of Parliament Presidency Given that this faction is likely to have the largest number of members in the twelfth parliament, the internal developments of the faction to determine the new parliament president seem important. So far, there have been two statements about the main options of the faction for the presidency of the parliament. Initially, Abolfazl Aboutorabi, in his interview with IRNA on May 5, said that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is holding individual and group meetings with the elected members of the twelfth parliament with the topic and agenda of the future parliament presidency.
Additionally, Mojtaba Zolnouri, Ali Nikzad, and Manouchehr Mottaki have also planned individual and group meetings with the elected members of the twelfth parliament to introduce themselves as candidates for the parliament presidency and present their programs.
However, the second statement regarding the faction’s situation concerning the future presidency of the parliament seems more significant than what Aboutorabi said.
In part of his interview with Fars News Agency on May 14, Seyed Mahmoud Nabavian said that the presidency of Mr. Ghalibaf, Mottaki, and Zolnouri is being discussed. I might vote for Mr. A, and you might vote for Mr. B, which is fine. The philosophy of forming the faction was to resolve these differences within the faction, meaning friends come here and argue why Mr. A yes and Mr. B no.
In addition to these statements, two recent waves among the present thoughts in the faction can indicate that even holding an internal faction election to introduce the final option of the faction for the parliament presidency can have significant side issues and even lead to another surprise in the principlist movement, where either a single option from this faction is not introduced for the parliament presidency, resulting in the presence of two candidates from this faction competing for the parliament presidency, breaking their votes, or even a figure like Ghalibaf might face issues in winning the internal faction vote.
On one hand, the 9th of Dey weekly, where Hamid Rasaei, one of the members present in the executive committee of the Islamic Revolution Faction and a member of the central council of Sharyan, is the editor-in-chief, in its recent issue published on May 14, dedicated its main headline titled Ghalibaf’s Change is Certain to the end of Ghalibaf’s tenure in the parliament presidency and wrote that with the announcement of the second-round election results and the majority of the anti-corruption transformation movement in the parliament, Ghalibaf’s change is certain.
Moreover, Hamid Rasaei explained his position on his Telegram channel to show that their determination and that of their like-minded individuals not to vote for Ghalibaf is serious.
In part of Hamid Rasaei’s note, it was mentioned that Ghalibaf, as the top candidate of the status quo stabilization movement, despite years of military command, command of the police force, 12 years as Tehran’s mayor, and four years as Tehran’s representative and parliament president, and four years ago receiving over 1.2 million votes from Tehran’s people, and some of his advisors saying that his coat would win votes with 29 dry sticks in Tehran, was surprisingly faced with a two-thirds reduction in votes despite the same level of participation, and his vote basket was reduced to 400,000 votes, making him the fourth in Tehran. All of these indicate a reality that people want change and transformation.
It is natural that the symbol of this change and transformation should be reflected in the showcase and management of the parliament. People expect their meaningful discouragement to be heard, and from the future parliament, the voice of justice and the fight against corruption should be heard.
However, a day later, the Sobhe No newspaper, which is considered close to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responded to the 9th of Dey’s main headline and in its main headline on May 16, using a report published by Tasnim, wrote Ghalibaf is the First Chance for Parliament Presidency.
In the Tasnim report, it was written that most representatives support Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s presidency, and one of these elected members told the Tasnim reporter that 120 representatives who have so far confirmed their presence in the majority faction support Mr. Ghalibaf’s presidency.
He also emphasized that among the remaining elected members, about 115, including 65 independents and 50 reformists, also have a strong inclination towards Mr. Ghalibaf among the proposed options for the presidency. Regarding the faction presidency, no serious discussion has taken place yet, and only one of the faction members made a brief comment on this issue. Hossein Ali Haji Deligani said on May 15 in an interview with Borna News Agency that from the beginning, the discussion was that the parliament president should not be the faction president. In fact, the faction president should be a separate independent personality from the official position of the executive board, indicating that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf must choose between the parliament presidency and the faction presidency and cannot hold both positions like the past four years.
In the meantime, although no official statement has been made about the faction presidency option, on May 5, Khabar Online published a short report titled Nabavian’s Move for Leadership of the Revolution Faction in the Future Parliament, which was circulated on principlist websites, mentioning that Nabavian intends to sideline Ghalibaf and become the faction president, as in the meeting held to select the executive board members, Nabavian was the opening speaker.
Sobhe Iran or Masaf or Transparency Faction
Among the two new factions that are to be formed in the twelfth parliament, it is likely that we will witness the birth of another principlist faction, which will be centered outside the parliament and led by Ali Akbar Raefipour, the secretary-general of the Sobhe Iran Front.
Raefipour himself confirmed the formation of a faction after the first round of elections. In his press conference held on March 13 last year, he said that negotiations with the elected members continue, but he does not deny the formation of this faction. Our priority is to form the Transparency Faction.
We are also pursuing the formation of our own faction, whether it exists or not. There are those who are passionate about this movement, and thus the formation of an independent faction is also being pursued.
The issue of forming this faction became serious when, in recent days, with the release of financial documents of the Masaf Institute by a figure close to the parliament president, tensions and conflicts between Ali Akbar Raefipour and his supporters with principlists close to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reached their peak. In this context, it might not be surprising if the representatives who entered the parliament through the Sobhe Iran Front list do not join the Islamic Revolution Faction and form a separate faction. Additionally, the extensive disagreement between Sharyan and the parliament president mentioned in the previous section might lead Raefipour and his supporters in the parliament to lean towards the rival option of Ghalibaf in the vote for the new parliament president.
Independent or Moderate Faction
Alongside the two principlist factions, one of which is certain to be formed, the Islamic Revolution Faction, and one likely, the Transparency or Sobhe Front, the formation of another faction in the twelfth parliament has been confirmed, centered on representatives who are either reformist or close to reformists or have a more moderate approach compared to other principlists.
They are set to form the Independents Faction, although the exact name of this faction has not yet been determined. They began their plans from the beginning of May, but the final meeting was postponed until after the second round. However, with the composition of the representatives determined, they are also likely to hold their meeting with all members present in the coming days before the inauguration ceremony.
In any case, those who were elected in the first round have held meetings.
Masoud Pezeshkian said in his interview with Ensaf News on May 8 that we only held a meeting with the elected representatives regarding the northwest and discussed the demands of the region and surrounding provinces.
If we coordinate and demand based on the law, frameworks, and justice, we can be more effective compared to acting individually.
Following this, Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh, who chaired this faction in the eleventh parliament, announced the holding of the initial meeting and the determination of the founding board’s composition. According to him, these individuals form the founding board of the faction: Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh, Mehrdad Lahouti, Fereydoun Hemmati, Ahmad Bakhshayesh, Gholamreza Tajgardoon, Fathollah Toosli, Hossein Zadeh, Mohammad Bagheri Benab, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, Nasirpour, Maryam Abdollahi, Ghodrati, Seyed Farid Mousavi, and Mostafa Pour Dehqan.
Sahra Ghomis Regarding the number of independent members who have entered the twelfth parliament, significant numbers have been reported. Before the second round of elections, Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh, in an interview with Borna News Agency on May 4, said that the number of friends who came with an independent, reformist, or moderate approach in the twelfth parliament is more than double that of the eleventh parliament, and perhaps with over 80 representatives, negotiations have taken place, and the intention is to have a cohesive and organized faction to have more influence on the issues of the twelfth parliament.
With representatives entering the parliament in the second round, the faction members will exceed 90, which is an influential number.
At the same time, Masoud Pezeshkian told Ensaf News on May 8 that based on the raw information we received and the news from our friends, we realized that there are close to 60 to 80 representatives who can be said to be more moderate than the others, and the upcoming parliament will be different from the current one. However, after the second round of elections, this number grew even larger. Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh said in an interview with Jamaran on May 13 that in the second stage of the twelfth parliament elections, 13 candidates with an independent approach entered the twelfth parliament.
The number of members of the independent representatives’ faction in the process of being established approached 100, and hopes for forming a parliament that can seriously pursue public demands increased.
Presidency and Executive Board of the Parliament Regarding the plans of this faction for electing a new president or executive board, no specific names have been announced yet. However, what is clear is that given the significant number of members in this faction, they can have a high impact. Nouri Ghezeljeh said on May 11 in an interview with Donyaye Eghtesad that it is not ruled out that we might have a candidate for the parliament presidency from our group, and this possibility exists for both the presidency and other positions.
For this reason, I do not deny this possibility, but even if we have a candidate for the parliament presidency, we must certainly have interaction with other factions in the parliament.
Masoud Pezeshkian also told Ensaf News on May 10 that I currently have no decision to run for the presidency or vice-presidency of the twelfth parliament, but the final decision in this regard depends on the opinion of the moderate faction, and we will act based on that.
In this regard, we will strive to make happen whatever conclusion the moderate faction reaches.
Second Step Faction
One of the factions that was founded in the eleventh parliament is the Second Step Faction, which is based on youthfulness and is currently pursuing its programs for the second four-year term of activity. They held a meeting for the twelfth parliament on May 14, a meeting where prominent political and principlist figures such as Mohsen Rezaee and Hadi Tahan Nazif were the main speakers.
Although it is said that the foundation of this faction is based on the presence of young members, the definition of youth according to the faction’s designers is that people are considered young until they reach the age of 50. As Mohsen Zanganeh, who chairs this faction in the eleventh parliament, said about the twelfth term of the Second Step Faction before its first meeting, about 85 to 90 elected representatives of the twelfth parliament, aged 40 to 49, will participate in this meeting, and there is no list or political boundary in this regard, and everyone was invited to attend.
However, the important point about this faction is that they claim the formation of this faction is separate from political issues and focuses on non-political programs. As Mohsen Zanganeh said in a meeting on May 14, we young representatives of the parliament were not involved in lobbying or some demands; the purpose of forming the Second Step Faction is to lead substantive and legislative work alongside political and specialized factions in the future parliament.
In matters such as capital gains tax, women’s and family support law, budget structure reform, facilitating business license issuance, and other enacted laws, the footprint of youth is visible, and transformation should be sought in these gatherings.
Solving the Equation with Independents
Based on what was mentioned about the important factions of the twelfth parliament, the clear point is that the largest population is in the Islamic Revolution Faction, but the issue becomes interesting when the election of a new parliament president is a serious point of contention among principlists.
Some are inclined to continue Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s presidency over the legislative branch, while others are firmly opposed to it. It is at this time that the role of the Independents Faction may become interesting.
If the claim made by the prominent figures of this faction is true and between eighty to a hundred representatives who are members of this faction give a unified vote in the executive board election, then the independent parliament members’ vote could be influential in the principlists’ dispute, and perhaps the independents, or as some call them moderates, could gain leverage in the composition of the executive board.