The Day of Destiny
The debate between the two American election rivals will be held on Tuesday, hosted by ABC network. Journalists, reporters, and experts have headed to Philadelphia, the city where the debate will take place, from the start of the week to cover various news.
Trump and Harris have never faced each other in person before. During Trump’s presidency, which coincided with Harris’s senatorial term, the two did not meet face-to-face. Trump also did not attend Biden’s inauguration ceremony after the electoral coup, which was a heavily criticized move, thus missing the last opportunity for the two to meet.
Unlike Trump, Harris has limited her public appearances significantly and has been in a hotel in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with a group of advisors to study and review various topics. A special individual has also played Trump’s role in the mock debates. This particular person is the same one who prepared Hillary for debating Trump in 2016 and helped her overcome her fear of facing Trump, especially after his infamous tape confessing to his fondness for sexual harassment of women was revealed. This advisor, now Harris’s advisor, is known for being ruthless and blunt, and reports suggest he refuses to take off the outfit modeled after Trump’s attire, fully immersing himself in the role.
Aside from all this, this is where both rivals must change the equations. Currently, the average of credible polls, according to experts from platforms that average out polls and select credible ones based on their specific criteria, narrates a favorable situation for Trump. A lead of less than three percent for Harris at the federal level and her lead not exceeding two or three percent in some key states means that if Trump repeats the trend of the previous two elections and his vote surpasses what the polls show, he will win. Based on the comparison of the popular vote and key state votes, Democrats must be assured of more than a 4% victory at the federal level to reflect that victory in key states, and this victory also occurred narrowly and with much difficulty in key states in 2020. Harris must change the equation, but Trump must also rise above this situation. The New York Times poll, which showed him one percent ahead of his rival at the federal level, has provided him with great confidence and led bookmakers to conclude that his chance of victory is higher. But how stable is this condition for him?
Pollsters, after the disastrous predictions in 2016 and Trump’s strong performance in 2020 that questioned their poll results, have changed the weighting pattern of the results. The process applied to the initial results by pollsters is different from the past. Naturally, Trump’s campaign faces the question of how much the polls align with reality. If pollsters have included the silent segment more than before in their polls, Trump must also think of a strategy.
In this situation, the two rivals must show themselves and address special topics in the debate. Both rivals must demonstrate that they are the candidates of change. A recent New York Times poll showed that more than 50% of respondents believe Trump is the candidate of change, and this figure for Harris is half of Trump’s. Harris is Biden’s vice president, and the disillusionment of various American groups with Biden is attributed to her. Harris must show that she has intellectual and operational independence from Biden. On the other hand, Trump must show that he is the representative of positive change and not a candidate of collapse and chaos. He must create new confidence in the minds of the audience. If he succeeds in this, he will have achieved a great feat. Harris must show that she has ideas. We have repeatedly narrated before that she and her campaign have seriously and deliberately avoided delving into details on various topics. Here and at this point, she must show specific details of her approach without creating new sensitivity and tension. She has previously announced her economic plan, which has not yet reassured the audience. The economy and livelihood are areas where she must delve into some details. Naturally, Trump will also refer to inflation and prices during Biden’s era. It remains to be seen if Trump can speak empathetically with the middle class about his ideas or if he will merely attack and criticize. On the issue of immigrants, Harris desperately needs to present a solid and detailed policy, which is a strong point for Trump.
Harris must find a way to deal with Trump’s lies. In the debate with Biden, Trump made nearly forty false claims. The Trump campaign’s precondition for the debate is that moderators do not intervene in the discussion and correct the candidates’ statements. Harris does not have a free hand to counter Trump’s lies because if she spends her time on this issue, there won’t be time left for her own words.
Ultimately, the key to attracting the silent vote is the combination of change and authority. This silent vote is the vast segment that is not present in the polls, and their opinion is included in the results through the weighting of polling institutions. Trump’s campaign has previously demonstrated its high ability to attract the votes of those who usually do not vote. It remains to be seen how many of these Americans can be attracted this year. Harris must link authority and change to attract these votes and showcase it in the debate.
Harris insists that she and her supporters should consider themselves behind their rivals and make every effort. This debate is now decisive. Contrary to the perception, September and the period we are in is a time when several famous American races have changed their fate. George Bush was behind his rival until August in the 1988 election. His son also caught up with Al Gore in the 2000 election polls in this same September. Most importantly, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, in situations where a two to three percent lead was not enough according to the pattern we narrated, fell behind McCain and Romney in this same September period and then made a comeback.
Harris is in a tough situation, but all third-millennium presidents except Biden experienced this situation in their campaigns and won, especially Trump, who surpassed all polls. Harris has reached the day of destiny.