Day of Destiny
The debate between the two American election rivals will be held on Tuesday, hosted by ABC Network. Journalists, reporters, and experts have headed to Philadelphia, the city where the debate will take place, since the beginning of the week to cover various news.
Trump and Harris have never met face-to-face before. During Trump’s presidency, which coincided with Harris’s senatorial term, they did not meet, and Trump did not attend Biden’s inauguration after the electoral coup, which was a move that was heavily criticized, thus missing the last opportunity for them to meet face-to-face.
Unlike Trump, Harris has significantly limited her public appearances and has been in a hotel in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with a group of her advisors, studying various topics. A special individual has also played the role of Trump in hypothetical debates. This particular person is the same one who trained Hillary for her debate with Trump in 2016, helping her overcome her fear of facing Trump, whose infamous tape admitting to liking sexual harassment of women was revealed at the time. This advisor, who is now advising Harris, is known for being ruthless and unapologetic, and reports suggest he refuses to take off the outfit modeled after Trump’s attire, fully immersing himself in the role.
All these aside, this is where both rivals need to change the equations. Currently, the average of credible polls, according to experts from platforms that calculate averages and select credible polls based on their specific criteria, narrate a favorable situation for Trump. A lead of less than three percent for Harris at the federal level, and her lead not exceeding two or three percent in some key states, means that if Trump repeats the trend of the previous two elections and his vote surpasses what the polls show, he will win. Based on the comparison of the general vote results and the key states’ votes, Democrats need to ensure more than a four percent victory at the federal level for it to reflect victory in key states, a victory that was achieved with difficulty and a very narrow margin in key states in 2020. Harris needs to change the equation, but Trump also needs to go beyond this situation. The New York Times poll, which showed him one percent ahead of his rival at the federal level, has given him significant confidence and led the bettors to conclude that his chance of victory is higher. But how strong is this situation for him?
Pollsters have changed the pattern of weighting results following the disastrous predictions in 2016 and Trump’s strong performance in 2020, which questioned their poll results. The process applied by pollsters in estimating initial results is different from the past. Naturally, Trump’s campaign faces the question of how much the polls align with reality. If the silent spectrum inclined to support Trump has been included in their polls more than before, Trump also needs to think.
In this situation, both rivals need to show themselves and address special topics in the debate. Both must demonstrate that they are candidates for change. The latest New York Times poll shows that over 50 percent of respondents believe Trump is the candidate of change, and this figure for Harris is half of Trump’s. Harris, as Biden’s vice president, is associated with the disillusionment of various American groups with Biden. Harris needs to show that she has intellectual and operational independence from Biden. On the other hand, Trump needs to show that he represents positive change and is not a candidate for collapse and chaos. He must instill fresh confidence in the audience’s minds. If he succeeds in this area, he will have accomplished a great feat. Harris needs to show that she has ideas. We have repeatedly narrated before that she and her campaign have seriously and deliberately avoided delving into details on various topics. This is the point where she must reveal specific details of her approach without creating new sensitivities and tensions. She previously announced her economic program, which has not yet reassured the audience. The economy and livelihood are areas where she needs to delve into some details. Naturally, Trump will also point to inflation and prices during Biden’s era. We need to see if Trump can speak empathetically with the middle class about his ideas or if he will merely attack and criticize. Regarding immigration, Harris needs to present a strong and detailed policy, as this is a strong point for Trump.
Harris needs to think about Trump’s lies. In the debate with Biden, Trump made nearly forty false claims. The precondition of Trump’s campaign for the debate is the non-involvement of moderators in discussing and correcting the candidates’ statements. Harris’s hands are tied in countering Trump’s lies because if she spends her time on this issue, there will be no time left for her own words.
Ultimately, to attract the silent vote, the connection between change and authority is key. This silent vote is the vast segment not present in polls, and their opinion is factored into the results through the weighting by polling institutions. Trump’s campaign has previously demonstrated its high ability to attract the votes of people who usually do not vote. We need to see how many of these Americans can be attracted this year. Harris needs to connect authority and change to attract these votes and showcase it in the debate.
Harris insists that she and her supporters should consider themselves behind their rivals and do everything they can. This debate is now crucial. Contrary to the perception, September and the period we are in have been times when several famous American historical competitions have changed their fate. George Bush was behind his rival until August in the 1988 election. His son also caught up to Al Gore in the polls in this same September in the 2000 election. Most importantly, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, in conditions where a two to three percent lead wasn’t enough according to the pattern we narrated, fell behind McCain and Romney in this same September and then came back.
Harris is caught in a tough situation, but all the presidents of the third millennium, except Biden, have experienced this situation in their campaigns and won, especially Trump, who overcame all the polls. Harris has reached the day of destiny.