Erdogan’s Double Game with Iran
Erdogan’s Double Game with Iran
Perhaps now, after regional developments following the Al-Aqsa Storm operation and what has recently befallen Ukraine and Zelensky, we can consider the cliché statement that the logic of power and the law of the jungle govern international relations as the definitive and determining manifesto and paradigm of international relations. A framework and model wherein every country seeks to dominate, expand, and consolidate its power over other countries by any means possible, and in such relations, any unnecessary leniency and restraint end up being detrimental to practical interests and only embolden enemies.
Take Ukraine, where two global powers sit at the bilateral negotiation table to divide its spoils and do not even allow the head of state of the mentioned country to join the negotiations. Or a bit further, contrary to all conventions and legal norms, the Israeli Prime Minister, who has occupied hundreds of kilometers of Syrian land, warns the new rulers to evacuate a significant portion of Syria’s strategic and geopolitical areas.
Most interestingly, amid all this turmoil, Turkey’s Foreign Minister addresses Iran, warning and cautioning it about the potential for other countries to create unrest within Iran.
If Hakan Fidan’s intention was to respond reciprocally to the claim that Iran supports Kurdish opposition groups, which in recent years and months has seen no change in approach or significant development to justify such an assumption, except that Iran was the first country to react positively and support the proposal by Abdullah Öcalan to lay down the arms of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
Over the past decade, despite everyone knowing that the most important and sole logistical support and oil trade axis for the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, known as ISIS, took place through Turkey, Iran never directly or indirectly addressed Turkey, even in the Astana talks and after victories in Syrian field developments, Iran accepted Turkey as a representative of Syrian opposition, quite the opposite of what Turkey did after Assad’s fall and despite the presence of all regional countries, did not recognize any position for Iran.
Interestingly, in the 2016 Turkish coup attempt, Iran went all out for Erdogan’s government and used its geopolitical position at the height of the crisis to shift the rapid power balance.
In contrast, Erdogan’s Turkey in recent decades has only taken positive action towards Iran by facilitating economic exchanges under sanction conditions, from which it also benefited greatly, and as the saying goes, did not do Iran any favors.
Now, the question arises as to why Turkey’s Foreign Minister makes such unprecedented hostile and unfriendly statements against Iran. The Turks have always structured and delineated their relations with Iran based on interests and the logic of power. Erdogan’s Turkey harbors ambitions of reviving the Ottoman Empire and seeks to expand and consolidate regional power and assume leadership of the Islamic world, viewing relations with Iran within this very framework.
In bilateral relations in recent months, no significant or tangible shift has occurred except that the Turks have, in their view, replaced Iran in Syria and now feel superior. However, the current rulers of Damascus, who are under Ankara’s protection, have shown weakness and submission against Israel and the opposing Syrian Kurds, and cannot position the Turks as leaders of the Islamic world against Arab rivals.
Domestically, the pressure from critics and the threat of opposition parties gaining power have increased. With the PKK laying down arms, Kurds can no longer be suppressed or demonized under this pretext.
The Syrian quagmire also carries additional costs, and the end of the Ukraine war could reduce Turkey’s specific transit advantages in recent years. Here, Erdogan’s government throws stones at Iran to divert public attention from the destructive role of its lofty ambitions in the region towards Iran, which, in its view, now has a low wall following recent developments and is indebted to Turkey to escape the circle of sanctions. This point must be addressed with clarity, and the usual years-long considerations and unnecessary formalities must be set aside to neutralize Erdogan’s snakes and ladders game against Iran once and for all and discard it into the dustbin of regional and international relations.