Europe and the Challenge of an Independent Defense Strategy from America
Europe and the Challenge of an Independent Defense Strategy from America
Years ago, General Charles de Gaulle, the late President of France, criticized what he called Europe’s excessive dependence on the United States and during his time in power, he tried to reduce his country’s military dependence on America. After him, François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac, leaders who came to power in the Élysée, pursued more or less similar approaches. During periods like Gerhard Schröder’s chancellorship and the late years of Angela Merkel, German leaders also spoke of such an approach. However, over these decades, the idea of forming an independent European army and even something less than that, namely the formation of a common defense and security policy, has never gone beyond being a European dream.
Now, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, tensions between the two classic allies are set to escalate much sooner than in 2017, and alarm bells are ringing for European capitals. Emmanuel Macron, who is one of the biggest advocates of forming an independent European defense and security policy, has once again stepped into the arena and invited his counterparts to Paris to consider solutions for the current emergency situation.
But why, despite years of discussions, numerous meetings, and efforts for policy-making, has Europe never been able to implement such a strategy? It seems there are at least six obstacles in this path.
Dependence on NATO
Most European countries are NATO members, and their defense and military structure is heavily dependent on the United States.
This dependence is serious both in terms of military equipment and strategically, considering that the United States is the largest supplier to NATO.
The volume of U.S. investment in military affairs far exceeds that of other member countries of this alliance. In 2023, the U.S. spent about $860 billion on military affairs, while Germany, the United Kingdom, and France collectively spent less than $200 billion on their defense and military industries.
In terms of the number of soldiers and military personnel, the United States is also incomparable to European countries. According to statistics, in 2023, the U.S. had over 1.3 million active military personnel.
While the total number of soldiers in Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, and France was less than 750,000.
Additionally, the United States has numerous military bases across Europe, and if it decides to withdraw from this continent, European countries themselves would need to spend billions of dollars to compensate for this shortfall.
Technology and Weapons
Many European countries use American weapons systems, including the F-35 fighters, Patriot missiles, and intelligence and satellite systems. Without U.S. cooperation, maintaining and updating these weapons and systems would face significant challenges. In terms of nuclear capabilities, Europe is also significantly dependent on the United States. Faced with the threat of Russia, one of the world’s largest nuclear powers, Europe would have little chance of confronting Russia without America’s help.
The United States has deployed its nuclear weapons in several European countries, while only two countries, France and the United Kingdom, have a much smaller number of nuclear weapons. Therefore, if the United States steps aside, Europe would need to establish its own nuclear umbrella against Russia, which is both very costly and dangerous.
Intelligence and Security Coordination
European countries are heavily dependent on the U.S. in intelligence and security matters.
Agreements like the Five Eyes and extensive security cooperation with the United States form a significant part of Europe’s counter-terrorism and cybersecurity capabilities.
The Five Eyes alliance is an intelligence agreement between five English-speaking countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
This alliance was established in 1946 with the signing of the UKUSA Agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom, and other countries later joined. The main goal of this alliance is to collect and share information.
Although EU member countries like Germany and France are not official members of the Five Eyes, they have close cooperation with this alliance, and the influence and impact of the United States on European security policies cannot be overlooked. Additionally, cybersecurity cooperation between Europe and the United States addresses a significant portion of the threats that the green continent faces in this area.
Financial Issues and Defense Budget
Most European countries spend much less on defense compared to the United States, and in the event of striving for military independence, they would have to bear huge costs to develop their defense capabilities. Even now, many European countries do not meet the agreement to allocate two percent of their GDP to military industries, which has been approved in NATO.
In 2024, the U.S. defense budget was $967 billion, while the combined defense budget of European countries in the same year was reported to be about $380 billion. As a result, the U.S. share of the total NATO budget is estimated at around 72 percent, while the share of European countries is only about 28 percent.
Internal Differences in Europe
Since its inception, the European Union has lacked a unified military force and a single decision-making system in its defense policies, and EU member countries have different interests and priorities in geopolitical areas.
For example, eastern countries like Poland and the Baltic states have greater security concerns regarding threats from Russia and emphasize strengthening NATO’s presence in the region.
In contrast, western countries like France and Germany are inclined to strengthen the EU’s defense independence and reduce dependency on NATO. These differences lead to disagreements over common defense and security policies.
However, now that the United States has decided, as Donald Trump’s Secretary of Defense says, not to focus its main attention on European security, a new excuse and reason for greater convergence between Eastern and Western countries may arise.
Right-Wing Leaders in Power, Nationalist Politicians Awaiting
Although Emmanuel Macron has been speaking about the idea of forming an independent European army for years, his position and popularity within the country are not comparable to previous French leaders who spoke of such ideas.
Mr. Macron has faced many challenges in recent years from right-wing movements led by Marine Le Pen.
In Germany, as polls show, Olaf Scholz is nearing the end of his term, and after the federal elections this month, he will likely no longer be Germany’s chancellor. Although the right-wing does not come to power in Germany, poll results show that public support for them has reached an unprecedented level.
In Italy, a right-wing leader with close ties to Washington is already in power. Giorgia Meloni also has friends in Eastern Europe like Viktor Orbán, who is considered a serious critic of Brussels and the European Union.
Some of these right-wing groups fundamentally disagree with the idea that Russia is a threat and consider the wrong policies of their moderate leaders a significant part of the problem of escalating tensions with Moscow. As a result, under such conditions, achieving convergence and reaching a common definition and concept for European military and defense independence seems very challenging and difficult.
Although with the ideas of the new U.S. administration, there may ultimately be revisions in the EU’s overall strategies regarding the United States, the obstacles ahead seem so serious that they lead to cautious and skeptical commentary about its dimensions.
