Europe on the Ukrainian Front
Von der Leyen in Kyiv to show Europe’s support for Ukraine
Europe on the Ukrainian Front: Following the European Parliament’s vote, Von der Leyen heads to Kyiv. Zelensky: ‘We want peace, not frozen conflict.’ Ursula Von der Leyen made her first visit to Ukraine since the start of her second term as President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen discussed Europe’s support for Ukraine with President Volodymyr Zelensky a day after the European Parliament’s vote authorizing the use of Western weapons in Russia and readiness for winter. In fact, about half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed due to Russian bombings, causing power outages in all regions of the country for hours.
The President stated that all of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have lost power and explained that the heating season will start in two weeks. He emphasized that the aim is relentless attacks on Ukraine’s non-military energy infrastructure to cause maximum damage. He added that Europe will assist Ukraine in its brave efforts to overcome this issue.
Resolution on Destabilization
This trip takes place one day after the European Parliament, by adopting a non-binding resolution, asks member countries to allow Ukraine to use its weapons to launch military attacks on legitimate targets in Russian territory. By doing so, the Strasbourg Assembly wants the 27 members to overcome silence and restrictions and allow Ukraine to fully exercise its right to self-defense.
The resolution was passed with 425 in favor, 131 against, and 63 abstentions. The issue of using Western arms in Russian territory has long been the main topic of debate between supportive governments, convinced that authorizing attacks in Russian territory is the only way to force Moscow to negotiate, and opponents who are always concerned that such a decision may have the opposite effect and lead to escalation of conflict.
The approved text also calls for strengthening sanctions against Iran and North Korea due to their military support for Moscow, and urges the European Union and the international community to establish a legal regime for seizing blocked Russian assets as part of efforts to compensate for the extensive damages inflicted on Ukraine.
One million victims
Meanwhile, the total number of casualties of one million people since the beginning of the conflict on both fronts has sparked many debates. The Wall Street Journal raises this hypothesis based on classified documents and intelligence information, as official figures are also kept secret to protect the morale of civilians in Moscow and Kyiv.
According to the American newspaper, determining the exact number of deaths and injuries in this conflict is difficult because Russia and Ukraine refrain from releasing their official estimates and sometimes publish unreliable figures. Pentagon documents disclosed by The Economist in July indicate that Russian casualties could be even higher. In the highest estimate, 72,800 soldiers have been killed, wounded, or taken prisoner. Moscow has not disclosed its own casualty figures in this war, and according to the latest statistics presented in September 2022, 5,937 soldiers had been killed.
According to Ukraine’s confidential estimate, casualties in the conflict with Russia since early this year show 80,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, The Wall Street Journal reports. It reminds that President Zelensky had presented a much lower number of military casualties in February without disclosing the number of injured soldiers. These casualties highlight the long-term destructive impact for two countries that were already struggling with population decline before the war, mainly due to economic turmoil and social upheaval.
Expectations for November 5th.
We all desire a peace that is not a frozen conflict. Zelensky stated today in a press conference with phone-in line in Kyiv that peace must be trustworthy. However, currently, there seems to be no truly prominent diplomatic prospect. It is unlikely that the outlook will change before November 5th, the date of the US presidential election. The White House’s support for Kyiv is at risk, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s lack of response to the debate a few days ago and the peace proposal put forward by Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence, who to a large extent follows Kremlin’s wishes.
The likelihood of a power balance shift is one of the reasons for the escalation of field conflicts in recent weeks. Consequently, there is increasing pressure to strive for negotiations in a more favorable situation that many now see as inevitable.
After the peace talks in Switzerland, international expectations regarding the exit plan in Ukraine have increased. Various factors have revived hopes. The second summit announced by Zelensky, which should at least include Russia according to the intentions of the Ukrainian president, Moscow, which periodically says it is ready for dialogue, faces a more open-minded Ukrainian public according to polls.
However, hope for achieving a ceasefire is weak, let alone reaching a lasting peace agreement. The first peace talks emphasized Ukraine’s ability to gather a large number of diplomats and political leaders over time, but did not significantly help advance the negotiations. Even highlighting the ambiguous position of many countries in the Global South like India or Brazil. Zelensky has openly published a message of peace and diplomacy that Western public opinion should hear, but the reality is that neither side is ready to meet the necessary conditions to sit down at the negotiation table and reach even painful compromises.
