Europe on the Ukrainian Front
Von der Leyen in Kyiv Supports Europe for Ukraine
Europe on the Ukrainian Front: After the European Parliament vote, Von der Leyen goes to Kyiv. Zelensky: We want peace, not a frozen war. Ursula von der Leyen arrived in Kyiv on the morning of September 20th for her first visit to Ukraine since the start of her second term as President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen met with President Volodymyr Zelensky a day after the European Parliament voted to authorize the use of Western weapons in Russia and to prepare for winter, discussing Europe’s support for Ukraine. In fact, about half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed by Russian bombing, and rolling blackouts leave entire regions of the country in darkness for hours.
The President said that all of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have lost power and explained that the season for using heating appliances begins in two weeks, and certainly, the aim of the relentless attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure is to inflict maximum damage. He added that Europe will assist Ukraine in its brave efforts to overcome this issue.
Divisive Resolution
This visit comes a day after the European Parliament passed a non-binding resolution urging member states to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to target legitimate military objectives on Russian soil. By doing so, the Strasbourg assembly asks the 27 members to overcome silence and restrictions and allow Ukraine to fully exercise its right to self-defense.
The resolution was passed with 425 votes in favor, 131 against, and 63 abstentions. The issue of using Western weapons on Russian soil has long been the main topic of debate between governments in favor, convinced that authorizing attacks on Russian soil is the only way to force Moscow to negotiate, and opponents, who are always concerned that such a decision could backfire and lead to an escalation of the conflict.
The approved text also calls for strengthening sanctions against Iran and North Korea due to their military support for Moscow and urges the European Union and the international community to establish a legal regime to seize Russia’s frozen assets as part of efforts to compensate for the extensive damages inflicted on Ukraine.
One Million Victims
Meanwhile, the total number of victims has reached one million since the beginning of the conflict on both fronts, sparking much debate. This hypothesis is presented by The Wall Street Journal based on confidential documents and intelligence information, noting that official figures are also kept secret to protect the morale of civilians in Moscow and Kyiv.
According to the American newspaper, determining the exact number of dead and wounded in this conflict is difficult because Russia and Ukraine refuse to release official estimates and sometimes publish unreliable figures. Leaked Pentagon documents reported by The Economist in July indicate that Russian casualties could be even higher, with the highest estimate being 728,000 soldiers killed, wounded, or captured. Moscow has not announced the number of its casualties in this war, and according to the latest statistics provided in September 2022, 5,937 soldiers had been killed.
In contrast, Ukraine’s confidential estimate from early this year shows Kyiv’s losses at 80,000 soldiers killed and 400,000 wounded, writes The Wall Street Journal, recalling that President Zelensky had provided a much lower number of military casualties in February without disclosing the number of injured soldiers. According to the newspaper, these losses highlight the long-term destructive impact on the two countries, which were already struggling with population decline before the war, mainly due to economic turmoil and social changes.
Waiting for November 5th
We are all interested in a peace that is not a frozen war, Zelensky said today at a press conference with Von der Leyen in Kyiv. Peace must be reliable. However, at the moment, there seems to be no truly outstanding diplomatic horizon, a prospect unlikely to change before November 5th, the date of the presidential elections in the United States. Regarding Ukraine, the White House’s support for Kyiv is at risk, which is partly confirmed by Donald Trump’s non-response to the debate a few days ago and the peace plan presented by J.D. Vance, the Republican vice-presidential candidate, which largely follows the Kremlin’s demands.
The potential shift in the balance of power is one of the reasons for the escalation of field conflicts in recent weeks. Similarly, Kyiv is increasing pressure to try to reach a negotiation in a more advantageous position, which many now see as inevitable.
Following the peace summit in Switzerland, international expectations regarding the exit plan in Ukraine have risen. Several factors have revived hopes: the second summit announced by Zelensky, which should, at least in the Ukrainian president’s intention, include Russia as well. Moscow periodically states that it is ready for dialogue. Ukrainian public opinion, according to polls, is more open to negotiation.
However, the hope of achieving a ceasefire is weak, let alone a peace agreement that would be sustainable over time. The first peace summit highlighted Ukraine’s ability to bring together a large number of diplomats and political leaders but did little to advance negotiations, even highlighting the often ambiguous stance of many countries in the Global South, such as India or Brazil. Zelensky has publicly spread the message of peace and diplomacy that Western public opinion should hear, but the reality is that neither side has reached the conditions necessary to sit at the negotiation table, ready to make even painful compromises.