The Stability Front reconciles with Qalibaf’s leadership
The internal conflict among the conservatives over the leadership of the coalition council is not yielding to the leadership of Qalibaf. They know that if they concede Qalibaf’s leadership, they will destroy his potential presence in the 2025 presidential elections and he will have to retreat for several years to restore his political standing and regain his lost prestige.
According to Iran Gate News Agency, the situation in the conservative camp is like a front that has returned from a bloody battle, yet no one has gone to an external war. This situation is the result of a power struggle that is ongoing within themselves, a power struggle that is visible these days on social media with revelations against each other.
An election without a rival
In several election cycles, the conservatives have had peace of mind due to the lack of a rival. In other words, they had no competitor to contend with. Thus, their competitions have been within their own camp. In the twelfth parliamentary elections, similar to the previous parliamentary elections, the same situation persists. Thanks to widespread disqualifications on the opposing side, the conservatives are left with 290 seats in the Islamic Consultative Assembly and a battle for the largest share of those seats among themselves.
The battle for Tehran’s leadership
One of the power struggles ongoing in this camp revolves around the leadership of the most important electoral district, Tehran. This battle intensifies when, on one hand, the conservatives strive to present a unified list, but encounter an obstacle named Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. The obstacle is not due to his presence but due to the coalition council’s insistence on Qalibaf’s leadership.
In Tehran, which holds significant importance, many conservative groups are active or have been established. They are trying to gain the largest share from the 30-member Tehran list. The coalition council, the Stability Front, the Sharian, and smaller groups that have formed the Umana organization, and the Unity Council are the four main conservative streams in Tehran.
Among these, the coalition council has the largest tent in the conservative camp and holds a high level of determinacy. The Stability Front seems to push unity with the coalition council away with one hand while drawing it closer with the other. They, who have a sharp angle with Qalibaf, are making significant efforts to pull Qalibaf down from Tehran’s leadership and consequently from the presidency of the parliament.
The Sharian and smaller groups that have formed the Umana organization are also trying to raise their political weight to issue a separate list. They are mostly staunch opponents of Qalibaf. The Unity Council does not seem to be drawn towards a coalition with the coalition council’s steering.
Qalibaf as an obstacle to conservative unity
However, among some groups willing to ally with the elder conservative brother, Qalibaf’s leadership is seen as an obstacle to this coalition, and they oppose it. On the other hand, factions like the Masaf group affiliated with Ali Akbar Raefipour have drawn their swords against Qalibaf and are attacking him on social media. They may be engaged in a proxy war against Qalibaf on behalf of the Stability Front and Sharian’s ally, the government.
Nonetheless, Haddad Adel, the head of the Coalition of Revolutionary Forces Council, has repeatedly emphasized Qalibaf’s leadership in Tehran. Qalibaf, who was also the lead candidate in the previous election and has been the parliament’s speaker for four years, stepping down from Tehran’s leadership would be considered a heavy political defeat. In social networks, part of the conservative base that is not aligned with figures like Raefipour, the Stability Front, and Sharian, but is devoted to the coalition council, declare they will vote for the council’s list except for Qalibaf. If such a plan becomes widespread, Qalibaf’s position might become significantly shaky.
In the words of Mostafa Mirsalim, a Tehran representative in parliament, signs of such an approach can be seen. Giving a list is an imposition on the people, and with the current law, we have no choice but to submit to its weaknesses and flaws. If elections were held with single-representative districts, the issue of the leading list, which creates a kind of disruption in people’s judgment, would also be eliminated.
These words become more meaningful when reviewing Mirsalim’s past confrontations with Qalibaf. Early in the parliament’s term, he claimed that a commission head was paid tens of billions in bribes to cancel an investigation into the municipality. Although he did not name Qalibaf, it was clear that Qalibaf was the target. Over these four years, he has not had few disputes with Qalibaf.
Qalibaf’s situation has become so unstable that the Popular Front of a Strong Iran and the Islamic Society of Managers are also questioning Qalibaf’s leadership, and in these two unknown organizations, Qalibaf’s leadership is not yet confirmed.
Mohammad Nazemi Ardakani, the secretary-general of these two conservative political organizations, stated in an interview that there are individuals in the central council who have differing opinions regarding Mr. Qalibaf’s management of the parliament. However, if the coalition council concludes that he should be the lead candidate, we will make a decision in our central council.
He also provided an analysis of the current factions in the elections. The Sharian Front has a serious stance against Mr. Qalibaf’s leadership, but if the Stability Front and the Unity Council enter into a coalition and their views are met and their lead candidate is Mr. Qalibaf, we will also reach the conclusion to accept this lead candidate.
He is not entirely wrong. The 2019 elections for the eleventh parliament showed that at the last minute, the Stability Front and the coalition council reached an agreement. On one hand, Qalibaf remained at the top of the Tehran list, and on the other hand, several Stability Front candidates, who would not have been elected if they were on a separate list, entered the parliament this way.
At that time, Haddad Adel mediated between Mahsuli and Qalibaf and managed to seal the deal. But this time, Haddad Adel has directly entered the fray and, after inviting the Stability Front to peace and harmony and not receiving a signal corresponding to his invitation, he reprimanded them and effectively ostracized them.
The Stability Front yields to Qalibaf’s leadership
On the other hand, unconfirmed reports suggest that the coalition council has agreed with the Stability Front for the inclusion of 7 members from this hardline organization in the council’s list, but this has not been confirmed yet. Furthermore, it is heard that Haddad and Qalibaf have each set conditions for reconciliation with the Stability Front, stipulating that a current representative from the Stability Front, who recently had legal disputes with Qalibaf, and a former hardline representative who has long been active against Qalibaf, should not be included in the joint list, and it seems the Stability Front has accepted.
The Stability Front, since it is solely focused on its goal and seeks to achieve it by any means, is likely to officially announce a coalition with the council, even with Qalibaf’s leadership. This is while the Umana faction appears to be the most stubborn group against Qalibaf.
Nevertheless, the coalition council is by no means backing down from Qalibaf’s leadership. They know that if they back down from Qalibaf’s leadership, they will destroy his potential presence in the 2025 presidential elections and he will have to retreat for several years to restore his political standing and regain his lost prestige.
The situation around the leadership is so tense that it seems Mohammad Reza Bahonar has preferred to return to his province, Kerman, and keep himself away from this conflict. However, in Tehran, there will be a fierce competition between Qalibaf and Morteza Aghatehrani for the leadership in the event of a joint list between the coalition council and the Stability Front.
Who is the winner of the conservatives’ competition with conservatives?
This spectrum, as they likely have access to numerous polls, can adjust their actions according to the polls until the last day. It is essential to mention that in politics, minutes and behind-the-scenes deals can turn the entire scene around and create significant changes at the last moments.
In any case, the twelfth parliamentary elections are so important for the conservatives that they have drawn swords against each other and want to send the rival to the abyss by any means to claim the main road for themselves. This competition has been made possible for them due to the absence of strong and seasoned rivals from the reformist spectrum, allowing them to have a power struggle among themselves, a battle for victory in the conservatives’ competition with conservatives.