Finalizing the Vienna agreement is crucial
Talks between European and American officials continue following the announcement of the U.S. response to Iran’s view on the Vienna agreement text. Iranian officials have also made various statements regarding the U.S. response and their interpretations and opinions of it.
Some Iranian officials insist on a specific stance regarding the International Atomic Energy Agency’s oversight and the open cases related to identified issues at Iranian power plants, along with expressing dissatisfaction with the Agency and the U.S.’s insistence on continuing to review these cases. However, Iranians have not officially portrayed this request as a barrier or a deal-breaker.
Yesterday, we discussed in detail the reality of the JCPOA and the importance of finalizing the current agreement on the table. This agreement and the complete participation of Iran in the JCPOA interactions process are becoming more crucial from an international perspective day by day.
Russian occupation and the global economic crisis
Iran’s cooperation with Putin in the six months following his invasion of Ukraine has expanded in various areas, notably military cooperation, especially the production of Iranian drones for the Russian army. However, the significant reality in the equations of Putin’s occupation crisis is the international economic and livelihood crises resulting from it on one hand, and Russia’s economic-political battle with the U.S. and its allies on the other.
The most important reality that seems necessary to understand in Iran is the depth of livelihood and economic crises in developed and less developed countries and the strategies that various countries are now pursuing to combat these crises. The serious efforts of powerful European countries and the U.S. to converge and unite in confronting these crises have provided and will provide grounds for joint cooperation among different countries.
Iran, being under sanctions and hostile, is deprived of many of these cooperation grounds. The serious increase in grain and oil prices in recent months is solvable through programs that have depicted the prospect of joint cooperation among many countries, and Iran should partake in these cooperations.
A key reality of Iran’s economy is the importance of energy exports. Although Iran’s oil sales have long been entrusted to brokers and so-called private sector sellers under the guise of sanctions and beyond the formal rules of a resilient economy, these so-called private sector brokers who have gained access to oil belonging to the people are now caught up in the serious presence of Russia with cheap oil in the world.
China and India have significantly increased their purchase of Russian oil without any reservations, and this serious growth in cheap oil sales has compensated for the Russians. Iran’s official and non-broker presence in the oil market and short- and medium-term contracts with East Asian and European countries is an opportunity that is regrettably lost.
This is while official statistics on Chinese oil purchases indicate a complete halt in buying Iranian oil. Iran is also losing the chance to sign natural gas sales contracts with Europe, and Europeans will get gas from Azerbaijan, Israel, and Algeria. It remains to be seen whether Iran’s regime will continue to react to Ulyanov’s ups and downs in Vienna and Putin’s special policy to exploit our country’s passivity and isolation, or whether it will consider national interests and the importance of ongoing relations with Russia in its policy, considering the current realities of international economy and politics.
Israel’s elections and the critical nature of the agreement
It is the elections in Israel, not the intentions and desires of Israeli officials, that are now influencing their approach to the JCPOA. The most important figure in these interactions is Netanyahu, whose seemingly hardline and indeed tension-inducing and destructive approach aligns closely with the American Republicans’ policy. Those who are aware of the real function of the JCPOA and its success in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons have presented and continue to present various issues as excuses to oppose the agreement.
Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and other numerous forces in Israel are currently more than anything seeking to establish their image and identity in the Israeli political market as independent, capable, and influential forces and want to overcome Netanyahu. Since the announcement of the Knesset’s dissolution and the elections scheduled for November this year, key political events in the occupied territories have shown more than anything the confrontation of these forces with Netanyahu.
Lapid, as the current Prime Minister, is largely supported by the American Democrats, and there is no doubt that his victory in the elections is extremely crucial for the Biden administration.
The important reality in this context that needs to be understood is the importance of the JCPOA for Israeli officials. In the past two years, we have witnessed multiple confirmations of the JCPOA’s importance and effectiveness by Israeli military and security officials. The non-peaceful control of Iran’s nuclear program and the military collaborations of the Israeli regime’s army and the U.S. are inherently appealing to many Israelis.
Nevertheless, the costly and dangerous nature of any security and military operation is a reality that Israelis are aware of. What we have seen in recent weeks, especially this week, as the Israeli government’s opposition to the JCPOA is a serious effort by the current government’s political forces to demonstrate their influence in the JCPOA interactions process.
Lapid and Gantz, as two important electoral figures competing with Netanyahu, are trying to show the Israeli government citizens that Netanyahu’s era is over. Lapid, who has had tough and confrontational encounters with Netanyahu and is increasingly clashing with him, needs this show of strength.
Benny Gantz also quickly, after Lapid’s national security advisor traveled to Washington, rolled up his sleeves and headed to the U.S. to show himself. Lapid and Gantz’s significant media presence and their news programs during the Israeli army’s attacks on Gaza were a depiction of these two’s electoral programs, and the Israeli JCPOA interactions also fall within this circle.
The importance of fully reviving the JCPOA interactions in the current Middle East conditions, considering the support of the Arab Gulf countries for resuming the agreement, is more than ever. The Israeli elections and the confrontation between Netanyahu and Lapid and Gantz are very crucial. The Biden administration will also go a long way to help Lapid and the forces opposing Netanyahu, and naturally, Lapid and Gantz’s need for a show of strength significantly increases the likelihood of creating risks in Middle Eastern security interactions and the confrontation between Iran and Israel in the absence of a signed agreement.
The seemingly harsh U.S. response to Iran and giving Lapid space to play a public role indicates the importance of the Israeli elections for the Biden administration. If Iran in the coming days turns the JCPOA into a complete process by accepting the agreement and its participation, it will prevent unnecessary entanglement in Israeli electoral games, and there is no doubt that the Arab Gulf countries also desire the same action.