Finalizing the Vienna agreement is crucial
Talks between European and American officials continue following the announcement of America’s response to Iran’s views on the Vienna agreement text. Iranian officials have also expressed various opinions regarding America’s response and their own interpretations and views on this response.
Some Iranian officials insist on a specific stance regarding the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the open cases related to identified issues in Iran’s facilities, along with expressing dissatisfaction with the insistence of the Agency and the US on continuing to review these cases. However, Iranians have not portrayed this official request as an obstacle or a deal-breaker for the agreement.
Yesterday, we discussed in detail the reality of the JCPOA and the importance of finalizing the existing agreement on the table. This agreement and the complete involvement of Iran in the JCPOA interactions are becoming increasingly crucial from an international perspective.
Russian occupation and the global economic crisis
Iran’s cooperation with Putin has expanded in various fields during the six months following his invasion of Ukraine, with the notable and significant part being military cooperation, especially the production of Iranian drones for the Russian army. However, the important reality in the equations of Putin’s occupation crisis is the international economic and livelihood crises resulting from it on one hand, and Russia’s economic-political battle with the US and its allies on the other hand.
The most important reality that needs to be understood in Iran is the depth of the economic and livelihood crises in developed and less developed countries and the solutions that different countries are now pursuing to address these crises. The serious efforts of powerful European countries and the US to converge and unite in confronting these crises have provided and will provide grounds for joint cooperation among various countries.
Iran, being under sanctions and hostile, is deprived of many of these cooperation opportunities. The serious increase in grain and oil prices in recent months can be resolved based on plans that depict the prospect of joint cooperation among many countries, and Iran should be part of these collaborations.
The key reality of Iran’s economy is the importance of energy exports. Although the sale of Iranian oil has long been entrusted to brokers and so-called private sector sellers based on laws and beyond that, the official ruling of a resistance economy, these so-called private sector brokers, who have gained access to oil belonging to the people under the pretext of sanctions, are now facing serious competition from Russia with cheap oil in the world.
China and India have significantly increased their purchase of Russian oil without any hesitation, and this significant growth in sales has compensated for its low price for the Russians. Iran’s official and non-broker presence in the oil market and short- and medium-term contracts with East Asian and European countries is an opportunity that has been regrettably lost.
In this situation, official statistics indicate that China’s oil purchases from Iran have dropped to zero. Iran is also losing the chance to sign natural gas sales contracts with Europe, and Europeans will source gas from Azerbaijan, Israel, and Algeria. It remains to be seen whether Iran’s regime will continue to oscillate with Ulyanov’s ups and downs in Vienna and Putin’s special policy to exploit our country’s passivity and isolation, or whether it will consider the current realities of international economics and politics in its policy, taking into account national interests and the importance of ongoing relations with Russia.
Israel’s elections and the vital nature of the agreement
It is Israel’s elections, not the desires and wishes of Israeli officials, that are now influencing their approach to the JCPOA. The most prominent figure in these interactions is Netanyahu, whose seemingly strict and in reality tense and destructive approach aligns closely with the policies of American Republicans. Those who are aware of the real function of the JCPOA and its success in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons have raised and continue to raise various issues as excuses to oppose the agreement.
There are multiple forces in Israel, including Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, who in the current electoral interactions are primarily seeking to establish their image and identity in the Israeli political market as independent, capable, and influential forces, and they aim to overcome Netanyahu. Since the announcement of the dissolution of the Knesset and the holding of elections in November this year, key political events in the occupied territories have primarily indicated the confrontation of these forces with Netanyahu.
Lapid, as the current Prime Minister, is largely supported by American Democrats, and there is no doubt that his victory in the elections is extremely crucial for the Biden administration.
The important reality in this context that needs to be understood is the importance of the JCPOA for Israeli officials. In the past two years, we have witnessed multiple confirmations of the JCPOA’s importance and effectiveness by Israeli military and security officials. The non-peaceful control of Iran’s nuclear program and the military partnerships of the Israeli regime’s army and the US are inherently attractive to many Israelis.
However, the cost and dangerous nature of any security and military operation is a reality that Israelis themselves are aware of. What we have witnessed in recent weeks and especially this week as the Israeli government’s opposition to the JCPOA is the serious effort of the current government’s political forces to demonstrate their influence in the JCPOA interactions.
Lapid and Gantz, as two important electoral figures opposing Netanyahu, are trying to show the citizens loyal to the Israeli government that Netanyahu’s era is over. Lapid, who has had tough confrontations and serious clashes with Netanyahu, and who is increasingly clashing with him, needs this show of power.
Benny Gantz also quickly, after Lapid’s national security advisor’s trip to Washington, rolled up his sleeves and headed to the US to show himself. The serious media presence of Lapid and Gantz and their news programs during the Israeli army’s attacks on Gaza were a depiction of these two’s electoral programs, and Israeli JCPOA interactions also fall within this circle.
The importance of fully reviving JCPOA interactions in the current Middle East context, given the support of the Gulf Arab countries for resuming the agreement, is greater than before. The Israeli elections and the confrontation between Netanyahu and Lapid and Gantz are very crucial. The Biden administration will also go a long way to help Lapid and the forces opposing Netanyahu, and naturally, Lapid and Gantz’s need for power display increases the likelihood of risks in Middle Eastern security interactions and the confrontation between Iran and Israel in the absence of a signed agreement.
The seemingly harsh response of the US to Iran and giving Lapid space to play a public role indicates the importance of the Israeli elections for the Biden administration. If Iran turns the JCPOA into a complete process by accepting the agreement and its presence in the coming days, it will prevent getting unnecessarily caught in Israel’s electoral games, and there is no doubt that the Gulf Arab countries also desire this action.