Forgotten Crises
Until just a few years ago, forgotten crises were essentially climate shocks like floods, droughts, and storms, which were considered possible but unlikely events in most parts of the world. Depending on the geographical location of countries and regions, it was possible for a generation to witness their occurrence once or twice.
However, for almost two decades, the use of the term ‘unlikely’ to describe these phenomena has gradually lost its meaning. In the new rule we live in today, climate shocks with great intensity and impact, due to human presence in vast areas of the planet, have become very likely phenomena, if not common.
Recently, we witnessed an example of this in Pakistan and India, where both countries were affected by an unusual heatwave for several months, and shortly after this heat, we saw sudden floods that submerged a third of Pakistan’s land.
Additionally, in African countries like Sudan and South Sudan, deadly floods with varying intensity affect the lives of thousands of people each year, and in Central America, which increasingly falls victim to severe storms.
But perhaps no region can exemplify this new rule as well as the Horn of Africa. After four consecutive years of drought, expected to be followed by a fifth, it is fair to ask whether this has not become a rule today, and whether witnessing a rainy season similar to those once common and considered normal has become an exception.
The answers to such questions are not only vital for the food security of populations residing in these areas but also for organizations like the World Food Programme (WFP), which deal with food security worldwide.
Five consecutive years of drought have consequences that go far beyond severe food shortages. In fact, its impact is on investment in the sustainability models of local communities and economies that have existed for centuries and today find themselves forced to cope with a rapidly changing territory and climate. This situation has very tangible consequences for local institutions, especially in areas with very high unemployment rates, where agriculture has always been the occupation of the vast majority of the population.
Similarly, for the rulers of countries often considered to have very fragile macroeconomic frameworks, who have for years been forced to find additional resources for food imports to compensate for the drastically reduced domestic production, thereby strengthening their dependence on foreign countries. Thus, in times like today, when faced with skyrocketing international prices, these countries’ economies become extremely vulnerable.
The New Rule in Somalia
Although in most states of the Horn of Africa, recent years’ climate shocks have exacerbated local socio-economic and political fragilities, perhaps none have been as deeply affected by the profound impact such shocks can have on lands as Somalia—a country already struggling with high levels of poverty and prolonged conflicts.
One of Africa’s poorest states, where 61% of the population lives on less than $1.90 a day, Somalia has been embroiled in political instability since its independence. Since the 1990s, it has been the scene of numerous internal conflicts at both local and national levels. Additionally, since the mid-2000s, the country has faced an insurgency by the fundamentalist Islamic group Al-Shabaab, which has intermittently managed to expand its control over large areas of the country.
Such a picture, characterized by severe poverty and high institutional fragility, has made the country significantly vulnerable, to the extent that it is unable to devise effective measures to cope with potential emergencies. Consequently, it has become much more fragile and vulnerable to the impacts of climate shocks in recent years.
This became starkly evident during the famine of 2011 and 2012 when, as a result of two consecutive years of drought, over 250,000 people lost their lives. On that occasion, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, commonly known as IPC, which is a multilateral initiative launched in 2004 by some UN agencies to effectively collect and classify information on food security in crisis areas, only accessed sufficient data to sound the international alarm when it was estimated that half of all famine victims had already died. This demonstrated the crisis had progressed. However, a broad and sudden international intervention subsequently managed to halt the crisis and prevent millions more victims.
The Year 2022 and the Risk of Famine
Officially declaring a famine in a country requires the widespread activation of economic resources and United Nations institutions and the international community. The criteria for officially declaring a famine include the following:
1. When at least 20% of households in a specific area are experiencing severe food shortages, meaning the inability to provide one meal for a full day and more than one day a week.
2. When at least 30% of young children are suffering from acute malnutrition, and the mortality rate due to hunger or hunger-related diseases is at least 2 per 10,000.
For this reason, officially declaring a famine is not an easy decision and can only be made after a careful review of existing data and information by a special commission of experts known as the Famine Review Committee (FRC), to prevent the process of gathering and processing information for international mobilization from leading to another deep crisis.
As happened in 2011, over the past decade, the IPC has developed an early warning system capable of using current data with a reasonable degree of probability to estimate the possibility of a famine occurring in the coming months. This is to allow the United Nations and the international community to organize and prepare necessary actions in a timely manner.
This is exactly what is being implemented in Somalia today. After the 2011 disaster, significant resources have been made available to this country by the international community for humanitarian support to local people to cope with the unprecedented situation it currently faces—four consecutive years of drought, with evidence unfortunately indicating that the addition of another year to this period seems inevitable.
The second annual rainy season, which in this country corresponds with October and November, once again appears to be very limited and negligible in terms of rainfall. The humanitarian situation is currently deteriorating dramatically, with the regions of Gedo, Bay, Bakool, and Buurhakaba in the Somali Gulf being at greater risk.
Meanwhile, despite the fact that the country’s general elections were conducted with relative calm last May, government institutions are extremely weak and unable to cope with the impending emergency. Ultimately, the extremist group Al-Shabaab now controls vast areas in the Gulf region, making access for humanitarian organizations to these areas very difficult.
Famine Budget Shortage and Financial Resources
What truly makes the situation challenging and dramatic, according to IPC analysis, is the significant reduction in available funding for humanitarian organizations active in this country. The World Food Programme in Somalia has not had enough resources for some time to meet the needs of all those in need. According to the latest CPI forecast for the period from October to December 2022, approximately 6.7 million people in the country will suffer from food insecurity, of whom around 301,000 will be at risk of real famine.
In response to these figures, the World Food Programme doubled its operational capacity in August compared to April and managed to reduce the number of people at risk of a food crisis to 4.4 million, thereby providing necessary assistance to those in more dire conditions. However, due to insufficient funding, this effort cannot continue beyond October.
The gap between existing needs and financial resources is not due to a decline in international community financial aid. On the contrary, in recent years, international solidarity in response to food crises, including the Somali crisis, has increased. Unfortunately, the reason for this gap is that the number of people needing humanitarian assistance is increasing at a very high rate.
The pandemic, increasing climate shocks, and rising prices of agricultural and energy raw materials have, in fact, led to a sudden increase in food insecurity worldwide, with international solidarity still striving to address it.
In 2022, the World Food Programme has received $947 billion from international donors so far. However, this amount is not sufficient to cover the needs of hundreds of millions of people estimated to be experiencing food insecurity worldwide.
Somalia reproduces this dynamic on a smaller scale. Although international solidarity with this country has significantly increased since the 2011 famine, the doubling of the World Food Programme’s operations in this country has become necessary due to the intensifying climate conditions this year, leading to a rapid depletion of available financial resources.
According to existing estimates, the World Food Programme needs to receive an additional $367 million from the international community to extend its activities under the current regime until February 2023, with the hope of witnessing a slight improvement in the country’s situation during this period.
The simultaneous occurrence of several factors worsening the situation in Somalia, the significant increase in the number of people at risk due to drought, political instability, and the inadequacy of available financial resources for humanitarian organizations in relation to the country’s needs prompted the IPC to officially warn of the risk of famine outbreak from this autumn.
It also announced that there is a possibility of worsening conditions in the first half of 2023. According to this organization’s warning, the number of people at risk is expected to be more than three times the victims in 2011.
The United Nations immediately launched a fundraising campaign to at least minimize and limit the impact of financial resource shortages as much as possible. Despite some initial positive results, unfortunately, the gap between available financial resources and the required amount remains significant, and time is running out.
Other related articles have been published on Iran Gate.
Forecasting Water Wars in Iran
- Weather and Environment in Times of War