France in a stalemate
Stopping the far-right party
France in a stalemate as the New People’s Front left-wing coalition unexpectedly leads in the French parliamentary elections
Macron’s group came in second, surpassing Le Pen and Bardella’s National Rally party. However, none of these three political blocs could achieve an absolute majority, contrary to predictions that anticipated a far-right victory.
The left-wing parties’ coalition chose the name People’s Front, inspired by a coalition that prevented the far-right’s victory in French elections about a hundred years ago.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, one of the leftist leaders, stated in his first speech after the elections, referring to the far-right party, that the French people rejected the worst solution.
French voters voted and delivered a fragmented National Assembly without a clear majority. Based on initial results, one thing is certain: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s National Rally not only failed to achieve an absolute majority but currently ranks third, while the united left in the New People’s Front (NFP) secured a relative majority of seats.
For France, these events usher in a period of uncertainty unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic, reminiscent of the chaos of the Fourth Republic from 1946-1958, when 24 governments succeeded each other in just 13 years.
What is certain is that President Macron cannot dissolve the parliament in the next twelve months and thus must seek a solution within this National Assembly.
Therefore, to find a majority that excludes the National Rally, a very narrow and uphill path must be taken.
This is because, to be large, this majority must include all or almost all other parties, but also because the New People’s Front focused its campaign equally on the failures of Macronism and the threat posed by the rise of the far-right.
What happens now?
Once the counting is complete, power is shifting from the Élysée to the parliament, which, as in other European democracies, must prepare the ground for forming a majority and an executive capable of governing.
On the morning of April 8, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal offered his resignation and remains in his position only to handle current affairs.
Meanwhile, the speeches of the leaders of the coalition forces against the far-right reveal different positions. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the France Insoumise party, according to the initial projects of the People’s Front formation, says no to a government coalition with Macron’s centrists, supported by Olivier Faure from the Socialists, while Raphaël Glucksmann from the Place Publique movement called for mature behavior to find a way out of the current situation.
The issue is not just this, but who is willing to become Prime Minister and place themselves at the head of such a heterogeneous and composite coalition.
Currently, the Élysée is trying to buy time and waits for the commotion to become clear, studying the hypothesis that the divisions, already visible before the vote, may push the New People’s Front towards a split.
In that case, it examines the path for a grand left-right coalition that embraces the Socialists, centrists, and runaway Republicans.
Valérie Gas from Radio France Internationale analyzes that on paper this option might be possible, but in political reality, building it will be difficult.
Macron the ultimate winner of the gamble
In the end, the gamble paid off. Emmanuel Macron won his bet by blocking the path to the National Assembly for Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, even though his camp was damaged and the issue of governance remains unresolved.
The second round of the French parliamentary elections brought a historic victory for the New People’s Front (NFP), a coalition of left-wing parties, which with 182 seats is in first place, followed by Ensemble, meaning together, a liberal political coalition in France created by Emmanuel Macron with 168 parliamentary representatives in second place, and the far-right with 143, once again facing the Republican barrier.
Although in the past few hours we have begun to question the French government’s ability to govern and maintain balance, the news of the day is still the surprising defeat of the National Rally, made possible by unprecedented voter resistance and participation agreements.
Marine Le Pen noted that two years ago we only had seven members of parliament.
Tonight, we are the first party in France in terms of the number of representatives. It is true, considering that in the last parliament there were 88 and now 143, more than any other party, as the Macronists and People’s Front are coalitions, but it is not enough to govern.
After the announcement of the election results on Sunday, even Europe breathed a sigh of relief. Paris will remain an active champion on the political scene of the Union, while the entry of the National Rally would have created a void that would have been impossible to fill.
Interim government
It is unlikely that any government emerging from potential joint compositions will remain stable for long.
The approval of the budget law in the fall will be the first potential critical moment. France is under pressure after missing targets earlier in the year due to demands to reduce its budget deficit.
Among many issues on which the left-liberal and right coalition will never agree, financial policy is likely at the top of the list.
Meanwhile, Bardella, disappointed by the prospect of gaining a majority in parliament and leading the country, tried to cheer his supporters with the statement that the old world has collapsed and nothing can stop the people who have regained hope.
Marine Le Pen also reiterated this, saying the tide is rising. This time it hasn’t risen high enough, but it continues to grow.
Our victory is only postponed. On the other hand, despite not reaching the goal, the National Rally has seen a sharp increase in the number of its parliamentary representatives. Now we must see how long the Republican barrier can keep them out.
Urban painting canvas
Europe breathes a sigh of relief, but only halfway. Issues affecting France’s stability are also present in some of President Macron’s boldest proposals, from a joint loan for European defense to doubling the community budget to deploying French forces to train Kyiv’s troops.
The European Union is at risk of facing a double paralysis because both France and Germany, traditionally the driving forces of the 27-member bloc, find themselves in a weak position.
While Macron has to settle scores at home, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw his party defeated in the European elections and is struggling to keep the ‘traffic light coalition’—named for the symbolic colors of its parties: red for Social Democrats, yellow for Free Democrats, and green for the Greens—intact.
At the continental level, although far-right parties are still far from taking control, they are on the rise, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the rotating president of the European Union, is trying to strengthen them. On Sunday evening, this news was overshadowed by protests initially sparked by polls and then by voting results, but Bardella announced in his speech that the National Rally party would be part of a new parliamentary group created by the Hungarian Prime Minister, ‘Patriots for Europe,’ which includes the Lega Nord party led by Matteo Salvini and far-right parties from Spain, Portugal, and the Flemish region—referring to a large area of France, Belgium, and southern Netherlands.
Thus, this group could become the third-largest party in the European Parliament after the center-right European People’s Party and the center-left Socialists, surpassing Renew Europe.
Bardella said that ultimately, from tomorrow, our members in the European Parliament will fully play their role in a large group that will impact the balance of power in Europe to avoid being drowned by migrants, punitive environmentalism, and the confiscation of our sovereignty.
In the end, what is called a knight’s move in chess, a gamble that disrupts the opponent’s game, produced a result Emmanuel Macron was hoping for: preventing the far-right from achieving an absolute majority and having the right to govern France.
Considering the country’s division, the significant growth of Marine Le Pen’s party is not much. In fact, the more important issue for France today is the collapse of the political framework that consigns the party system of the Fifth Republic to history and leads to the formation of a National Assembly dominated by two opposing factions, the National Rally and the left-wing Front, with the weakened former presidential majority at its center, unable to play its cards.
In response to those who, in France and abroad, hastily assessed Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament and call early elections as improvised and clumsy, it is worth recalling a few points. In fact, President Macron lost his majority only a few days after being re-elected in 2022, and his government had to navigate between decree laws, votes of confidence, and increasing street hostilities.
The European elections, which indicated the inevitable advance of the far-right, objectively predicted Marine Le Pen as the winner of the Élysée in 2027, placing the president and France in a weak position relative to European partners. Therefore, Macron decided to blow up the bench rather than guarantee the continuity of a legislative assembly subject to political unknowns and the growing anger of the vast majority of the French.
The gamble that gave the left-wing Front the claim to lead the country with an expensive and difficult social program was a gamble because the extent of the democratic and republican transformations that accompanied Sunday’s exciting result was not measurable at all.
The fear of the far-right mobilized French public opinion to the point of setting a record participation rate and producing an unexpected outcome.
This fear forced the combative and fragmented left to unite and sparked a very high sense of responsibility in all parties, especially in Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left, multiplying the will of hundreds of candidates to vote in favor of the best candidate in the second round against the National Rally candidate.
In the end, the far-right remains a powerful negative threat to the country’s stability and cohesion but is no longer in a position to govern.
Certainly, the strategy and goal of the National Rally party for the coming months is to conquer the Élysée, but perhaps for Marine Le Pen, this path is forever blocked. In any case, what is certain is that France faces two complex years ahead, a crisis likely accompanied by unrest and the risk of an economic shock.