From the West’s perspective, what will be the outcome of the people’s protests?
From the West’s perspective, what will be the outcome of the people’s protests? According to Iran Gate, the rightful protests of the Iranian people have entered their third month, with Western media coverage being unprecedentedly extensive. The daily and even hourly monitoring of developments in Iran has become a significant part of the prominent news in these media outlets.
The media coverage and reporting of the Iranian people’s protests, particularly the increased significance of Iranian women in recent developments, have influenced the perspective of European and American politicians and governments regarding their official interactions with Iran.
As we have mentioned in other reports, this shift in official interactions has severely restricted Iran’s diplomatic breathing space. There is no doubt that Iran’s involvement in the aggression against Ukraine and provocative actions in the Persian Gulf have also contributed to this serious and problematic constraint. Meanwhile, a series of new statements and remarks from Western officials have become a reflection of their latest assessments of developments in Iran, the current state of the people’s protests, and the future of the Iranian people and the ruling system.
The people’s protests are unprecedented.
One of the most important pillars in the analyses and statements of American officials is their emphasis on the unprecedented nature of the current protests and their significant difference from previous protest periods. This emphasis can be seen in the statements of the President and Secretary of State of the United States, and even Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor. It is important to note a crucial aspect that has influenced this unique understanding by Western officials.
In recent months, the West has shown a much higher understanding of Iran and what is happening in our country. The high value of Iranian media interaction in official media and social networks, and the much better and indeed different attention of American and European media to developments in Iran, have contributed to a better understanding by American and European officials of the realities in Iran.
The demands of the protesters have been expressed seriously and transparently. The Iranian regime’s ability to hide the realities in Iran is much lower than in previous instances, such as the November protests or what happened in Khuzestan in 2019. Now, American officials, more explicitly and seriously than all their allies, emphasize the importance of this protest period. The unprecedented nature of these protests has elevated this issue above any other topic related to Iran and has even overshadowed the JCPOA and the Vienna agreement.
America and support for the people
The U.S. government, which considers the current people’s protests as unprecedented and unique, has not yet found a precise way to support the people without endangering political activists inside Iran. Naturally, the promise of helping the Iranian people gain better access to internet services and social networks under the current conditions and given the available resources would not amount to much. Apart from this promise, pressure on the Iranian government, smart and modern sanctions against officials, and special restrictions and penalties have been the main strategies of the U.S. and Europe.
With this particular situation, the protracted nature of this process and the lack of a basis for direct and serious help might only turn America into a mere moral supporter and encourager. Therefore, subtle developments can be seen in some of the American international policy-making arms, indicating their efforts to achieve real support for the people. How much such efforts will come to fruition needs to be seen in the near future.
Recent statements by American officials indicate that at least as a first step, creating a serious diplomatic constraint for Iran and cutting off direct negotiations is a strategy they are pursuing, and its impact is becoming evident.
The Iranian regime is not on the verge of collapse.
Avril Haines, the Director of National Security in the U.S., in her latest statements, once again supported the Iranian people’s protests and at the same time stated that the Iranian regime is not on the verge of definitive collapse due to these protests. According to U.S. and Israeli assessments, the Iranian regime’s situation is more stable than to create the perception among Western public opinion that the regime is weakened or on the verge of collapse.
Naturally, given the Biden administration’s policy of non-intervention in Iranian politics and the absence of any view towards regime change in their policy, they speak much more conservatively about this issue compared to their Israeli counterparts. General Amit Saar, one of the prominent officials of Israel’s military intelligence, has emphasized that the Iranian regime is too powerful to be overthrown by these protests. He believes that Iran’s control, surveillance, and security structures are so robust that they can easily handle the protests.
In this context, other articles have also been published on Iran Gate.
- Where is the future of the protests heading? Will Iran become like Venezuela?
- People’s protests and the increased understanding of Iranians by the West