Germany Awaits Coalition
Germany Awaits Coalition
Germany the Next Day
Friedrich Merz’s conservatives win the elections and seek a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) secures one-fifth of the popular vote, becoming Germany’s second-largest party.
My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe more quickly so that we can truly achieve independence from the United States step by step, stated Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU), making it clear that Europe has entered a new era without waiting for the final election results.
During an interview broadcast on German television on Sunday night, as vote counting confirmed his party’s victory, the future chancellor candidate equated America under Donald Trump’s leadership with Russia and explicitly criticized U.S. interventions in the election campaign, describing them as similar to the significant, evident, and ultimately insulting interventions we’ve seen from Moscow.
Merz has indicated that the commitment to the security of the ancient continent is so urgent that it is uncertain whether the leaders of the Atlantic alliance will still be discussing NATO in its current form at the June summit or whether we will have to rapidly establish an independent European defense capability.
I never thought I would have to say something like this on television, but after Donald Trump’s statements last week, it is clear that Americans, at least those in this administration, are largely indifferent to Europe’s fate, stated the conservative leader, who now has to lead negotiations to form a government that restores stability in Germany during a time of international tension and reassures the public on migration and economic issues.
Alternative for Germany Becomes Germany’s Second Largest Party
In the most decisive election in Germany’s history since reunification, the results confirm the predictions of previous days. With 28% of the vote, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the center-right party led by Friedrich Merz, which has formed a coalition with its Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CSU), wins, but not decisively enough to govern alone.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right Eurosceptic organization led by Alice Weidel, doubled its vote share to 20%, achieving its best result ever and becoming Germany’s second-largest political force.
In contrast, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, fell to 16%, achieving its worst result since the end of World War II.
The Greens lose votes but not significantly, reaching 11%, while Die Linke, the radical left party, remains the surprise of this election, securing over 8% of the vote – an unexpected and higher-than-forecast result that many attribute to the new leadership of Heidi Reichinck.
Die Linke also defeated the BSW party, founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, in these contests, preventing it from crossing the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was the source of the crisis leading to Scholz’s government’s downfall, was also punished by voters, securing just over 4% of the vote and thus unable to elect parliamentary representatives.
Towards a Grand Coalition
Traditional parties performed worse than expected. The Christian Social Union (CSU) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU) conservatives achieved their second-worst result in history, only four points above their worst result in 2021, while the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) decline, unprecedented in 76 years, indicates widespread voter dissatisfaction with the previous three-party coalition’s policies.
The earthquake in the FDP was so severe that it expelled the liberals from Germany’s national parliament, the Bundestag, forcing their candidate Charles Lindner to withdraw from active politics. The same can be said for the Greens’ leader, Robert Habeck.
According to the statistics, the Christian Social Union (CSU) and Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) coalition managed to elect 208 representatives, eight seats short of the 316-seat majority.
Therefore, the party led by Merz must form a coalition government to govern, but at least on paper, there does not seem to be a coalition puzzle since the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, a duo previously tested in Angela Merkel’s governments, together hold a majority with 328 parliamentary representatives.
The determining factor for this scenario was the exclusion of the liberals and BSW from parliament.
This data is politically significant because a government with two partners instead of three should provide more stability for a country facing a structural economic crisis and a complex political moment.
Strengthening Europe
Voter turnout in this election was high, and German voters responded.
According to official data, voter turnout exceeded 82% of eligible voters, a six-point increase from 2021. This is a positive signal for democratic systems under pressure, which Europe also welcomes with relief. Despite the controversies and debates sparked by the interventions of U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Elon Musk in the election campaign in favor of the Alternative for Germany, German society resisted, and populist and anti-European parties, although strengthened, will not be in the majority.
In its final stages, the election campaign began to reflect distortions of global scenarios, and on Sunday night, Merz revealed what might become the most important mission of his chancellorship.
According to him, the goal is to achieve independence from the United States. This is an enormous ambition, and to begin, Germany must make radical choices such as reforming the debt ceiling in the constitution.
On this subject, the Financial Times writes that European partners expect Berlin to act courageously.
If it doesn’t, not only will the competitiveness and security of the European Union be threatened, but its survival will also be at risk.
In this election, many European countries were concerned about the results of the German elections, especially because the European Union, amid very high international tensions and while France is grappling with its own internal instability, needs a stable German government.
The hope is that the coalition agreement between the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats will be signed quickly, even before Easter, as Merz has indicated.
In Germany, there are economic policy priorities that must also be included in European decisions to implement Draghi and Letta’s plans.
There is a sense of urgency and possible guidelines; now, the political power to make bold decisions must be present both in Germany and elsewhere in Europe.