Harris Leads on Her Vice Presidential Announcement Day
Kamala Harris is now leading her opponent in the polling averages tracked and averaged by several reputable platforms.
The Real Clear Politics site, which is openly conservative-leaning and includes most polls, especially those favoring Trump, in its average without evaluation, has finally shown Harris in the lead. This is an interesting development. In the averages of The Economist and several other reputable sites and platforms, Harris has also taken the lead over her opponent. It should be noted that The Economist and only one or two other platforms evaluate the polls of institutions in a specialized and detailed manner. The key point is that polling averages are different from prediction models.
Two or three well-known and prominent modelers are active in the United States, with Nate Silver perhaps being the most famous, though not necessarily the best.
Nate Silver, who has long since separated from his famous site and platform, in updating his model for the first time has considered Harris to have a slightly higher chance of winning. It remains to be seen how the polls will change after Harris announces her chosen vice president.