The International Monetary Fund projects that Iran’s economy will shrink by about 6% in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund, with a significant reduction in the forecast for Iran’s economic growth, announced that the country’s economy will face one of the sharpest declines among regional economies in 2026.
In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund has announced that the forecast for emerging and developing economies’ growth in 2026 has decreased from 4.2% in January to 3.9%.
Among these, Iran’s economy has experienced one of the largest declines, and according to this report, alongside Iraq and Qatar, it is among the countries most economically affected by the recent conflict.
This international organization has emphasized that the increase in energy and food prices, along with instability caused by conflicts in the Middle East, will put the most pressure on vulnerable and import-dependent countries.
According to the new estimates, the outlook for Iran’s economic growth has dropped by 7.2 percentage points compared to the January forecast, reaching negative 6.1%.
This significant decline indicates that many developing economies remain highly vulnerable to shocks from oil prices, currency weakness, and fluctuations in investor assessments.
The same report states that the growth forecast for Saudi Arabia in 2026 has also decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.1%.
Additionally, China’s economic growth in 2026 has decreased to 4.4%, which is only 0.1 percentage points less than the previous estimate, a situation that, according to this organization, is partly due to reduced U.S. tariffs and the implementation of economic stimulus policies.
The International Monetary Fund has also emphasized that these forecasts are based on the assumption that the war remains at a limited and relatively short-term level and that current disruptions decrease by mid-2026.