Iran Gate Report on the Plan Russia Drew for Iran
The Iran Gate report on the plan Russia drew for Iran indicates that the activation of the snapback mechanism against Iran and the return of all UN sanctions, which were lifted with the JCPOA resolution, have become more likely than ever. Once again, all clues lead to Russia, a country that has been obstructing the process since the inception of the JCPOA and its revival negotiations. Now, by dragging Iran into the Ukraine war, it seeks to disrupt relations between Iran and Europe and prevent the realization of the JCPOA and the lifting of sanctions.
Former diplomat Hamid Aboutalebi has specifically spoken about three diplomatic steps taken by Russia to divert the JCPOA. These three steps ultimately lead to the violation of Resolution 2231 and return Iran to Chapter VII of the Charter through the snapback mechanism, making Iran more dependent on Russia for another exit. Russia, with its subtle play, has turned the JCPOA and UN Security Council Resolution 2231 into a crisis in the international security arena for Iran.
How Russia Played with Iran
Hamid Aboutalebi wrote that in the first step, Russia took over the spokesperson role in the Vienna negotiations due to Iran’s weakness and complicated the talks, preventing them from reaching a conclusion. This was to ensure that, on one hand, it wouldn’t be alone on the global political stage regarding sanctions, and on the other hand, to reduce the pressure of sanctions on Russia by exploiting methods to combat sanctions and Iran’s position.
In the second step, in the international security arena, it linked the attack on Ukraine to NATO’s expansion to legitimize the attack on Ukraine and, with this method, align China and Iran, which have been NATO’s neighbors since the past century, on its front. A tactic that China cleverly rejected but paved the way for Iran’s third step.
In the third step, it brought the issue of drones and the Iran-West dispute to the UN Security Council, connected the Ukraine issue to Resolution 2231, and put Iran at risk of violating this resolution and the return of all sanctions that were lifted with the JCPOA agreement. It linked a matter that Iran could previously have resolved as a negotiation issue to international security.
If we place Aboutalebi’s analysis alongside the claim of the director of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund, who said that Iran’s sanctions benefit Russia, the puzzle becomes more complete and the situation clearer. He stated on a television program that Iran remains under sanctions, and these sanctions will become tougher, which, to be honest, is good news for us. In the future, we must enter into economic partnership relations and have ambitious plans for investment, including in Iran’s oil and gas sector.
Iran Outplayed by Russia in the Drone Affair
Although Iran’s Foreign Ministry has completely denied the claim of using Iranian-made drones in the attack on Ukraine, it seems that Iran was outplayed by Russia in this matter. From the very beginning, Russia, with a calculated plan, brought Iranian drones into the Ukraine war. Initially, it admitted that we purchased drone shipments from Iran and used them in the Ukraine war, but later questioned the quality and power of Iranian drones.
Russia had said that Iranian drones do not have the necessary quality and efficiency desired by Russia in the war. According to Aboutalebi, after everything it has done, Russia now claims that in drone technology and other military technology dimensions, it is much more advanced than Iran and does not need Iran. For this reason, it opposes the Security Council’s investigation committee.
According to him, this claim would seem correct if it were an independent issue, but now it is Iran and the violation of Resolution 2231 that has become the main subject of the council, not the power of building or using drones. It is Russia that strives to prevent the investigation of drone attacks on ordinary Ukrainians under the guise of supporting Iran.
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, a principled political activist and former parliament member, also pointed to this issue, stating that regarding the sending of drones and other Iranian weapons, it was actually Russia itself that raised a significant part of these news and claims, not Iran. As official authorities in the Islamic Republic of Iran never confirmed the sending of these equipment and weapons to Russia for use in the Ukraine war, but Russia had stated from the beginning that we purchased drone shipments from Iran and used them in the Ukraine war.
According to him, now with the European actions in sanctioning Iran, it is Russia that is most pleased because Moscow, with its actions, managed to create a sanctioned partner for itself in the Ukraine war and add another country alongside it in the list of sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
The United Nations Investigates Iran
Russia achieved its goal and made Iran its ally in the Ukraine conflict. First the French, then the British and Americans claimed that Iranian drones used in the Ukraine attack are equivalent to missiles, especially since missile sanctions against Iran in Resolution 2231 continue until 2023. For this reason, the UN Security Council held a closed-door meeting on Wednesday at the request of the United States, Britain, and France to discuss the issue of Russia’s use of Iranian-made drones in its military aggression against Ukraine.
Nicolas de Rivière, the French ambassador to the UN, told reporters as he left the meeting that we had very clear evidence that the drones were sent from Iran to Russia and used in Ukraine. Ultimately, the European troika on Friday night accused Iran and Russia of violating Resolution 2231 in a two-page letter and called for a technical investigation into the weapons used in the Ukraine war.
Germany, Britain, and France stated in a two-page letter dated Friday, October 21, which reached UN Security Council members and was seen by Reuters, that we call for an investigation by the UN Secretary-General’s team responsible for monitoring the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2231 and are ready to support the Secretary-General’s work in conducting a technical and impartial investigation. Meanwhile, Western officials have announced that there is no focus on reviving the JCPOA, and these negotiations are currently at an impasse and have been temporarily removed from the agenda.