Iran’s Movement in Neutral Gear Towards a Dead End
In the previous narrative of the situation in which Iran finds itself following the peak of public protests and the people’s struggle for their rights, we explored specific aspects of the process of potentially abandoning domestic and foreign policy towards a dead end. Recent developments in Iran and various reactions in the international media, on one hand, and the political interactions of Western officials, on the other, have created new grounds for potentially accelerating the movement of Iranian policy decision-makers towards a dead end.
The crisis, which can still be averted and whose various dimensions can be managed with wisdom, is avoidable. However, it does not seem that there has been any change in the high confidence of the real decision-makers in the successful functioning of their current policies.
Ignoring the regional, ethnic, and class diversity of the protests and its reflection
One of the most important developments in international policy towards Iran has been the serious and unprecedented attention of media and key influential experts to the geographical and ethnic diversity of the Iranian people’s protests. We now hear the names of cities in Iran in expert analyses that few would have imagined being mentioned in foreign media.
Experts now speak with greater confidence about the differences of this protest era compared to past instances. This diversity should be sought in the geographical, class, and ethnic range, and it does not necessarily mean the protest of the majority of people and an endless sea of demonstrators. Whatever the extent and range of these protests, they inherently contain a diversity that provides a potential basis for linking various protests and grievances together.
Naturally, decision-makers can ignore the importance of this diversity in the emergence of protests. However, it should be noted that at the time when various statistics and narratives were compiled for this report, a protest gathering was formed in front of the Social Security Organization on Mirdamad Street, which is a livelihood and economic protest. This is a simple and small case that potentially has an easy scope for expansion.
The phrase ‘tough decisions’ in the current political and economic conditions of Iran holds a special meaning. The dire economic situation and the reduction of oil revenues on one hand, and the squandering of Iran’s oil export capacity in the short term due to Iran’s compulsion to obey Russia and falling behind this country in the line of oil sellers, have created serious economic dangers for Iran.
In these circumstances, decision-makers have carried out several instances of money distribution to calm public opinion and have found increasing salaries and similar measures as a simple solution to address this situation. Such expenditures require a revenue base.
Changes and flexibilities in prices and some increases like the change in gasoline prices in the coming months are a wrong and at the same time simple solution. How and with what security guarantees these decision-makers will implement these changes in the coming months remains to be seen.
Iran’s position in international policy has changed.
One of the significant events in recent weeks has been the highlighting of the unfavorable decision-making situation in Iran and the pointing out by experts and policymakers of the weaknesses in the decision-making structure of the Islamic Republic. Painfully, it must be mentioned that the days of the past week have been scenes of escalating threats from Western officials and specifically the explicitness of American and European officials about the remoteness of finalizing an agreement over the Vienna deal and signing it.
One of the most important reasons for this development must naturally be found in the serious skepticism about the ability and wisdom of Iranian decision-makers among Western officials. In the highly electoral atmosphere of the U.S. these days and weeks, sitting at the negotiating table and registering images and photos of handshakes and agreements would have a severely negative impact on public opinion in various countries.
Iran is now depicted as an official partner of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine, and as we anticipated two weeks ago, European officials have finally officially reacted to this issue, with the French Foreign Minister issuing an official warning to Iran and announcing the accusation of violating the provisions of Resolution 2231. This particular trend should have sounded the alarm for Iranian decision-makers.
Events of October 19
On Wednesday, October 19, the Supreme Leader of Iran explicitly expressed pride in the drone manufacturing industries, and on the other hand, the Security Council’s investigation into Iran’s partnership in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became official. In this context, a closed session of the council was held, and afterwards, the U.S. officially joined Britain and France and declared that Iran is violating Resolution 2231.
In these circumstances, the announcement of new economic and oil collaborations between Iran and Russia was astonishing, and it seems that the official and transparent statement of Iran’s policy to help Russia sell more oil, even though Russia’s plan to sell cheap oil on a large scale has greatly limited Iran’s oil sales, demonstrates the will and interest of Iranian decision-makers in being sanctioned.
America doesn’t waste time.
Robert Malley’s remarks about the future of the JCPOA and the prospect of starting new negotiations or anything similar are the realization of our past predictions. The JCPOA works as a structure to control Iran’s nuclear program. Rafael Grossi, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, in one of his latest statements about Iran’s nuclear program, expressed concern about our country’s nuclear activities and referred to his inspectors’ reports. It is easy to see that there is a high level of confidence among most decision-making and supervisory structures about the ability to control Iran’s nuclear program in various ways.
Robert Malley, relying on this confidence, has stated that discussing the Vienna agreement and reaching an understanding with Iran is a waste of time. Meanwhile, it is the people who bear the pressure of the sanctions.
Europe doesn’t waste time on sanctions.
The latest sanction plans and ideas of the European Union against Iran were unveiled by the German Foreign Minister in the last days of October. This is while various statements condemning the behavior of the Iranian regime towards the people and the violation of civil rights are turning into a pragmatic approach and going beyond merely issuing statements. The narrative that European officials, for example, the French Foreign Minister, have presented about targeted sanctions against Iranian officials indicates the identification of weaknesses among Iranian officials, particularly the financial interests of these officials and their families.
To this situation, one must add the continued arrests and essentially hostage-taking of citizens with European nationality in Iran, which, despite numerous warnings, we have again witnessed new cases in recent weeks. It should be noted that dealing with and sanctioning in this area and similar areas goes beyond the joke and entertainment that Iranian officials present sanctions as. Many mid-level managers and officials, with sanctions and the closure of international interaction spaces, lose the chance to hold high positions and key roles in the field of interaction outside of Iran.
Iran is going through turbulent days, and its position in international policy has changed significantly. If Iranian decision-makers believe that they can control civil protests in the short term with various tools, they should consider that the issue of civil rights, especially the discussion of women’s fundamental rights, is not something that can be easily forgotten.
Iran lacks a means to downplay what is happening internally and does not possess the lobbying power of Saudi civil rights violators, who wash away the black and dirty record of their actions with windfall oil money and lobbying in America.
Beyond that, on days when Israel has stepped in to help Ukrainians to counter Iran’s role in the invasion of Ukraine, it should never be assumed that Russia will take action to defend Iran against potential risks from Israeli actions. The coming week and the days before the U.S. and Israeli elections are crucial days for Iranian decision-makers. A few appropriate actions and timely decisions that guarantee national interests and calm the minds of Iranians even minimally can be beneficial for the future of these decision-makers as well.
In this context, other reports and analyses have been published in Iran Gate, which we recommend you read.
- Iran on the Brink of Dead-End Sanctions
- Increasing Impact of Sanctions on Tehran
- Disaster at Istanbul Crossroads