Is Saudi Arabia the new mediator between Iran and the USA?
Is Saudi Arabia the new mediator between Iran and the USA?
About two years have passed since the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, made possible through China’s mediation. These two years have seen numerous developments in the Middle East, from the war in Gaza to direct conflict between Iran and Israel. Today, especially with Donald Trump coming to power in the United States, not only is the political and strategic alignment in the region but also on an international level, on the verge of change and transformation. It seems Riyadh is ready to play a significant role in this.
Saudi Arabia is set to host one of the most important diplomatic developments in recent years: the meeting of leaders from the United States and Russia.
But can Saudi Arabia’s role extend beyond this, giving the country a key position in resolving disputes between Tehran and Washington? We explored the relations between Tehran and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia’s role in the region, and the prospects for these diplomatic developments with Abdulaziz Sager, one of the most prominent analytical figures in Saudi Arabia and the head of the Gulf Research Center.
Compared to a decade ago, it seems we are in a very different space concerning the relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. We even see Iranian and Saudi officials taking selfies together on planes. How real is this change, and in your opinion, how sustainable is it?
Saudi Arabia has always had a very firm stance towards Iran, meaning Saudi Arabia always says the political system and regime in Iran is the choice of the Iranian people. We have nothing to do with it, whatever choice the Iranian people want to make.
Secondly, we want to see a stable Iran and wish prosperity for the Iranian people, and it is up to the Iranian government to manage this situation.
Any escalation of tension in the region is not in the interest of Iran, Saudi Arabia, or other Gulf countries. The region can benefit from good relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia has refrained from allowing the use of its airspace or land for any military attack against Iran and does not support any military attack against Iran. However, Saudi Arabia firmly states that if the Iranians wish to continue their peaceful nuclear program, that is their decision.
But they must adhere to the agreement they have signed and ensure that there is no deviation from using this peaceful nuclear program, and that it does not become a military program.
And of course, in Saudi Arabia, there is also a tendency that if Iran’s nuclear program becomes military, Saudi Arabia will also head in that direction.
Previously, the Crown Prince had said that if Iran decides to militarize its program, we must use our various options, and one of those options is having a nuclear umbrella by a global power or building our own program, for example, with dual-use or something similar.
But accepting a military nuclear deterrent in the region is not good. In 2004-2005, we proposed a very important major project for a weapons of mass destruction-free Gulf region and at that time invited Iran to listen and participate.
And there was a willingness from Iran.
Yes, Iran was interested, but then they changed and said no, we don’t want the Gulf; we want the Middle East, and in the Middle East, that means you have to involve Israel, and Israel will always claim that we are not signatories to the NPT nuclear non-proliferation treaty and the Additional Protocol.
Iran and the other Gulf countries have signed the NPT, and some of them have also signed the Additional Protocol.
The big puzzle today is that I think the only pressure that Israel and the USA apply against Iran is nuclear and the perception of militarizing the nuclear program, and Iran does not send all the positive signals that are sometimes necessary. They try to emphasize the enrichment level they have reached, breaking the NPT agreement and the sub-five percent level they should adhere to, saying they produce 60 percent.
Some reports indicate that they have reached close to ninety percent at some point. Therefore, it is always the case that the signal coming from Iran does not guarantee the peaceful nature of this program to the Saudis.
Is Saudi Arabia willing to play a role here to motivate Iran to move towards greater stability, for example, when it comes to economic relations? We don’t see much happening in this area.
That’s correct, but the reason is the sanctions against Iran, and the Americans are willing to impose secondary sanctions.
We normalized relations in March 2023; diplomats have been exchanged between the two countries, and for the first time, the Iranian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Institute visited the Saudi Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Institute in Riyadh.
We are doing everything we can.
But when it comes to expanding trade and investment relations, there is the issue of sanctions that we have to face.
And the USA will always have its secondary sanctions, and if imposed, they can harm everyone and have no benefit, so what should we do?
We need a change in perspective in Iran, ensuring that this program is for peaceful use and not for militarization, while also dealing with the challenge with the USA and the situation with the USA. We have several scenarios: maintaining the status quo, continuing sanctions and pressure, and what has been called maximum pressure; secondly, negotiation between Iran and the USA, and that negotiation can take place to see where acceptable compromises lie.
But remember one thing, as long as Israel is behind the USA and this matter, they want zero enrichment, so this is another issue that needs to be addressed.
Do you think the Americans want the same thing?
Well, America doesn’t want war, but they want to apply maximum pressure, but if Netanyahu decides to take military action, he can and will gain US support.
Therefore, the third scenario will be the failure of negotiation or compromise and Israel’s insistence on carrying out a targeted attack on a specific site or some other type of attack with full US support.
And frankly, this is very dangerous because if this happens, Iran’s only option will be to retaliate against the attack.
It will target whatever it can as long as it concerns US and Israeli interests. Secondly, this may lead to internal unrest, which could lead to chaos and instability, not only in Iran but in the region, so it is a very delicate issue.
I remember something that Israelis always say: we killed nuclear scientists, we are the ones who targeted centrifuges using cyberattacks, we are the ones who have the most important political lobby worldwide against Iran’s nuclear program.
And they are somewhat proud of having such a stance on this nuclear program because in their strategic thinking, they want only Israel to have nuclear deterrence capability.
Another issue is the current US government. Mr. Trump wants to have an important meeting with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia during his first visit. How do you see this?
I hope so, and I think it shows that Saudi Arabia has always said we must have independent and balanced policies.
That’s why we can host both, because when the conference was held in Switzerland, the Russians were not there.
Saudi Arabia did not sign the final statement, and all Arab countries except one did not sign the statement because we felt they should have a fair stance so that the Russians would also be there to present their case and position.
What about the Ukrainians? Their fate might also be determined without them sitting at the table in Saudi Arabia.
No, I think there is a lot of coordination with Ukraine; see, this is a lever that can be used.
Both sides have been greatly harmed; many have been killed, and the damage has been extensive. I think the Ukrainians will be consulted and will be informed about everything.
Because ultimately, those two countries must sign an agreement with each other. The Americans can lift sanctions, but they cannot stop the war.
They can address some economic issues and so forth and allow Russia to return to the market, but they cannot, for example, end the occupation of territories.
How do you see the impact of this important event in Saudi Arabia? Perhaps the most important meeting of the year is set to happen in that country. Can it strengthen Saudi Arabia’s role as a mediator?
In my opinion, the Saudis do not market themselves well and prefer to be modest in what they do and not talk about it.
I think you mean, of course, in the diplomatic arena.
In the diplomatic arena and also in the economic support they provide to many countries, as well as their involvement in many humanitarian issues. For example, regarding Ukraine, see what our position has been. We oppose Russia’s military invasion and voted against the Russian aggression at the United Nations.
We issued a statement in the Gulf Cooperation Council led by Saudi Arabia on this matter.
Two years ago, the Saudi Foreign Minister took a direct 14-hour train journey from Munich to Kyiv, and his message was that we insist on Ukraine’s unity. We always believe in a diplomatic solution to resolve problems.
These, alongside humanitarian aid and helping free some prisoners, but at the same time, we do not want to cut ties with Russia because this country is an important part of OPEC+.
Saudi Arabia not being a NATO member has helped in hosting such a meeting because, for example, Turkey had a similar approach and could have been a suitable place for such a meeting.
Yes, firstly, Turkey is a NATO member, and Turkey is heavily involved in the food issue between Ukraine and Russia and has an important role there, so they should not be underestimated.
But I think due to Saudi Arabia’s position, its membership in the G20, the invitation to Saudi Arabia to join BRICS, which has not yet been finalized, and Russia’s view of Saudi Arabia as a balanced Muslim country, led to this country being chosen as the host for such a meeting.
Do you think the Saudi Crown Prince can play a similar role concerning Iran?
Honestly, I have two sincere pieces of advice for Iran: now be careful with your statements and behavior because it is a very sensitive time.
We do not need provocative statements that can annoy your enemy and justify that enmity. That’s one.
Secondly, focus on your friends who can help, and if Putin claims to have a good relationship with Trump and if Saudi Arabia also has a good relationship with Trump, use this tool to help achieve an acceptable solution for this program.
But make sure to choose the topic of development for the Iranian people as your slogan, not the slogan of regional superpower deterrence and such things. Such slogans will not work this time.
You say friends, but some may disagree with you because they say Russia essentially uses Iran for its benefit and will sell out Iran when the time comes. And regarding Saudi Arabia, the term competition is used more than friendship because the view is that if Saudi Arabia and Israel normalize relations, the Saudis will not wait for Iran, and this is not a friendship.
Saudi relations will never normalize with Israel unless there is a two-state solution or a Palestinian state involved. This has been emphasized many times, so there is no compromise on that.
But the question is, what concerns are there? I mean, the Beijing agreement between Tehran and Riyadh dealt with bilateral issues, but there was a lot of regional agenda that was never addressed, like energy security, maritime security, interventionist policies, expansionist policies, sectarian issues, etc.
All these issues are an important regional topic that needs to be addressed, so Iran cannot selectively choose only the part it wants without considering the entire parameters that lead to improving and enhancing relations and moving it towards cooperation. Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, will be in Riyadh next week, maybe tomorrow or the day after.
And I think this signals that there is good cooperation and coordination between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reduce tensions in the region.