Israel’s Adventure
In recent days, a series of events have unfolded in the confrontation scene between Israel and resistance forces, bringing the region closer to a final showdown and indicating new adventures by Israel. As we approach the U.S. presidential election, these adventures are taking on new dimensions.
Netanyahu was almost at ease with Joe Biden’s presence in the race. With Biden’s withdrawal, new conditions have emerged that shake Trump’s position. It is clear that Netanyahu is doing everything he can to influence the U.S. election, and it is evident that his preferred choice is Donald Trump.
After Iran’s drone missile attack on Israel in April, which was called the ‘Truthful Promise,’ Israel showed a cautious and minimal response.
Before that, Israel had repeatedly attacked Iranian targets in Syria, including the Iranian consulate office in Damascus.
Israel was even unafraid to carry out targeted assassinations within Iran.
It seemed that with the ‘Truthful Promise’ operation, Iran was able to employ another level of deterrence that was accepted by Israel and its Western supporters, effectively drawing new red lines between Iran and Israel.
However, it was clear that this level of acceptance could not satisfy Netanyahu and his right-wing extremist faction.
Israel’s fireworks in Yemen after the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv was a widespread reaction that was disproportionate to other attacks of this kind and indicated the start of these new adventures.
Netanyahu tried to send a clear message to Iran after that attack.
In the second phase, we witnessed the fall of a missile in the occupied Golan area, targeting several children on a football field.
Israel’s fingers of accusation immediately pointed at Hezbollah, while Hezbollah completely denied such an attack.
Essentially, targeting an area inhabited by Druze Syrians, who, despite four decades of occupation, have not accepted Israeli citizenship, and the civilian nature of the target point increased the ambiguities of this attack. Israel’s response was to hit a building in Beirut’s Dahiya, which is said to have housed Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top field operations figure.
However, the third adventure is the most important and signifies a meaningful escalation.
This attack took place on Iranian soil and targeted the top figure of Hamas, who was on an official diplomatic trip to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
The legal and international dimensions of this affair are one thing, but its political message to Iran is very provocative, meaning that Israel has challenged Iran’s desired deterrence concept and established new red lines.
Is the aim of this attack to disrupt a process that could, with Kamala Harris’s candidacy in the U.S. elections, weaken Israel’s and Netanyahu’s position in America?
Joe Biden, despite his differences with Netanyahu, has helped Israel’s interests more than any other president, even Trump. But this time, the choice is between Kamala Harris and Trump, and Ms. Harris showed in her initial stance that she will not give Netanyahu Biden’s blank check.
Her goal is to garner support from war opponents, and if she comes to power, pressures on Netanyahu will increase.
Influencing the U.S. elections is probably just one of the motivations behind the new adventures of Israeli right-wingers. Israel is the only Middle Eastern country that possesses nuclear weapons.
From the Israelis’ perspective, the pressures and regional encirclement might one day compel them to use it.
Given that American security sources announced just a few days ago that Iran is only two weeks away from a nuclear breakout point, does Netanyahu’s new adventure mean a new strategy to return to the previous level of deterrence or to create another level to Iran’s detriment?
To answer this question, we must wait for the official reaction from Iran and other regional and global players, especially the U.S., although guessing reactions in a region where the primary function of politics is to inflict the most pain on the enemy is not too difficult.