The sooner, the better.
The new government has named its own agenda ‘National and Social Harmony’. It hopes that harmony has a close and meaningful connection with hope. It is not possible to expect harmony and solidarity in an atmosphere of despair. Lack of hope and uncertainty about relatively clear futures are one of the fundamental issues in Iranian society. The absence of visionary capacities in social and political life is a weakness. This issue has been demonstrated on one hand in national surveys and on the other hand in the level of participation in elections.
Although the majority of the Iranian society, about 62%, believe that the current situation must be addressed through reforms, close to 60% of eligible voters did not participate in the last elections held in the country. On the other hand, hope for improvement in the country’s situation in the foreseeable future is very weak.
Close to 80% of respondents in the fourth wave of the National Values and Attitudes Survey of 2023 believed that the country’s economic conditions have worsened compared to the past 5 years, and about 71% also believed that the country’s economic conditions will worsen in the next 5 years. Regarding the prevalence of positive traits in society, about 74% believed that it has worsened compared to the past 5 years, and about 65% also said that the prevalence of these traits will worsen in the next 5 years.
Just a few statistics clearly show that today the Iranian society evaluates itself worse than yesterday and expects a worse tomorrow, indicating a lack of positive outlook and hope for the future in the trend of life in the country.
One of the fundamental issues in Iranian society is the persistence of such a situation over a long period of time. Almost the same evaluation can be found in the results of the first to third wave of values and attitudes surveys of Iranians. In other words, based on the findings of national surveys from 2000 to 2023, just over two decades, and considering other findings, Iranians have believed that the moral, economic, political, and social situation, as well as social harms in Iranian society, have been on a deteriorating trend.
The existence of this mindset and its reinforcement by some existing constraints and rigidities, along with official interventions in daily life, has negatively affected Iranians’ perception of the possibility of a desirable life in the country. Extensive emigrations of Iranians in the past two decades have mainly been due to such understanding and recognition of the current situation, and the effort to choose another space to achieve a desirable and desired life.
The formation of a kind of hope in the early months of the emergence of new governments, including the fourteenth government, is not due to structural and enduring changes but arises from the psychological atmosphere of elections and hope for change in policies and programs in the new government, creating new conditions to improve the socio-environmental space in various ethical, economic, political, and social dimensions.
This hope arising from the psychological atmosphere of elections will not be so stable.
Despite many experts expressing from the beginning the incapacity of the thirteenth government to improve the current situation, it enjoyed this hope in society, which was not so stable. Despite all the official propaganda to demonstrate its various successes, due to various reasons intertwined with people’s lived experiences, the government failed to create hope in society and provide a positive outlook and perspective in society, leading to the sidelining of the country’s elite society in various scientific, cultural, and artistic sectors in those years due to the lack of this positive perspective.
The new government has named its discourse the National and Social Consensus. Consensus has a close and meaningful connection with hope. It is not possible to expect consensus and solidarity in a space of despair. Consensus should not only exist in the layer and level of power centers and political forces, but also needs to be reproduced in various social layers and levels. Only then will society feel that the social space is changing towards a dignified life.
In this process, the government must keep an eye on the 60 percent who, despite the presence of all reformist groups, did not participate in the elections. Although there are many doubts in a significant part of society regarding the new government’s ability to improve the turbulent domestic situation and external relations, as we are in the honeymoon period of the government, a temporary hope has emerged from the elections and the establishment of the new government. It seems that these doubts have also extended to this area, and a part of that 60 percent, along with the election participants, are waiting for government actions to reassess the country’s conditions.
If the government of Mr. Pzshkian can take tangible steps to reduce pressure on society in social, cultural, and economic fields in the coming months, such as minimal openings in issues related to women, youth, internet, business space, and foreign relations, then it can be expected that more sustainable hopes will be nurtured in Iranian society. This hope will act as a driving force for the community to address challenges in collaboration and solidarity with the government, meaning active harmony. It will make Iranians more hopeful about the future, with a relatively brighter and broader perspective, leading to a reduction in the trend of Iranian migration, especially among elite youth. It will also foster a sense of vitality and evaluation of the future in the national exploration of Iranian values and attitudes in the year 1406. Mr. Pzshkian knows well that sometimes it’s a matter of timing, so timely implementation of changes is essential to achieve goals.
