It’s Rouhani’s turn
The news of Hassan Rouhani’s disqualification from the Assembly of Experts election, while expected, is still surprising. These two aspects are not contradictory in this case. Although he is not the first Iranian president to be disqualified from running for an election after his presidency, this event is more surprising than previous instances from ten perspectives. It should be noted here that any outcome is possible, whether this news is annulled or even after the announcement, it should not be considered final. There might be an intervention or ruling that allows his return to the Assembly of Experts election. However, this writing assumes that he is not allowed.
1. Although the qualifications of two previous Iranian presidents were not approved for elections after their presidency, Rouhani was nominated for the Assembly of Experts, not the presidency. This assembly does not require continuous and 24-hour presence like the presidency, so the justification used for Rafsanjani’s rejection in 2013, citing age, cannot be repeated for him. Moreover, his age is less than Rafsanjani’s was in 2013.
2. Some supporters of reform and moderation were worried that if Rouhani were approved, since the parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections are not as appealing to reformists and moderates as before, people might not vote just because of his name. Then it could be said that the election was competitive and Rouhani did not win, benefiting from his candidacy and also from his failure to win. Disqualifying Rouhani eliminates this scenario.
3. Some conservative media reported pressure from reformists on Rouhani to withdraw, as his presence would cause discord in decision-making about the election. Regardless of whether this news is true or fabricated, his disqualification satisfies the claims of reformists and moderates who oppose Rouhani’s candidacy.
4. Someone who has been a member of the Assembly of Experts for 24 years has not lost his scholarly and jurisprudential qualifications after three terms. It is not like the presidency where age could be a reason for rejection. One possibility is that his differing views with the leadership on the nuclear deal and other issues, and publicly expressing some of these views in official forums, might be the reason.
These issues might have seemed justifiable for a presidential re-election, but usually, the Assembly of Experts is removed from these discussions. As Rafsanjani became the head of this assembly, another possibility is that Rouhani’s presence might anger new conservatives, and they prefer to motivate their determined and active base rather than giving concessions to others.
5. Extreme conservatives and new conservatives perceive Rouhani as an outsider in their circle and sometimes hold more resentment against him than Khatami. When in a university’s Islamic Revolution course material, it is mentioned that the Shah had some services and not all his actions were betrayals, Rouhani is likened to this, implying that despite his mistakes, he also had services. This suggests a deeper narrative.
6. It is more surprising because Rouhani’s presence in the Assembly of Experts and inviting people to participate in elections instead of boycotting them might have caused a split with the reformist front, which looks at this issue from the perspective of meaning and lack thereof. Now, they are aligned.
7. The disqualification of Ayatollah Khomeini’s grandson was attributed to his refusal to take a jurisprudential test, but a representative with three 8-year terms cannot be subjected to such a test, as Rouhani is still a member of the Assembly of Experts. This is more surprising.
8. If the election result is more important than high participation, this disqualification is not surprising. However, from the perspective of increasing participation, it is. Additionally, Ebrahim Raisi has not nominated himself for the Assembly of Experts from Tehran to avoid competition with Rouhani and a repeat of 2016.
9. If Rouhani anticipated this event and entered this game, it benefits him. Even if he returns without moderating his positions, have Rouhani’s opponents acted in his favor, or have they not considered this and continue their path, removing obstacles ahead?
10. Considering that 2024 is a year of multiple elections worldwide, with the most important being the U.S. presidential election in November 2023, the fact that Iran’s election was not the focus of think tanks that mentioned various elections was noteworthy. According to these think tanks, it does not result in a change in the political structure, while elections elsewhere lead to significant changes. This oversight has spurred more activity among conservatives.
Now, with the disqualification of a former president for membership in an assembly that acts as a board of trustees in the Islamic Republic, global attention is drawn, but from a negative perspective.