Last Evening with Zelensky
Zelensky says Ukraine is the next star of the European Union, but delays in the allocation of aid from the United States and the EU weaken support for Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, stated at a press conference in Kyiv, ‘We will not lose the war against Russia even if we do not know when it will end.’ He further explicitly declared that the Ukrainian army needs to mobilize 450,000 to 500,000 effective military personnel.
The President of Ukraine explained to reporters that the matter is very sensitive and asked, ‘From where and what resources should we procure financial aid?’ However, at the same time, Zelensky claimed that his allies, the United States and Europe, will continue to support Ukraine.
In his public speech at the end of 2023, Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian soldiers who have been on the front lines for almost two years and praised the significant victory in the Black Sea against the Russian navy, referring to the revival of some exports via sea after months of a naval blockade imposed by Moscow.
Nevertheless, after the failed counteroffensive in the summer, Kyiv’s army now finds itself in a cold winter with a new war and fewer weapons than expected, facing an offensive by Russian forces in the east of the country.
In response to reporters asking about the end of his presidency in March next year, Zelensky dismissed the possibility of holding elections during wartime. The President also joked about the opening of the EU to negotiations for Ukraine’s accession, which was approved last week. Referring to the EU flag behind him, he said, ‘Ukraine will be the next star on the EU flag.’
The Shadow of Trump over Ukraine
Currently in the United States, the $60 billion support package requested by the Biden administration for Kyiv has been blocked by the Republican majority in Congress. Democratic and Republican leaders have said that Washington cannot approve new aid by the end of the year, and both parties are still seeking a compromise.
Chuck Schumer, the leader of the Senate Democrats, told reporters, ‘Our negotiators will work diligently during the December and January holidays. Our goal is to take action as soon as we return, but the budgets that need to be allocated against Russia are becoming a political knot and a challenge between the two parties.’
Meanwhile, the President of Ukraine admitted that if Donald Trump is re-elected as the President of the United States in 2024, it could significantly change the outcome of the conflict and war. Zelensky acknowledged, ‘If the policy of the next president, whoever it may be, is different towards Ukraine, colder or more prudent, I think these signals will have a very deep impact on the course of the war.’
Challenge Among Leaders
Despite efforts to show unity, even Kyiv is not immune to division, and signs of friction between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the head of the armed forces, are increasing to the point that, according to national media, the army chief might be dismissed.
Based on a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the vast majority of Ukrainians not only do not support Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal but also consider it a negative action. According to this survey, public trust in Zaluzhnyi is close to 92%, while public trust in Zelensky is close to 77%. It is said that his popularity has decreased compared to previous months.
Although Zaluzhnyi could not reclaim areas occupied by Russia in the past summer’s counteroffensive, he is very popular among Ukrainians for leading the armed forces of Ukraine and pushing back the Russians in the initial weeks and months following the invasion. Some observers argue that his popularity poses a political threat to the President, whose term ends next year, as this popularity makes the general a potential rival who could challenge Zelensky. Consequently, the disagreement at the top of Kyiv’s leadership has worried allies and carries the risk of undermining the country’s unity.
The Vital Importance of Financial Support for Ukraine
In the recent visit of the President of Ukraine to Washington, Zelensky received numerous promises from senior U.S. officials, lawmakers from both parties, and U.S. President Joe Biden, but in reality, he returned from this mission empty-handed.
Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington and Brussels have been the largest providers of military and economic aid to Kyiv, keeping both its armed forces and government operational. Today, their failure to ensure Kyiv’s financial stability at a critical moment occurs as Ukraine’s counteroffensive aimed at liberating areas occupied by Russia has failed, and Ukraine’s firepower is running out just as Moscow has multiplied its airstrikes against the country’s infrastructure, coinciding with the onset of winter.
Last week’s European summit, which agreed to start negotiations for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, ended without an agreement on financing 50 billion euros for Ukraine over four years. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his year-end press conference, said, ‘Ukraine today produces almost nothing; everything comes from the West, but free aid will end sooner or later, and it seems that it is already the case.’ The assurance of officials about the possibility of reaching an agreement by the end of January seems impossible. A Western diplomat told the Financial Times, ‘This was a moment for European leaders to step up, and apparently they have lost sight of the goal.’
Some observers believe that the current moment may be the toughest for Ukraine since the invasion began, considering that the U.S. Congress and the latest European Council have postponed the allocation of new military and financial aid to Kyiv until the beginning of the new year. It seems that Western support is significantly faltering.
To complicate matters for Ukraine, there are movements within the country desperately searching to deploy new forces to the front lines. Just a few days ago, Zelensky announced that Ukraine’s military leaders plan to mobilize an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people for the armed forces, highlighting the urgent need to find men to counter new Russian operations, which, if poorly managed, could lead to severe social tensions. Overall, as Ukraine and its people approach the third year of conflict, 2024 could fundamentally change the dynamics of the conflict.