Middle East conflict resembles Balkan war
The Middle East is on the brink of a Sarajevo moment, a major conflict between Israel and Iran that is becoming more likely by the day.
Tehran and Tel Aviv have the choice between war or peace, but another leader also plays a critical role: Joe Biden, the President of the United States.
To stop the conflict before it escalates uncontrollably, he must show more authority and be less passive compared to what he has done over the past year.
With the escalation of exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, these conflicts have expanded beyond the Levant plus Yemen and have turned into a direct war between Israel and Iran.
If they do not de-escalate now, the scale of the battle and its strategic impact both in the region and beyond could be far greater than what we have seen so far. The United States will undoubtedly be drawn into this war.
In fact, Netanyahu welcomes this situation; it has always been part of his strategic plan, and Tehran may find it inevitable.
Tragically, the internal debate among Biden’s senior team is not about whether Israel should launch major attacks against Iran, but rather about where and how, while Biden himself even publicly advises. It is unclear if there are any methods to break the cycle of escalating violence.
For much of the past year, the United States has effectively acted as a remote warrior in its almost endless support for Israel’s war efforts on multiple fronts. Israel is completely reliant on U.S. weapons and other support, which is provided abundantly and with very few restrictions on their use. Also, add the direct role of America in intercepting two Iranian missile attacks.
While Washington has supported de-escalation in both Gaza and now Lebanon, these efforts have mostly been limited to persuading the warring parties and have not involved imposing a ceasefire.
The United States and Israel do not completely share interests regarding Iran; both welcome regime change in Iran.
Israel also desires the disintegration of Iran and has worked towards this over the years. In contrast, Biden and his team should have by now understood what chaos such a development would create in the region and beyond.
The most important strategic interest of Washington in Iran has been to prevent or preempt the development of nuclear weapons. However, Netanyahu has undermined America’s efforts in this area for years.
In 2015, China, Russia, France, Germany, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States reached a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement effectively halted and suspended Iran’s nuclear program, and Tehran adhered to its commitments.
Netanyahu opposed this agreement at every step, including his direct appeal to Congress in 2015, where he vehemently opposed any deal with Iran that would allow it to have a civilian nuclear program.
His efforts paid off when President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
When Biden came to power in 2021, he could have easily rejoined the agreement, as he reversed many of Trump’s destructive actions, but he did not. Instead, he engaged in a prolonged process to negotiate a better deal with Iran.
No fair observer considered the negotiations serious because neither Israel nor its supporters in America wanted this agreement. Ironically, the President of Iran confirmed his government’s readiness to rejoin the JCPOA at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, but Biden’s team ignored him.
In diplomacy regarding Gaza, President Biden has long openly emphasized the need for a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas, but he has failed to put American power behind this request.
Therefore, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior American officials have visited the region repeatedly, but Biden has refrained from demanding that Netanyahu genuinely support an agreement.
Even when Hamas showed relative flexibility, Netanyahu introduced new demands. Besides a limited halt in supplying 2,000-pound bombs, Biden has taken no action to condition or stop arms supplies to Israel, even temporarily, while Israel has thwarted American diplomacy. Biden does not even condition continued American military support on Israel and Egypt opening borders for the free flow of vital humanitarian aid.
With Biden’s reluctance to do more than talk about a ceasefire in Gaza and also practically accepting Israel’s trampling of any progress in Palestinian rights, let alone a two-state solution, Netanyahu saw no obstacle to taking the next step in his long-term strategy: uprooting Hezbollah from Lebanon. Here, Biden practically gave the green light to Israel’s relentless bombing campaign and ground invasion, which has so far displaced over a million Lebanese and killed 2,000 others, including Hezbollah fighters and civilians.
Moreover, the current danger is that Biden will take no action. He may talk and persuade but does not demand, while Netanyahu focuses his military efforts on Iran, a front that is much more crucial for the future of the entire Middle East and America’s strategic interests there.
As always, Netanyahu has made precise calculations about American domestic politics.
With only a month left until the presidential election, he knows Biden will take no action to end Israel’s military operations until November 5 or even Inauguration Day in January. Biden will not risk alienating Israel and its powerful lobby in Washington.
His only request from Netanyahu is not to attack sensitive sites in Iran, sites that could make a major war inevitable, a war that would militarily involve America. Therefore, he probably will not prevent an escalation of the conflict.
In fact, it has long been Netanyahu’s dream for the United States to solve Israel’s Iranian problem.
American public support for Israel’s basic security has always been strong, although sometimes, especially in the 1956 Suez War and the 1982 Beirut siege, Washington has opposed some of Israel’s aggressive military operations.
Some of Israel’s policies, such as the settlement of hundreds of thousands of Israeli Jews in the West Bank, have also been condemned as contrary to international law, though again mostly through speeches rather than serious actions.
As Israel’s most prominent and powerful supporter, America must now clearly inform Israel that continued U.S. military and diplomatic support will be at risk if Netanyahu and his allies do not fully consider America’s assessments of Israel’s security needs.
Israel must also consider U.S. interests, which include not increasing the risks of a major war. In that case, America and others can also encourage Iran to cease fire, otherwise, Iran will be at risk of engaging in a devastating war. Tehran may understand this. If Biden seeks to prevent this Sarajevo moment, he must now prioritize U.S. interests instead of continuing to focus on Israel’s vision and desires.
A test for Biden’s presidency in foreign policy is now underway. It is still unclear whether he will do what he must, as his duty as Commander-in-Chief requires.