The Middle East conflict resembles the Balkan war
The Middle East is on the verge of a Sarajevo moment, a major conflict between Israel and Iran that becomes more likely by the day.
Tehran and Tel Aviv have the choice between war or peace, but another leader also plays a critical role: Joe Biden, the President of the United States.
To stop the conflict before it becomes uncontrollably escalated, he must show more authority and be less passive compared to what he has done over the past year.
With the expansion of exchanges of fire between Israel and Iran, this series of conflicts has extended beyond the Levant plus Yemen and has turned into a direct war between Israel and Iran.
If they do not de-escalate now, the scale of the battle and its strategic impact both in the region and beyond could be far greater than what we have seen so far. The United States will certainly be drawn into this war.
In fact, Netanyahu welcomes this situation; it has always been part of his strategic plan, and Tehran might find it inevitable.
Tragically, the internal debate among Biden’s senior team is not about whether Israel should launch major attacks against Iran, but about where and how, while Biden himself, even in public, gives advice. The methods to break the cycle of escalating violence, if they exist, are not clear.
For most of the past year, the United States has effectively acted as a distant warrior in its almost endless support of Israel’s war efforts on multiple fronts. Israel is completely dependent on U.S. weapons and other support, which are supplied abundantly and with very few limitations on their use. Also, add America’s direct role in intercepting two Iranian missile attacks.
While Washington has supported de-escalation in both Gaza and now Lebanon, these efforts have mostly been limited to persuading the warring parties and have not acted to impose a cessation of hostilities.
The United States and Israel do not fully share interests regarding Iran; both welcome regime change in Iran.
Israel also desires the disintegration of Iran and has worked over the years to achieve it. In contrast, Biden and his team must have realized by now the chaos such a development would cause in the region and beyond.
Washington’s most important strategic interest in Iran has been to prevent or preclude the development of nuclear weapons. However, Netanyahu has undermined years of U.S. efforts in this area.
In 2015, China, Russia, France, Germany, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States reached a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This agreement effectively halted and suspended Iran’s nuclear program, and Tehran adhered to its commitments.
Netanyahu opposed this agreement at every step, including his direct appeal to Congress in 2015, strongly opposing any agreement with Iran that would allow it to have a civilian nuclear program.
His efforts paid off when President Donald Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
When Biden came to power in 2021, he could have easily rejoined the agreement, just as he reversed many of Trump’s destructive actions, but he did not. Instead, he engaged in a lengthy process to negotiate a better deal with Iran.
No fair observer considered the negotiations serious because neither Israel nor its supporters in America wanted this agreement. Ironically, the President of Iran confirmed his government’s readiness to rejoin the JCPOA at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month. Biden’s team ignored him.
In diplomacy regarding Gaza, President Biden has long openly emphasized the need for a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas, but he has failed to put American power behind this request.
Therefore, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other senior U.S. officials have repeatedly visited the region, but Biden has refrained from requesting that Netanyahu genuinely support an agreement.
Even when Hamas showed relative flexibility, Netanyahu presented new demands. Apart from a limited halt in supplying 2000-pound bombs, Biden has taken no action to condition or stop arms supplies to Israel, even temporarily, while Israel has thwarted American diplomacy. Biden does not even condition ongoing U.S. military support on Israel and Egypt opening borders for the free flow of vital humanitarian aid.
With Biden’s reluctance to do more than talk about a ceasefire in Gaza and also practically accepting the trampling of any progress in Palestinian rights by Israel, let alone a two-state solution, Netanyahu saw no obstacle to taking the next step in his long-term strategy: eradicating Hezbollah from Lebanon. Here, Biden effectively gave the green light to Israel’s relentless bombing campaign and ground invasion, which has so far displaced over a million Lebanese and killed 2,000 others, including Hezbollah fighters and civilians.
Furthermore, the current danger is that Biden will not take action; he may talk and persuade but does not demand, while Netanyahu shifts his military focus to Iran, a front that is far more important for the future of the entire Middle East and America’s strategic interests there.
As always, Netanyahu has made precise calculations about American domestic politics.
With only a month left until the presidential election, he knows Biden will take no action until Israel completes its military work by November 5 or even Inauguration Day in January. Biden will not risk alienating Israel and its powerful lobby in Washington.
His only request from Netanyahu is not to attack sensitive sites in Iran, sites that could make a major war inevitable, a war that would militarily involve America. So, it probably will not prevent escalation.
In fact, it has long been Netanyahu’s dream for the United States to solve Israel’s Iranian problem.
American public support for Israel’s basic security has always been strong, although sometimes, especially during the 1956 Suez War and the 1982 Beirut siege, Washington opposed some of Israel’s aggressive military operations.
Also, some of Israel’s policies, such as the settlement of hundreds of thousands of Israeli Jews in the West Bank, have been condemned as contrary to international law, but again mostly through speeches rather than serious actions.
As the most prominent and powerful supporter of Israel, America must now clearly tell Israel that ongoing U.S. military and diplomatic support will be at risk if Netanyahu and his allies do not fully consider America’s assessments of Israel’s security needs.
Israel must also consider U.S. interests, which include not increasing the risks of a major war. In that case, America and others could encourage Iran to cease fire. Otherwise, Iran risks facing a devastating war. Tehran may have understood this. If Biden seeks to prevent this Sarajevo moment, he must now prioritize U.S. interests instead of continuing to focus on Israel’s vision and desires.
A test for Biden’s presidency in foreign policy is now on the way. It is still unclear whether he will do what he must do, what his duty as Commander-in-Chief requires.
