Netanyahu’s Tough Times
Israel’s Netanyahu and the Risk of Collapse
Netanyahu’s tough times didn’t start well this week for Benjamin Netanyahu, but luck was on his side as his government managed to retain its confidence in the Knesset, and the no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister failed. This week, the Israeli army suffered its deadliest attack since the start of the conflict with Hamas, and it’s believed that there is no agreement for a two-month ceasefire. The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, overcame the parliamentary no-confidence motion amid protests, but political issues are mounting both domestically and internationally.
The hostage crisis and significant losses among the Israeli army have shaken public consensus towards the executive branch, with half of Israelis currently agreeing to halt the conflict based on the U.S.-proposed roadmap, which focuses on normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Thanks to the crisis in the Red Sea, where the Houthis continue their attacks on passing ships, rumors from Washington suggest that the Biden administration’s patience with Tel Aviv’s actions is wearing thin.
Meanwhile, Hamas has rejected Israel’s proposal for a two-month ceasefire, dealing a severe blow to negotiations for the release of the remaining hostages in Gaza. Netanyahu, caught between U.S. pressure to end the conflict and escalating tensions, and Israeli citizens who seem increasingly weary of the war, remains clinging to his position as Prime Minister, while being acutely aware that time is not on his side.
The Issue of Trust
On the afternoon of Monday, January 22, the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Netanyahu garnered only 18 votes, far less than the majority required in the Knesset, Israel’s unicameral parliament, which consists of 120 members.
This vote was boycotted by the right-wing and far-right coalition supporting the government, whose leaders had previously announced that they would not participate in such political theater during wartime. The initiative, promoted by the Labor Party, openly speaks of the government’s failure to ensure the return of 136 Israelis still held hostage in the Gaza Strip. Indeed, Netanyahu’s failure to bring back the prisoners trapped in Hamas’s hands has subjected him to increasing criticism from families and his political opponents.
However, a few hours after the vote, family members of the hostages stormed the Jerusalem parliament’s finance committee meeting to demand the government take more action to bring their loved ones back. Yet, dissatisfaction is growing within the trans-government right-wing faction and even within the Likud party itself.
Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the far-right nationalist party Yisrael Beiteinu, was among those who did not vote for the no-confidence motion but emphasized that Netanyahu should resign as soon as possible. Additionally, some Likud party sources openly stated in an interview with the Jerusalem Post that Netanyahu’s days at the head of the party and, therefore, likely at the head of the country, are now numbered.
American-Made Peace
In fact, from the course of the war, which has now transformed from a national to a regional level, it seems that Israelis’ attitudes are also changing and evolving. A slight majority of them support the U.S. plan, which includes the release of all remaining hostages, normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and irreversible steps by Israel to establish a demilitarized Palestinian state.
According to a survey published by the Times of Israel, it is inferred that 51.3% of respondents say they support such an agreement, while 28.9% say they oppose it, and 19.8% do not express an opinion. In this context, Netanyahu has previously flatly rejected a proposal put forth earlier this month by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
In that proposal, Israel was asked to allow Saudi Arabia, along with four other Arab countries, to participate in the reconstruction of Gaza after the war. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced his opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state after the conflict ends, and it is quite clear that Israel and the United States have differing views and visions on this issue.
Time Running Out
It seems that the Israeli Prime Minister is aware that the current situation cannot continue indefinitely. As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, it appears that the Biden administration intends to intensify efforts to resolve the Middle East crisis before the polls open.
Meanwhile, last Friday, for the first time in a month, the U.S. President had a phone conversation with Netanyahu, considering that the previous phone call between Biden and Netanyahu ended abruptly and with displeasure. It is also worth noting that the burden of war and its exorbitant costs weigh heavily on U.S. public opinion.
Additionally, on Monday, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) suffered their deadliest attack since the start of the Gaza Strip invasion, during which 21 soldiers lost their lives in the Kisufim settlement in southern Israel. Operations are currently focused on Khan Yunis, where the Israeli army believes several Hamas leaders are hiding, and the Palestinian death toll is worsening by the hour.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Hamas movement rejected Israel’s proposal for a two-month ceasefire, which reportedly requested the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. Hamas refuses the idea of negotiating for the hostages’ release without a complete and immediate Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.
Ultimately, the actions and behaviors of both sides in the conflict evoke a line from the ghazals of Hafez Shirazi: ‘I do not sense any good from this situation.’