A New Front in Southern Lebanon
On July 21, Israeli warplanes flew 1,800 kilometers in less than three hours and bombed targets in the port city of Hudaydah, Yemen.
Israel has announced that the operation aimed both to retaliate against the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and to disrupt the supply of weapons from Iran to the Houthis, although Iran has denied this accusation.
Nevertheless, Israel’s attack on Hudaydah was the longest-range attack it has conducted beyond its borders.
Perhaps Israel intended to send a message to Iran with this long-range attack and showcase the strength of its air force.
However, it is unlikely that this action will impact Iran’s strategy.
On one hand, intensifying conflicts around Israel could bring strategic advantages for Iran.
But the problem arises when this intensification of conflict around Israel seriously threatens U.S. efforts to stabilize the region in line with its interests, possibly leading to a confrontation between Iran and the U.S.
More than nine months have passed since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis have launched nearly 200 drones and missiles towards Israel.
Most of them have been intercepted, and the rest were not significant enough to divert the Israeli military’s attention from Gaza or low-intensity clashes with Hezbollah along the Lebanese border.
However, on July 19, a drone launched by the Yemeni Houthis evaded Israeli air defenses and struck an apartment near the U.S. embassy, killing an Israeli citizen and injuring dozens more.
The official spokesperson for the Houthis announced that the drone used in this attack was a new type capable of evading Israel’s defense barriers.
The Israeli military claims that this drone was made in Iran and upgraded to increase its range.
The Houthi attack occurred at an inopportune time for Israel.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under increasing domestic and international pressure to agree to a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages.
Meanwhile, ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah have raised the specter of a second front opening in northern Israel, which could potentially expand to Syria and even Iraq.
In such circumstances, Israel felt it could not allow another Iran-aligned group to attack from a third front without accepting consequences.
Two days later, Israeli F-15 and F-35 fighter jets targeted oil refining facilities, air force assets, and other targets in and around the port of Hudaydah in the Red Sea, Yemen. The complexity of the Israeli operation, which involved an unknown number of aircraft for refueling and intelligence gathering, will certainly not go unnoticed in Tehran.
The message Israel intended to send was that it can still fight on multiple fronts and could even attack Iranian soil.
Importantly, according to Israeli officials, the airstrikes on Hudaydah were carried out without U.S. involvement, although Washington was informed in advance.
Since forming a multinational coalition in December 2023 to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea against Houthi attacks, the U.S. has kept them in its sights.
However, despite the Houthis’ alliance with Iran, their main goal is to expand their territory in Yemen to the east and south, particularly to the port of Aden, and ultimately emerge as the undisputed rulers of the country.
The Houthis use Hezbollah’s method to overcome the resistance of their domestic rivals, many of whom are aligned with Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.
Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis hope that by establishing credibility in resisting Israel and showing solidarity with the Palestinians, they can attract more Yemenis to their side and increase their power.
Among Iran-backed groups in the Arab world, the Houthis hold unique value due to their presence at the point where the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea converge.
This location enables the Yemeni group to control the transport of international trade through areas that account for 15 percent of global trade.
In the long term, a Houthi-controlled Yemen could serve as a vital base for Iran, which seeks to develop a naval force.
In the short term, continued conflicts between Israel and the Houthis contribute to the instability of Iran’s main rival, Saudi Arabia, which is trying to reach an agreement with Israel so that the two can form a security bloc against Tehran.
Over the past decades, Iran has worked to create a network of resistance forces that can attack Israel from various directions. Iran feels assured that Israel cannot fully destroy this network nor can it directly engage in a sustained war with the Islamic Republic.
Therefore, Iran’s strategy is to weaken Israel’s power on its northern and southern flanks. Iran hopes this will potentially make the region more receptive to Iranian influence.
Even if this goal seems distant, it would still be a nightmare scenario for Washington, as the U.S. has far more tools to counter Iran than Israel does.
Interestingly, many of America’s actions in the region since 2001 have ultimately benefited Iran.
Thus, the challenge for the next U.S. administration is either to reach a compromise and understanding with Iran or to find a way to counter and push back Iran in the region.
Currently, it seems that the U.S. prioritizes the former path.