New Front in Southern Lebanon
In a new front in southern Lebanon, Israeli warplanes flew over 800 kilometers in less than three hours on July 21 and bombed targets in the coastal city of Hodeidah in Yemen.
Israel has stated that the purpose of the operation was to retaliate against the Houthi drone attack on Tel Aviv and disrupt the flow of weapons from Iran to the Houthis, although Iran has denied these accusations.
Nevertheless, Israel’s attack on Hodeidah was the longest-range attack Israel has carried out beyond its borders.
Perhaps Israel intended to send a long-range message to Iran with this attack and showcase the power of its air force.
However, it is unlikely that this action will have any impact on Iran’s strategy.
On one hand, escalating tensions around Israel could have strategic benefits for Iran in the long run.
But the problem arises when this escalation of tensions around Israel seriously threatens US efforts to create stability in the region in line with its interests, potentially leading to a confrontation between Iran and the US.
More than 9 months after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, the Houthis have fired nearly 200 drones and missiles towards Israel.
However, most of them have been tracked, and the rest were not important enough to divert the attention of the Israeli army from Gaza or the escalating conflicts with Hezbollah along the Lebanon border.
Nevertheless, on July 19, a shot-down drone by the Yemeni Houthis crossed Israeli airspace and crashed into an apartment building not far from the US embassy, killing an Israeli citizen and injuring dozens.
A spokesman for the Houthis officially announced that the drone used in this attack was of a new type capable of evading Israeli air defenses.
The Israeli army claims that this drone was made in Iran and has been enhanced to increase its range.
The Houthi attack occurred at an unfavorable time for Israel.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, is under increasing domestic and international pressure to agree to a ceasefire and release Israeli hostages.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah have heightened the specter of opening a second front in northern Israel, which may extend to Syria and even Iraq.
In such circumstances, Israel felt it could not allow another Iran-affiliated group to launch an attack from a third front without facing consequences.
Two days later, Israeli F-15 and F-35 fighter jets carried out operations against oil refinery facilities, air force assets, and other targets in the port of Hodeidah in the Red Sea and its surroundings. The complexity of Israel’s operations, which involved an unknown number of aircraft for refueling and gathering intelligence, will certainly not be underestimated in Tehran.
The message Israel intended to send was that it can still fight on multiple fronts and even launch attacks on Iranian soil.
The important point is that according to Israeli officials, the airstrikes on Hodeidah were carried out without the involvement of the United States, although Washington had been informed beforehand.
Since forming a multinational coalition in December 2023 to protect commercial ships in the Red Sea from Houthi attacks, the United States has put them within its range.
Despite the alliance between the Houthis and Iran, the main goal of the Houthis is to expand their territory in Yemen, especially towards the east and south to the port of Aden, and ultimately emerge as the uncontested rulers of the country.
The Houthis use Hezbollah’s tactics to overcome the resistance of their domestic rivals, many of whom are aligned with Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates.
The Houthis, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, hope to attract more Yemenis towards themselves and increase their power by establishing credibility through resistance against Israel and solidarity with Palestinians.
Among Iran-supported groups in the Arab world, the Houthis have a unique value due to their presence in areas close to the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea.
This location enables this Yemeni group to control international trade transportation through regions that account for 15% of global trade.
In the long term, Yemen under Houthi control can serve as a vital base for Iran, which is seeking to develop a naval force.
In the short term, the continuation of conflicts between Israel and the Houthis helps stabilize Iran’s main rival, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia seeks to reach an agreement with Israel so that the two can form a security bloc against Tehran.
In recent decades, Iran has been creating networks of resistance forces that can attack Israel from various directions. Iran is confident that Israel cannot completely defeat these networks or engage in direct, sustained war with the Islamic Republic.
Therefore, Iran’s strategy is to weaken Israel’s power in its northern and southern fronts. Iran hopes that this could potentially make the region less susceptible to Iran’s influence.
Even if this long-term goal seems far-fetched, it would still be a nightmare scenario for Washington. The tools the US has to counter Iran are far greater than those of Israel.
Interestingly, many of America’s actions in the region from 2001 until now have ultimately benefited Iran.
So, the challenge for the next US administration is either to reach reconciliation and agreements with Iran or to find a way to confront and push back Iran in the region.
Currently, it seems that the US prioritizes the former path.
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