Now Iraq is the last stronghold
Now Iraq is the last stronghold
The fall of Bashar al-Assad and the current situation in Syria have created several changes in the region and the power play between the interested countries. Understanding these changes is not very complicated. Firstly, with Assad’s fall, Turkey has gained more confidence and has taken an aggressive stance.
Secondly, Iran has suffered a defeat, so naturally, it is worried and has taken a defensive position.
Of course, neither Turkey nor Iran has a desire for direct confrontation with each other.
Monitoring the positions of officials from both countries shows that they are trying to be cautious to prevent a direct confrontation. However, the reality is that the path of developments in Syria indicates that the conflict of interests between Turkey and Iran will become more prominent much sooner than many think.
In fact, despite not wanting a confrontation, both Iran and Turkey are caught in the process and developments in Syria, and both are inevitably moving towards confrontation. Meanwhile, the United States is also an important player in Syria.
Iran’s concern about Syria is that the rise of a Sunni government in this country could threaten Iraq’s security. If a Sunni government comes to power in Syria, Sunni Arabs will be stationed on both sides of the Syrian-Iraqi border.
These areas are exactly the ones that ISIS captured in 2014 and declared an Islamic caliphate.
Joulani, the commander of the Tahrir al-Sham group, who now sits in power in Damascus, traveled in these areas from the mid-2000s to the early 2010s to join Al-Qaeda. Iran and Iraq entered a war with ISIS from 2014 to 2018.
Ultimately, with the defeat of ISIS, Sunni-majority areas in Iraq came under the control of the Shia forces of the Popular Mobilization Forces. Now Iran has completely lost Syria, and Hezbollah has also been severely weakened.
Therefore, it is natural for Tehran to try to ensure that at least Iraq remains within Iran’s sphere of influence. From Iran’s perspective, the Tahrir al-Sham group is a hostile force and is also supported by Turkey.
Moreover, Turkey has a significant military presence in northern Syria and is very keen to weaken the separatist Kurds in northern Syria and create conditions for Sunni Arabs to settle in areas controlled by Syrian Kurds.
In fact, Turkey’s ultimate goal is for Sunnis and Turkmens in Iraq to regain power.
Because with the empowerment of these two groups, the balance of power in Iraq will shift against the Iran-backed Shias. Additionally, Turkey has close relations with the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds also control part of the areas bordering Syria.
Meanwhile, the U.S. view of the Syrian Kurds is different. At the time of ISIS’s emergence, the U.S. believed that the Kurds were the only effective force against ISIS. This belief caused a rift between the U.S. and Turkey, and of course, this rift was also beneficial to Iran. But now Assad’s regime has fallen, and Donald Trump has promised to reduce U.S. military involvement in Syria.
Therefore, there is a possibility that Trump and Erdogan might agree on one hand against the rise of ISIS and on the other hand act against Iran’s interests in Syria and Iraq. If this happens, it will be the first time Turkey, by aligning with the U.S., which is Iran’s number one enemy, acts directly against Iran’s interests in the region.
Iran knows that Iraqi Shias might not be able to stand against the empowerment of Iraqi Sunnis, but currently, Iran has the least leverage. If Trump moves towards implementing the policy of maximum pressure, Iran will be under more pressure than ever.
The timing of recent events in Syria and Lebanon was not at all in Iran’s favor. Currently, the economic situation is not good, social capital has eroded, and the state of the government-people relationship is not satisfactory. In such conditions, Iraq is Iran’s last stronghold in the region.
Therefore, the prospect of increased security cooperation between Iran and Iraq is not far-fetched.
If Iraqis perceive a security threat from Syria as serious, they will automatically turn to Iran. In summary, the fragile situation in Syria might spill over into Iraq. If this happens, it could be both an opportunity and a threat for the U.S.
For Turkey, it creates an opportunity to achieve its desired territorial gains, but for Iran, there is a risk that the entire national security strategy built over the past forty years faces an existential threat. Indeed, now Iraq is Iran’s last stronghold.
