Penetration to the Depths of Strategic Centers
Extensive information about the events of Friday in Isfahan and Tabriz has not been published. What we know is that several suspicious flying objects took off, activating defense systems. Whatever this operation was, it was neutralized, but a hidden point within this incident needs to be examined.
The initial account of this operation involved the use of drones. The spokesperson for the National Space Organization mentioned three drones, and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also presented the same account in New York. Therefore, we assume the use of drones.
This account becomes more significant as reports from some media and statements from some domestic officials indicate that ordinary quadcopters were used. The use of these commercial drones seems ridiculous on the surface but carries a bad message for us: penetration to within meters of the target.
Secondly, flying drones requires an operator. If the events in Tabriz and Isfahan are related, the team or teams in question were either inside the country or entered from the borders. We set aside Tabriz and focus on Isfahan. Isfahan is in the center and depth of Iran. If the hypothetical team or teams entered the country, they likely took one of three routes to reach Isfahan and then Qahjavarestan.
Entry from the eastern, western, or southern borders of the country. The distance from the eastern border to Isfahan, considering Zahedan as the starting point, is over 1,000 kilometers. The coast of the Persian Gulf, considering Bandar Abbas as the entry point, is over 900 kilometers from Isfahan.
The western border, considering Marivan in Kurdistan Province, is about 800 kilometers from Isfahan. In this scenario, the team or teams tasked with sabotage and connected to foreign services came deep into Iranian territory without issue or obstacle.
Third, a more pessimistic scenario is the presence of a team near the target for a long time. Isfahan Province is one of the provinces hosting nuclear, military, and defense industry sites, and the presence of an enemy is not unnatural. If the mentioned team did not enter the country to carry out this operation, which involved flying and possibly targeting a specific point, it means they have been stationed near the targets for an unknown period or came to Isfahan from another point within the country upon receiving the command to execute the operation.
Fourth, I previously wrote that using commercial quadcopters might seem ridiculous on the surface but carries an important message. The flight radius of these drones does not reach a kilometer, and their flight endurance is no more than a few minutes. If the account of using these types of drones is correct, it indicates penetration to within a few meters, at most a kilometer, of the target. The distance was such that the operator or operators could prepare and launch the drones.
If the drone is equipped with a camera and can send images to the device controller, we can consider the maximum distance. Otherwise, the target was in the sight of possible operators. Finally, I remind readers of this note that victory and defeat in the silent confrontation between security agencies have existed throughout history and around the world.
The reminder of these scenarios is merely to draw attention to some possibilities. Past experiences show that the sensitivity level of security agencies will likely increase, and in these days, we might witness arrests in this regard. The bitter message of this failed operation is penetration to the depths of Iranian territory, which must be considered. Whatever the recent movements were, they failed and did not achieve their goal. The important point is that when tension in the region is at a high level, we must consider all openings.