Putin chose escalation
Putin chose escalation. Last week, Vladimir Putin called up his reserves and announced a referendum on the annexation of Ukrainian territories. The Kremlin leader condemned NATO’s nuclear threat and warned, ‘We are ready to defend ourselves by any means.’ Vladimir Putin accused the West of wanting to destroy Russia.
Putin spoke of a partial mobilization that only includes reservists and those who have served in the armed forces. According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, about 300,000 people are involved.
The approval of severe penalties by the Duma for those intending to flee fueled fears of widespread conscription. The opposition information website Meduza reported on Telegram that after the president’s speech, all direct flight tickets to Yerevan and Istanbul were sold out. In total, the Kremlin leader announced an escalation of political and military conflicts that began nearly seven months ago and continue today with unpredictable consequences.
Referendum
From September 23 to 26, referendums were held in the two separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, in the Zaporizhzhia region, which houses Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, and in Kherson in the south, which was occupied at the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Altogether, these areas roughly constitute about 15% of Ukraine’s territory.
It had been somewhat apparent for a long time that the war would enter a potentially dangerous phase, especially with the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the northeast, which managed to reclaim over thousands of kilometers of land occupied by Russians in just a few days. This embarrassed and worried the Kremlin to such an extent that, after suspending the referendums for annexation, they suddenly changed their mind and quickly planned for the referendums.
A turning point that, according to the website Meduza, can be attributed to the ‘war party’ composed of powerful Russian bureaucrats, politicians including former President Dmitry Medvedev, and law enforcement officials, all of whom are staunch supporters of escalating the war with Ukraine.
They are the ones who form the ‘magic circle,’ a circle that greatly influences Putin’s decisions, including the decision to hold referendums in the occupied territories. The lack of recognition of these referendums by the international community holds little importance for Moscow, as Russia does not intend to solidify victory on the battlefield by annexing these areas.
In fact, it is a means to justify extreme actions that might occur in these regions. This means that if Ukraine makes advances in these territories in the days following the annexation, Putin will be able to strengthen his narrative that the homeland is under attack and must be defended against the Ukrainian Nazis and their Western supporters.
Considering this, Russia’s nuclear threat in his recent speech takes on a more serious tone. He said, ‘If Russia’s territorial integrity is threatened, we will defend it with any means at our disposal, and this is not a bluff.’
Putin’s Anschluss
Anschluss refers to the annexation of Austria by Germany under Hitler in 1938. Vladimir Putin finally announced the annexation of Ukrainian territories, saying, ‘They belong to us forever.’ The Russian leader continued, stating that Ukraine must stop the fire that started in 2014 and return to the negotiating table. He also attacked the West and the United States, saying they want to keep Russians as slaves and impose their laws and lifestyle on them. However, Kyiv’s response was very clear, and shortly after, it officially applied for NATO membership.
Missile strike on civilians
While Putin was delivering his speech, news came from the front lines of a Russian missile attack on Zaporizhzhia, where Europe’s largest nuclear power plant is located, targeting a convoy of civilians, resulting in the massacre of several civilians. According to Oleksandr Starukh, the governor of Zaporizhzhia, at least 25 people, most of whom were children and the elderly, lost their lives, and 62 others were injured.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), these were people trying to flee from the territory annexed by Russia. Civilians who should have the right to move to escape from attacked areas or simply leave a region due to opposition to a decision are attacked, killed, or injured in a war that many are exhausted by.
From special operation to defensive war
Europe’s reaction to Putin’s speech was swift. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said the illegal annexation declared by Putin will change nothing. All territories illegally occupied by Russian invaders are Ukrainian lands and will always be part of this independent country. In total, Russia has annexed over 100,000 square kilometers, equivalent to 15% of Ukraine’s total area. But what changes have occurred since October 4, when the vote to approve the annexation was set up in the upper house?
For Ukrainians, nothing. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a speech, ‘Let’s continue the counteroffensive for the liberation of our territories.’ But for Russians, everything will change. According to Russian military doctrine, Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the annexed areas is now considered an aggression against Russian sovereignty, and Moscow can use any means to defend its land. The special military operation in the Kremlin’s view turns into a defensive war.
All in unison with a ‘no’
Moscow’s decision means the largest annexation of a part of a sovereign country’s territory in Europe since World War II was met with a unanimous and firm ‘no.’ Not only Europe and the United States, which called it absurd, but also Turkey, India, China, and others, who had so far taken a dual approach to Russia’s invasion, announced that they do not recognize either the referendum results or the annexation of parts of Ukraine’s territory by Russia.
Beijing, which had repeatedly expressed its dissatisfaction with the prolonged conflicts in recent weeks, albeit without condemning Moscow, stated, ‘We have always believed that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected.’
An emergency session is held at the United Nations Security Council to vote on a resolution condemning Russia, presented by the United States and Albania. Even if this resolution does not pass due to Russia’s veto, all eyes will be on India and China, who will be asked as non-permanent members to comment on the annexations. In March, Beijing and New Delhi, followed by a large number of emerging countries, refrained from voting on a resolution condemning Russia for invading Ukrainian territory.
Richard Gowan from the International Crisis Group says the vote is a turning point and could help further isolate Russia and Vladimir Putin internationally.
In his recent speech, Putin said nothing entirely different compared to his famous speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, especially regarding the claim of neo-colonialism and Western unilateralism. He said what has changed is only the intensity of the threat, both the threat against Russia from the West and Moscow’s reaction if attacked by the West.
And perhaps it can be claimed that what Russia strongly desires today is its aspiration to lead an anti-Western bloc that Moscow wants to form with India, China, and other emerging countries that were once Western colonies. Ironically, this was done on the same day it officially announced the annexation of 15% of a sovereign country’s territory. From this perspective, it can be said that Putin’s audience was not only Russians but all countries invited to vote on the resolution condemning Russia, both in favor and against, first at the Security Council and then at the General Assembly.