Putin’s Alliance with the East Against the West
On June 18-19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang and met with Kim Jong-un, unveiling a new agreement for a comprehensive strategic partnership between North Korea and Russia, in which both countries pledged to provide immediate military assistance to each other in the event of war. This agreement is the strongest bond between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War.
Putin’s visit to North Korea indicates his efforts to gather old Soviet allies and sends a strong signal in confronting the United States and its allies, showing that the Russian leader is capable of challenging U.S. and Western interests.
This meeting is a victory for Kim Jong-un as it not only elevates North Korea’s status among countries opposing the U.S.-led international order but also helps strengthen his domestic legitimacy.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken commented on this visit, saying that Putin demonstrates Russia’s attempt to expand and strengthen its relations with countries that can help continue the aggressive war it initiated against Ukraine.
It seems Russia is willing to create conflict in East Asia to focus on the East and achieve victory in the war it started in the West in Ukraine.
North Korea has used the Ukraine war to gain geopolitical leverage with Russia and, in a bold alliance with Moscow, defines security risks for Northeast Asia and the world. Russia has long stood by North Korea in the United Nations Security Council, strongly protecting Pyongyang against international sanctions.
Earlier this year, Moscow vetoed the annual extension resolution of the expert panel monitoring the implementation of long-standing UN sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs due to its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.
Bilateral relations between Russia and North Korea had weakened since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the start of the war in Ukraine opened a new chapter for these relations.
North Korea’s support for Putin in the invasion of Ukraine, along with sending weapons to Russia and Kim’s visit to Russia in September 2023, has led to significant advancements in relations between the two countries.
Putin and Kim see the recent Swiss peace conference on June 15-16 as an opportunity to pressure the United States, Western Europe, and Ukraine’s supporters.
The warming relations between Moscow and Pyongyang have led to the failure of international efforts aimed at curbing North Korea’s nuclear and missile ambitions.
The transfer of container shipments of ammunition from North Korea to Russia is contrary to U.S. interests and enables Russia’s war machine to destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
They hope to coordinate their capabilities to form a force against U.S. and its Western allies’ efforts to support Ukraine’s resistance against Russia’s war.
What Russia provides to North Korea in exchange for these weapons may cause more concern for U.S. policymakers. During Kim’s visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Eastern Russia last year, Putin promised to help enhance North Korea’s satellite capabilities.
Pyongyang hopes that in the recent agreement with Moscow, it can ensure the use of ballistic missile technology in satellite launches. This is a concern for the United States, Japan, and South Korea because North Korea pursues a missile saturation strategy aimed at overwhelming regional anti-ballistic missile systems. Pyongyang uses this strategy as leverage in negotiations with regional countries.
With the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and one of the most sophisticated submarine programs, Russia possesses a wide range of technologies that could be attractive to North Korea.
Despite years of efforts by Washington and the United Nations to disarm Pyongyang, it has conducted six nuclear tests and developed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the United States.
The growing relations between Russia and North Korea are dangerous for the strategic interests of the United States in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Pyongyang and Moscow’s strategy is to align their interests on the Korean Peninsula to prevent the deployment of U.S. resources in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and other regions.
Any increase in North Korea’s military capabilities by Russia, even for conventional weapons, increases the risk for U.S. allies Japan and South Korea, as well as for U.S. forces stationed in the East Asia region. In contrast, the United States will use the revival of the North Korea-Russia alliance as a pretext to increase the level of security cooperation to counteract Putin and Kim Jong-un’s global vision to overthrow the existing international order.
A formal military coalition between Russia and North Korea could complicate Western military plans to respond to major North Korean attacks or invasions, while potentially encouraging Pyongyang to engage in more provocative behaviors.
Considering China’s decision to strengthen strategic relations with Russia, an emerging axis with nuclear-armed counterparts could be valuable for hindering and complicating the military and security planning of the United States and its allies in the Asia-Pacific region.
Although China has an unlimited partnership with Russia and remains a significant supporter of North Korea, it still maintains its distance from both, as they are isolated by sanctions imposed by the United States and the West.
Putin’s visit to North Korea and the opportunity of having another powerful friend for Kim reduces Pyongyang’s excessive reliance on Beijing.
Increased cooperation with Moscow shows that Pyongyang has other options, and China does not tolerate this development of cooperation.
Xi Jinping has carefully tried to present China as a global player.
Therefore, it does not welcome advancements in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs with Russian technological support, nor does it want to see South Korea’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons in response to North Korea’s growing threat.
Stability on the Korean Peninsula is a key foreign policy goal for China, and it is cautious about the potential for unpredictable flare-ups by Pyongyang due to Russian influence.
Beijing fears that Washington will respond to the recent strategic agreement by further strengthening its security relations with regional allies South Korea and Japan, increasing the sense of threat from U.S. military aggression in Asia and the Pacific.
The North Korea-Russia-China triangle could amplify another echo of the start of the Cold War in East Asia.
Of course, it should be considered that China, which suffers from U.S. pressure, may not view the strategic proximity of Moscow and Pyongyang entirely negatively, as this could reduce the U.S. strategic focus on China.
It should even be considered that the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korea could be challenging for Russia, which has become increasingly dependent on China as the main market for its energy exports and a source of advanced technologies in the face of Western sanctions, when close relations with North Korea do not sit well with China. Strained relations with China could potentially disrupt efforts by China and Russia to undermine Western unity.
What is certain is that Putin has supported Xi Jinping’s stance on Taiwan, and Xi has supported Russia’s war in Ukraine by backing Moscow’s efforts to oppose foreign intervention in Russia’s internal affairs.
Additionally, both leaders have prevented efforts to impose additional sanctions against North Korea by the United Nations Security Council.
This trilateral alliance speaks to the growing relations of states that are rewriting the governing software of the international order against the United States and the West in a geopolitical bloc.
In summary, contemporary events and converging interests have managed to align Russia and North Korea in global politics.
As a result of this alignment, the Russian leader, who has prioritized victory over Ukraine in Russia’s foreign policy, is using a strategic spiral from the strategic agreement with his ally in East Asia to ensure support on the battlefield with his European neighbor.