Raisi and Burning the Last Chance for Development with the Morality Police

Raisi and Burning the Last Chance for Development with the Morality Police

Raisi and Burning the Last Chance for Development with the Morality Police According to Iran Gate, the government of Ebrahim Raisi has reinstated the morality police in the streets of the country’s cities, less than two months before the anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s death in the custody of Tehran’s morality police. A decision that could once again set the stage for widespread protests.

Meanwhile, experts believe that Iran is going through its last years to move towards development, and there will be no other chance for the country for decades. In fact, Ebrahim Raisi is reviving unnecessary and ideologically driven conflicts at a time when the last chance for the Iranian nation to achieve development is burning away.

According to demographers, economists, and development researchers, the coming years are Iran’s last chance to move towards development. Iran’s demographic composition and the decline in population growth in the 70s, 80s, and 90s have created a situation where Iran is on the verge of closing its demographic window.

In such circumstances, Ebrahim Raisi and his appointed cabinet, hand in hand with the parliament and judiciary, are preparing the grounds for the revival of the protests of autumn and winter 2022 in the current year.

These Troublesome 60s Generation

Demographers believe that the sharp decline in population growth in Iran has led to a severe demographic imbalance in the country. As has been said many times, those born in the 60s are currently the largest age group in Iran. A group that has claimed its current position following the government’s policy of encouraging childbirth in the years after the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

But this policy changed with the coming to power of Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani’s government after the death of the founder of the Islamic Republic. The walls of the cities were filled with slogans encouraging people to have fewer children. One of the most famous slogans was ‘Fewer children, better life.’ This policy led to a significant drop in birth rates in the 70s, making the 70s generation much smaller than the 60s generation, which was the result of the post-1979 childbirth encouragement policy.

This trend intensified with the Khatami government and extended into the 80s. This trend caused the population growth rate in the 80s to be more than half of the 60s. Although the coming to power of Ahmadinejad changed the government’s population policies, Iranian civil society was convinced that for a better life, there was no need to have many children. As a result, three-member families with only one child became more common. On the other hand, the livelihood problems in the mid-80s and the second half of the 90s led to a decrease in the marriage rate in the country. This event meant an increase in the marriage age for women and men, which naturally led to a decrease in the birth rate.

All these events have led to the current population growth rate in Iran, a country of 85 million people, dropping to less than 0.8 percent, the lowest rate in the current century. Despite the policies that Raisi’s government has adopted to rejuvenate the population, society shows strong resistance to having more children, which is the result of the growth and development of civil society and the unprecedented intensification of livelihood issues.

The demographic imbalance rooted in the misguided policies of the 60s has caused Iran to currently face major and serious problems in demographic harmonization. Of course, this event could have provided an opportunity for a sudden and rapid leap towards development, but this opportunity has now turned into a major threat to the country that could lead to a complete disaster.

The largest age group in different societies can act as a lever for the developmental leap of countries, because when this group enters the labor market, the workforce is at its peak, and in fact, the workforce that can work and support retirees and children is more than any other period. This can lead to unprecedented economic prosperity and move towards comprehensive national development. However, so far, the 60s generation in Iran has not been able to play the role that the largest age groups in developing countries like Brazil, South Africa, and South Korea have played for their countries.

Wasting Opportunities from the Nuclear File to the Morality Police

Governments that prioritize development naturally turn to de-escalation policies domestically and internationally when the largest age group enters the labor market. Naturally, economic growth and development cannot be accessible in conditions where the country’s security is threatened. Therefore, economists believe that the greatest blow to the development-oriented policies of the seventh and eighth governments was dealt by Ahmadinejad’s government, as he, with his famous slogan ‘Nuclear energy is our undeniable right,’ caused Iran’s nuclear file to be passed around the corridors of the Security Council, and Iran has been embroiled in unprecedented international disputes and sanctions in human history ever since.

In fact, exactly at the time when Iran had to move towards de-escalation with the region, a government came to power that saw its survival in foreign tension and domestic suppression. The result of this policy was the issuance of seven Security Council resolutions against Iran and the imposition of crippling sanctions against the Islamic Republic, which practically cut off banking and financial connections with the world.

This policy also led to the political crises of 2009 and the emergence of the Green Movement, which was the result of the strengthening of civil society and the emergence of fundamental demands of the young generation in the 80s, as well as the intensification of repressive policies of the government during Ahmadinejad’s presidency.

Iran entered the 90s while its oil exports had reached one-third of the 80s, and Saeed Jalili, on every trip to the nuclear negotiation venues, returned with a basket full of sanctions, bringing numerous restrictions to Iran’s economy.

Hassan Rouhani tried to resolve this crisis and implement an open space policy in society, but political alignments changed in such a way that from 2016 onwards, and especially after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, he made a 180-degree reversal. The result of this series of events and policies was the deepening of the gap between the government and the nation. Livelihood problems also intensified, and Iran’s economy was severely grounded.

But according to experts, it was Ebrahim Raisi who put an end to the development-oriented writing of the Iranian nation and perhaps closed its file for the next century. Not only did he not pursue a de-escalation policy with the West, but he also involved Iran in a new conflict in Eastern Europe. The intervention of the Islamic Republic in the Ukraine war and the sending of military aid to Russia led the West to exert more pressure on Iran. On the other hand, if there was even the slightest possibility of reviving the JCPOA and lifting the restrictions resulting from the imposition of sanctions, it was completely eliminated.

But it didn’t stop there. From the very beginning of his administration, Raisi pursued a policy of tightening the internal space with widespread filtering and also returning the morality police to the streets across the country. The arrest of journalists and critical political activists also further provoked the already sold social fractures until in September 2022, the killing of a young girl named Mahsa Amini activated all these fractures and created a new conflict between the nation and the government.

The Last Chance

All these events are happening at a time when Iran is going through its last opportunities to move towards development, because if the 60s generation exits the labor market, Iran will face the largest elderly age group in its history. On the other hand, the age groups involved in the labor market are also much smaller than the 60s generation, and naturally, the country’s income and expenses will not align.

Now, in such circumstances, the Raisi government, instead of trying to resolve unnecessary domestic and foreign disputes, has once again brought the morality police back to the streets of the capital and major cities. There is absolutely no news of reviving the JCPOA either. The Russia war is getting more complicated and prolonged day by day, and the Islamic Republic does not intend to save itself from this quagmire in which Moscow is struggling.

Perhaps future generations will remember Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency as the most treacherous era in Iran’s contemporary history, a period when development was more accessible than ever, but Raisi and his cabinet were chasing after young girls in the streets who were tasting the pleasure of letting their hair down in the breeze for the first time.

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