Raisi’s Inflation or Iran’s Inflation
Raisi’s Inflation or Iran’s Inflation: Which is the Reality? According to IranGate, on Sunday, August 28, 2022, Ebrahim Raisi attended a press conference with media representatives where he made statements that sparked numerous reactions. Raisi, who introduced his government as truthful, claimed that the government has been very successful in fulfilling its election promises. This statement alone was enough for experts and social media users to start criticizing the thirteenth president.
Inflation: The Highlight of Raisi’s Unrealistic Claims
In the recent press conference, Raisi largely ignored many of his election promises. He only addressed the issues that his advisors had outlined for the president. Although the journalists’ questions did not seriously challenge Raisi, even the repetitive questions were answered in a way that upset various groups.
However, the most controversial claim by Raisi was related to presenting strange and novel reports on the inflation rate. He surprised experts by emphasizing a 20% control of inflation by the thirteenth government.
The president claimed to have stopped borrowing from the Central Bank and asserts that this policy is the key to his success in controlling inflation. However, the point is that not only is the accuracy of the statistics presented by the president in doubt, but experts believe that borrowing from the Central Bank has neither stopped nor slowed down.
Central Bank Inflation or Statistical Center Inflation
Since Ebrahim Raisi took the helm of the thirteenth government, he has claimed three times to have contained and even reduced the inflation rate in the current government. In the early months of the thirteenth cabinet’s work, he appeared on the Islamic Republic’s television and mentioned a reduction of over 13% in the inflation rate. This claim was made while reports from the Statistical Center indicated that not only had the inflation rate not decreased compared to the first half of the year, but in some indicators, we witnessed an uncontrolled increase in this important economic measure.
Moreover, the surge in the dollar’s price in the free market during Ebrahim Raisi’s presidency also confirmed this, naturally suggesting that inflation should have increased accordingly, thus challenging Raisi’s claim.
However, in the spring of 2022, Ebrahim Raisi once again, in a live television program, referred to a 63% inflation rate during Hassan Rouhani’s government. This statement was made while the Central Bank has not published inflation rate statistics since 2018. The law assigns the responsibility of publishing monthly inflation reports to the Statistical Center of Iran.
One for the Nail, One for the Horseshoe
However, Raisi announced the inflation statistics during Rouhani’s government based on a Central Bank report that had not been published in any media up to that moment. But the report he relied on to announce the inflation rate in his own government came from the Statistical Center of Iran, which is officially and publicly released.
In reality, Mr. Raisi and his advisors, with deceit and hypocrisy, try to distort reality and present the evidence in a way that suits them. But the point is that such actions cannot have any positive impact on the lives of people who are becoming poorer by the day. Deceiving public opinion, by reducing the Central Bank’s status to a tool for the thirteenth government’s propaganda, will also further undermine the national currency’s credibility.
It seems the president every night reviews statistics that no one has seen before and is pleased with his performance over the past year. Under these circumstances, one truly must congratulate Raisi’s advisors who have deluded him into such a state that he probably sees himself as a politician like Olaf Palme, Barack Obama, or Merkel.
Borrowing Continues
As mentioned, another of Ebrahim Raisi’s false statements in his recent press conference was regarding the cessation of government borrowing from the Central Bank. This claim had been repeatedly confirmed by the Central Bank, but independent domestic media had each time reacted to this false claim.
In this regard, Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former head of the Central Bank and also Raisi’s rival in the 2020 elections, has shown numerous reactions. This time, Hemmati on his personal Twitter account deemed Raisi’s claim about the government’s non-borrowing from the Central Bank incorrect.
The former head of the Central Bank wrote on Twitter: ‘Mr. Raisi, while congratulating Government Week, I believe you have not been given correct information regarding the method of borrowing from the Central Bank and the amount of money creation. From the beginning of October 2021 to the end of July 2022, in just 10 months, 134 trillion tomans were printed in your government. Its liquidity effect exceeds 1 quadrillion tomans.’
Of course, Hemmati considered the aspects of the matter and did not want to call Raisi a liar, but the truth is that after a year, Mr. Raisi should have realized that such claims, given the heavy budget deficit of the government, are not only untrue but fundamentally false. However, if the thirteenth president has not realized this yet, one really should be concerned about the continuation of work under his leadership with deceitful, unqualified, and unethical advisors.
Statistical Fabrication: A Common Practice of Raisi’s Government
Despite the high volume of reactions from experts and ordinary citizens to the issues raised by Raisi, it seems the government has no intention of changing its current approach in dealing with the media.
An approach that is very similar to Ahmadinejad’s media strategy. We remember that Ahmadinejad’s similar false statements also caused protests from many economists.
Of course, it is clear that the bitter letters from economic science experts to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not lead anywhere, and he brought the country’s economy to the brink of collapse. But it should not be forgotten that Raisi’s attempt to clumsily copy Ahmadinejad requires a bit of intelligence and academic knowledge, which apparently the thirteenth president lacks.
Another related report and analysis to this article titled ‘In 2023, We Should Expect Hyperinflation’ has been published on IranGate.