Raisi’s Memento on the Fragile Wall of China and Russia Part One

Raisi’s Memento on the Fragile Wall of China and Russia

Raisi’s Memento on the Fragile Wall of China and Russia: According to Iran Gate, prominent economists worldwide are reporting an imminent escalation of China’s economic crisis. Meanwhile, the various crises, both large and small, facing Russia have significantly weakened the northern neighbor of Iran’s standing in international forums. This situation has raised concerns among analysts about the future national interests of Iran under the Islamic Republic’s eastward policy.

The administration of Ebrahim Raisi has unprecedentedly pivoted towards China and Russia at a time when neither of these countries is in favorable conditions. Beijing is grappling with increasing and serious economic crises, while Moscow has lost its strong position in international forums due to its invasion of Ukraine. Many experts believe that this policy of Ebrahim Raisi’s government, given the crises facing Russia and China, jeopardizes Iran’s national interests.

Iran Gate has explored the consequences of the eastward policy in a three-part series. The current report provides a general overview of the current situation, and the next two parts will respectively address the economic and security damages resulting from reliance on China and Russia.

Eastward Policy and Harm to National Interests

Excessive economic reliance on China, which has intensified under the thirteenth government, could expose the country’s already fragile economy to serious risks. Iran’s unnecessary involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war has also led to its recognition as one of Vladimir Putin’s accomplices, accused of violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine, a United Nations member state.

The adoption of an eastward policy and the exclusion of Western countries from cooperation options for Iran has created problems that have been repeatedly discussed over the years regarding their consequences for national interests. Among these damages is the use of Iran’s nuclear file as a bargaining chip for the Russians in negotiations with the West. Additionally, the Chinese, due to their uncontested dominance over various sectors of Iran’s economy, have caused destructive actions by Chinese companies on Iranian soil.

However, the issue is that given the extremist approach of the Raisi government towards Beijing and Moscow, a concerning outlook for national interests has been drawn. This outlook not only places Iran’s economy at greater risk than today’s threats but also endangers national security with Iran’s intervention in the Ukraine war in favor of Moscow. Moreover, the nuclear file has entered a deadlock phase due to the aforementioned pretexts, and it seems that the only way to resolve this issue would be direct negotiations with the Americans, which was initially declared a red line by the Raisi government.

The World in the Hands of the Yellow Dragon

From 2017 to 2020, due to the intensification of oil and banking sanctions, the Islamic Republic was compelled to sell a large portion of its oil unofficially to the Chinese. Trump’s maximum pressure policy had driven Iran into the arms of the East, particularly China, and Beijing took full advantage of this situation.

However, with Joe Biden taking office in the White House, these pressures significantly decreased, allowing the Islamic Republic to unofficially export oil. Yet, the Ebrahim Raisi administration continued the non-transparent oil exports to China, to the extent that it is said about 85 to 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports are directed to China. This situation enabled the Chinese to extract extensive and significant concessions from Iran and fully benefit from the so-called eastward policy of the Islamic Republic.

Supporting Putin and Further Isolation of Iran

Barely six months after Ebrahim Raisi’s government took office, Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This crucial decision by Moscow had detrimental effects on Iran’s policies from the outset, as the nuclear negotiations underway in Vienna suddenly halted, and the diplomats returned to their respective countries.

But the situation did not end there. In the summer of 2022, following the Doha negotiations, some domestic hardliners encouraged the government to withdraw from the negotiations. These individuals, who had considerable influence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, insisted on the myth of a harsh winter, claiming that Russia could succeed in the war and that severe cold would engulf Europe. However, such an event did not occur, and Iran’s nuclear file encountered new complexities that have kept these knots unresolved to this day.

Additionally, last fall it was revealed that Iran had provided domestically manufactured drones to Moscow before and during the Ukraine war. The release of this news prompted Europeans to immediately impose new sanctions against the Islamic Republic. The United States also strongly condemned this action, causing Iran to fall into Moscow’s military and security embrace. This is despite the fact that the Russians, despite their promises, have yet to deliver any military equipment, including Sukhoi-24 fighter jets and the S-400 missile system, to Iran.

The next section delves into the damages of Iran’s reliance on China.