The Reason Behind Trump’s Victory
In the battle between the moderate right and the far right, Donald Trump’s victory flag now waves over the White House.
Joe Biden’s victory only created a four-year pause in the relentless march of fascism in America, a pause that now seems more illusory than ever, given America’s unwavering support for Israel in the genocide of people and neglect of the consequences of neoliberal policies on American society.
Politics in the modern age, with the emergence of complex division of labor, has social foundations. The nature of politics in our time is determined more than ever by social dynamics and the government’s approach to social strata and classes.
While many emphasize the role of politicians, particularly the character of Donald Trump himself, we must not forget that politicians and political forces cannot move beyond social forces.
This issue is naturally more serious and clearer in American politics, where the relationship between politics and social forces has a long history.
As Eric Levitz noted on the Vox website, since the mid-century, the two American parties have separated class-wise, with educated professionals supporting the Republican Party and blue-collar workers voting for the Democrats.
But since the 1960s, this class divide gradually diminished. White voters with a college degree leaned left, while those without a degree leaned right, a trend political analysts called educational polarization.
In 2004, college graduates were more Democratic than working-class voters, and Donald Trump’s victory further aligned this, as workers continuously moved right while a small percentage of the upper classes voted Democratic.
In other words, Democrats could only attract a small share of America’s wealthy and some non-white educated individuals, losing the working class to the Republican Party and Trump. But why did workers gravitate towards the right?
The Democratic Party’s bond with workers, established and solidified since the New Deal in the early 20th century, was severed by Clinton’s and later Obama’s right-wing policies, resulting in the loss of Pennsylvania and most Rust Belt states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These states were lost because Democrats pursued neoliberal policies.
These policies led to the financialization of the economy and deindustrialization of the American economy, resulting in a massive number of unemployed and angry workers. Democrats, ignoring the social consequences of their policies, attributed the anger of this significant portion of the American population, which was also echoed in other states, to cultural backwardness, xenophobia, and madness, unwilling to see the consequences of their policies.
The Democratic Party failed to advance any program over these four years to improve the welfare of the middle and working classes. In contrast, Trump, with the slogan ‘Make America Strong Again’ and promises to support domestic industries, managed to win the vote of this class.
If we understand this important relationship between society and politics in America, it becomes easier to understand Trump’s seemingly contradictory behaviors.
Many ask why Trump, who behaves bully-like, simultaneously has an anti-war policy. The answer is that the impoverished middle classes and the American working class want economic issues to return to the table of power.
While American industries have been exported abroad to East Asia and America’s infrastructure is declining, why should the country be involved in wars in Europe and Ukraine or elsewhere? On the other hand, the government’s retreat from fulfilling its social duties towards these poor and oppressed classes has caused them to support powerful and bully politicians who promise to protect them.
Especially since this bullying is against the liberal elite. That’s why Trump’s insults and mockery, which educated people dislike and consider impolite, remain appealing to the classes that support Trump.
Democrats’ disregard for events in Palestine also added to the reasons, showing in a tight competition that they ultimately consider the interests of capital, even when it is clear their support for the genocide in Palestine leads to their defeat, they sacrificially accept defeat to avoid frowning upon Israeli lobbies. Today, the Democratic Party paid the price for its blind support of Israel and turned its back on its small but active and influential progressive faction that defended Palestine.
Let’s not forget that it was the effort of one of these progressive members that changed the Georgia state vote in favor of the Democrats in the last election.
But the donkey had crossed the bridge, and the progressive representatives of the Democratic Party were not even allowed to speak at the party convention. Instead, the party leaned right and tried to woo Liz Cheney, daughter of war-monger Dick Cheney, to win the hearts of moderate Republican women. This was the best assist Trump was waiting for.
Trump constantly talked about how the entire establishment of both parties serves warmongering and neglects the people’s situation, and the Harris-Cheney coalition was his best evidence, firmly establishing his position as an outsider.
It should be noted that Trump will carry serious contradictions in both domestic and foreign policy. Trump has risen to power with the wave of social support from unemployed and harmed working classes due to deindustrialization policies and also from the fierce American capitalist money that tolerates no government interference in the economy. These two social and economic forces have different interests, and Trump must balance between them.
In his first term, Trump served the interests of the first group by withdrawing from environmental agreements and allowing shale oil extraction and tried to strengthen the status of domestic industries by creating a currency war, but he ultimately cannot advance an effective policy without higher taxes on the wealthy.
We will likely witness the emergence of Trump’s government’s contradictions from now on.
We will also witness these contradictions in foreign policy. Trump, due to the disillusionment of the working class and the impoverished middle class, will likely avoid warmongering policies, but on the other hand, will not hold back in supporting Israel.
On election night, Netanyahu, confident of Trump’s victory, replaced his defense minister, indicating his confidence in Trump’s support for his warmongering policies.
Moreover, the impact of domestic policy on foreign policy should be understood. The emergence of contradictions in Trump’s domestic policy may push him towards warmongering on a global scale. Nothing can keep a leader trapped in domestic crises in power like war.
Netanyahu has tested this well, and now he is Trump’s best friend. Therefore, there is not much time to reduce tensions between Iran, Israel, and America.
Iran’s case should be removed from the American president’s desk as soon as possible.
The contradictions in American policy will increase day by day, and the American president will become more desperate to escape the internal crisis day by day.
It is the national duty of every Iranian politician to keep Iran’s case as far away from this madman as possible.