The Reasons Behind Trump’s Victory
The reasons behind Trump’s victory in the battle between the center-right and the far-right are now evident as Donald Trump’s flag flies high over the White House.
Joe Biden’s victory only created a four-year pause in the relentless march of fascism in America, a pause that now seems more like a false interlude than ever, given America’s unwavering support for Israel in the genocide of people and the disregard for the consequences of neoliberal policies on American society.
Politics in the modern era, with the emergence of complex division of labor, has a social foundation. The nature of politics in our time is more determined by social dynamics and the government’s approach to social classes and groups than ever before.
While many emphasize the role of politicians, particularly the character of Donald Trump himself, we must not forget that politicians and political forces cannot move beyond social forces.
This issue is naturally more serious and clearer in American politics, where the relationship between politics and social forces has a long history.
As Eric Levitz noted on the Vox website, since the mid-century, the two American parties have been class-divided, with educated professionals supporting the Republican Party and blue-collar workers voting for the Democrats.
However, since the 1960s, this class divide gradually diminished. White voters with college degrees moved to the left, while those without college degrees shifted to the right, a trend political analysts called educational polarization.
By 2004, college graduates were more Democratic than working-class voters, and Donald Trump’s victory further aligned this trend, with workers continually moving to the right and a small percentage of the upper classes voting for Democrats.
In other words, Democrats could only attract a small share of America’s wealthy and some non-white educated individuals, losing the working class to the Republican Party and Trump. But why did workers lean to the right?
The Democratic Party’s bond with workers, established and strengthened since the New Deal in the early 20th century, was broken by Clinton’s and later Obama’s right-wing policies, resulting in the loss of states like Pennsylvania and most Rust Belt states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These states slipped from Democratic control because Democrats pursued neoliberal policies.
These policies led to the financialization of the economy and deindustrialization of the American economy, resulting in a massive number of unemployed and angry workers. Democrats, ignoring the social consequences of their policies, attributed the anger of this significant section of the American population, which was echoed in other states, to cultural backwardness, xenophobia, and madness, refusing to see the consequences of their policies.
Over these four years, the Democratic Party failed to advance any program to improve the welfare of the middle and working classes. In contrast, Trump, with the slogan ‘Make America Strong Again’ and promises to support domestic industries, managed to win the vote of this class.
Understanding this crucial relationship between society and politics in America makes it easier to comprehend Trump’s seemingly contradictory behaviors.
Many ask why Trump, who behaves like a bully, simultaneously has an anti-war policy. The answer is that the impoverished middle classes and the American working class want economic issues to return to the forefront of power.
While American industries have been exported abroad and to East Asia, and America’s infrastructure is deteriorating, why should the country be involved in wars in Europe, Ukraine, or elsewhere? On the other hand, the government’s withdrawal from fulfilling its social duties towards these poor and disadvantaged classes has made them supporters of powerful and bullying politicians who promise to protect them.
Especially when this bullying is against the liberal elite. That’s why Trump’s vulgarity and mockery, which are unappealing to the educated and considered impolite, are still pleasing to Trump’s supporting classes.
The Democrats’ indifference to the events in Palestine further contributed to the realization that ultimately, they prioritize capital interests, even when it is clear that their support for the Palestinian genocide leads to their defeat. They accept defeat selflessly to avoid upsetting Israeli lobbies. Today, the Democratic Party paid the price for blind support of Israel and turned its back on its small but active and influential progressive wing that defended Palestine.
Let’s not forget that efforts by one of these progressive members changed the vote in Georgia in favor of the Democrats in the previous election.
But the donkey had already crossed the bridge, and the progressive representatives of the Democratic Party were not even allowed to speak at the party convention. Instead, the party leaned to the right and tried to woo Liz Cheney, the daughter of the war-mongering Dick Cheney, to win over moderate Republican women. This was the best assist Trump was waiting for.
Trump constantly spoke about how the entire establishment of both parties was serving warmongering and ignoring the people’s situation, and the Harris-Cheney coalition was his best evidence, solidifying his position as a complete outsider.
It must be noted that Trump will carry serious contradictions in both domestic and foreign policy. Trump has risen to power with the wave of social support from unemployed and harmed working classes due to deindustrialization policies and also from the unrestrained American capitalist money that tolerates no government intervention in the economy. These two social and economic forces have differing interests, and Trump must balance between them.
During his first term, Trump served the interests of the first group by withdrawing from environmental agreements and allowing shale oil extraction, and he tried to strengthen the state of domestic industries by creating a currency war. However, ultimately, he cannot pursue an effective policy without higher taxes on the wealthy.
From now on, we will likely witness the emergence of contradictions in Trump’s administration.
We will see the same contradictions in foreign policy. Due to the disillusionment of the working class and impoverished middle class, Trump will likely avoid warmongering policies, but on the other hand, he will not hold back in supporting Israel.
On election night, Netanyahu, confident of Trump’s victory, changed his defense minister, indicating his certainty of Trump’s support for his warmongering policies.
Additionally, we must be aware of the impact of domestic policy on foreign policy. The emergence of contradictions in Trump’s domestic policy may lead him to warmongering on a global scale. Nothing can keep a leader struggling with internal crises in power like a war.
Netanyahu has tested this well, and now he is Trump’s best friend. Therefore, there is not much time to reduce tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States.
The Iranian issue must be removed from the American president’s agenda as soon as possible.
The contradictions of American policy will increase day by day, and the American president will become more desperate to escape the internal crisis.
It is the national duty of every Iranian politician to keep the Iranian issue as far away as possible from this madman.