Recent Polls on the US Elections

Recent polls on the US elections

With the end of the Democratic convention in Chicago, the suspension of Robert Kennedy’s campaign in key states in favor of Trump marked an important phase in the election activities of the two parties in America, and all eyes are now on the beginning of the final stage of the electoral battle.

This final stage traditionally begins with Labor Day in this country, which is at the beginning of September. The first and perhaps only debate between the two rivals on September 10 will be decisive. The developments in the last two weeks of August made the polls conducted at the end of this month very interesting, and the results of these polls have arrived.

In general, experts were not expecting any surprising changes, and the current interpretation of the election interactions is as seen before.

The political polarization in America is so strong that a significant decrease in one of the rivals’ votes in a two to three-month period is very difficult.

What matters is maximizing the mobilization of one’s voter base, attracting undecided voters, and winning the votes of those who usually do not participate in elections.

Working on improving voter turnout was one of the areas where Trump campaign managers demonstrated their high capabilities in 2020. Despite his widespread unpopularity, they managed to attract a high number of votes for Trump by reaching out to underrepresented areas and engaging citizens uninterested in politics or those who had never thought about participating in elections. Recent polls conducted in late August indicate Harris’s superiority and actually an improvement in his campaign’s position among his voter base. The Democrats’ situation among independents has also significantly improved.

Interestingly, in some polls, two specific voter bases that are a serious concern for Democrats showed a better preference for Harris than they had anticipated: Latino voters and non-college-educated voters.

Trump still has a better standing among the second group, but Harris is much more popular than Biden among them. One notable poll was the Wall Street Journal poll, which showed Harris leading by two percentage points. For the first time in this election cycle, Trump has fallen behind in this institution’s polls. Harris’s position in the Suffolk University poll has also significantly improved, with a 48 to 43 percent lead over Trump.

The change in the election status with Harris entering the competition and the trend of changing public opinions in recent weeks has been well demonstrated in the Ipsos poll.

This poll conducted for Reuters shows a serious improvement in Harris’s position and minimizes the impact of candidates other than the two main rivals. However, this influence can ultimately be decisive in key states, where the distance between Trump and Harris is very close. Polls in key states also indicate a close competition and an improvement in Harris’s position.

In the Morning Consult poll conducted for Bloomberg, Harris is ahead of Trump in all key states except Arizona, and the competition in this poll remains sensitive and close. A particular point in this poll is the improvement in the Democrats’ situation.

A recent poll by Fox News also indicates Harris’s superiority in three out of the four important southern states known as the Sun Belt.

Interestingly, in this poll, Harris is ahead of Trump in Florida and Georgia. The Harris campaign must position itself in Florida and address concerns in this state.

Achieving this goal requires overcoming a lingering crisis, which is nothing but weakening the Democratic Party’s position among Latino voters.

This racial group encompasses a wide range of ethnicities, nationalities, and age groups. Third and fourth-generation immigrants have minimal commonalities with first and second-generation immigrants. Cuban Latinos are different from Puerto Rican Latinos, and Mexican Latinos also exhibit distinct behaviors in each region of America.

This racial group is a major puzzle in the Democratic Party’s electoral strategy.

In any case, heated days are ahead in anticipation of the American elections.

The results of a Fox News poll have shown that other Republican candidates in Senate and gubernatorial races have a very precarious position compared to the level of support for Trump.

It is crucial for Democrats to ponder on this point and unravel the mystery behind the better situation of their Senate candidates compared to Harris’s situation.

If a significant achievement is made in this regard for the Democratic Party, states like Georgia and North Carolina will be completely winnable.