Russia and China Set the Last Ten Days of September on Fire

Russia and China set the last ten days of September on fire

Russia and China set the last ten days of September on fire. Vladimir Putin’s speech on September 21, seven months after his key speech announcing his invasion of Ukraine, once again shook the world. There can be no doubt about the importance of this speech. While world leaders were negotiating in New York to resolve the Ukraine crisis, the formal announcement of Putin’s plan to hold a referendum in the territories he occupied in Ukraine had already sounded the alarm for the US and its allies.

In the 24 hours before this speech, which was delayed several times, Western security and military officials expressed similar reactions, and gradually, serious analysis about the main threat ahead became evident in their statements. Almost parallel to these developments in the confrontation between Russia and the West, the spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Chinese government officially announced the country’s stance on Taiwan, stating that the ruling Communist Party’s plan is the peaceful return of Taiwan to China.

This stance announcement occurred before Putin’s speech and naturally worried the Chinese as well as the Westerners. The immediate reaction of the Chinese government was to call for a quick ceasefire in Ukraine. What has happened in these sensitive circumstances is the alarm being raised for the United States and its allies on both sides of the world.

Putin changed everything

Throughout the days and weeks of his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has called what he started and continued a special operation. He has never explicitly talked about his country entering a war and has observed one of the most important points to avoid putting his country in a wartime situation: not issuing a general conscription order.

Putin’s speech on Wednesday, September 21, changed this specific equation. He issued an order for conscription and in his speech used the term limited conscription. However, this so-called limited conscription will draw 300,000 reserve forces and those outside the military structure into Ukraine. The direct result of this change in policy and rhetoric is Russia entering a wartime situation. Now, we must wait for domestic reactions.

In the hours following his speech, reports emerged about the readiness of Russian security and military forces to confront protests and anti-war and anti-conscription gatherings in various cities of the country. It is unlikely that Russian investors and economic elites, some of whom have already voiced their protests and even risked their lives for their objections, will easily accept the wartime situation.

By holding a referendum in eastern Ukraine and preparing to separate these regions, Putin has effectively taken the biggest step towards creating an unprecedented tension. If these referendums are finalized, these regions will become part of Russian territory, and as a result, the Ukrainian army will be declared by the Russians as invaders on their soil.

In the hours before Putin’s speech, security and military experts’ warnings about these referendums went beyond the existing political considerations in officials’ statements. They rightly pointed out that the risk of using various weapons and methods by Putin is serious, and he has paved the way for the use of tactical nuclear weapons under the pretext of defending his territory. Astonishingly, Putin also spoke explicitly about this and with surprising phrases warned the West with a nuclear threat, saying, ‘I am not bluffing.’

The hours following Putin’s speech were hours of turmoil in global financial markets, with most investors and firms converting their assets into the most secure accessible items, and the dollar being the most secure. As a result, the value of the dollar reached its highest level in decades, breaking all records moment by moment. The ruble lost its value again, and the initial reactions of Russian markets indicated their concern.

Fake referendums and ridiculous conscription

Russian conscription in this new period has become a bizarre process. Russian men are fleeing the country, and their unwillingness to be on the battlefield and participate in the invasion of Ukraine has become more pronounced and openly visible. Russian officials can do nothing about this specific issue. Domestic developments in Russia are moving in a dangerous direction for Vladimir Putin. The borders of this country with Georgia and Mongolia, and generally any border through which Russian men can leave the country, have experienced astonishing congestion.

The Russian referendums, whose results are supposed to be announced in a few days, if already fake and showy, are becoming more ridiculous moment by moment with their childish conduct. It has reached a point where Russian soldiers and agents go door to door in the areas where the referendum is being held and forcibly obtain ‘yes’ votes from the people for the referendum.

The natural result of this process is the heavy pressure on various officials under Putin’s command. Military personnel and senior generals are under intense pressure and are disheartened and angry that Putin has handed over the reins to officials with security backgrounds and no military experience. Various officials across Russia are also dissatisfied, and multiple local officials have banded together in a limited and not very successful attempt to gather signatures under a strongly worded statement against Putin. Russian diplomatic officials have also bowed under various pressures.

Sergey Lavrov was deeply perplexed in New York. Having lost his composure, he was extremely anxious and agitated at the Security Council meeting on the Ukraine crisis, to the point of resorting to insults and derogatory remarks about Ukrainians and Volodymyr Zelensky. His speech at the UN General Assembly also reflected anxiety and disarray.

China removes the masks

Western officials were preparing to respond to new statements from Chinese officials about Taiwan when Putin drew all attention to himself. The spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office in the Chinese government officially announced in a press conference that the Chinese government’s policy is the peaceful return of Taiwan to China. These phrases and terms are openly contradictory to Taiwan’s political realities. Taiwan has never been a part of Communist China to be returned.

For some experts, these new official Chinese statements are seen as a softening of their stance, and the absence of military threats is evaluated as a positive point. What is actually happening in East Asia is the intensification of the military presence of Taiwan’s Western supporters, and now Canadian warships have joined their American counterparts, conducting maneuvers and patrolling in the waters around Taiwan.

Special political developments in Asia and the increasingly serious competition between China and India have effectively forced China to turn its foreign minister’s meeting with Antony Blinken into an opportunity to showcase its power in New York. The foreign minister’s speech at the General Assembly also showed no sign of peacefulness. The US, in its new cooperation programs with Japan and South Korea, brought these two neighboring countries of China closer than ever before in these last days of September, finalizing a military cooperation agreement between the two countries, which is one of the biggest steps by the US to assert itself against China.

The final days of September are the hottest days in international politics since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There are a few days left until the end of September, and we must see how the first weeks of autumn will unfold.

Other articles have been exclusively prepared by Iran Gate.

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