The Russian Black Corridor
The Russian Black Corridor: Following the rhetoric of officials from Azerbaijan and Turkey regarding what is referred to as the Zangezur Corridor, Russia has recently joined the supporters of constructing this corridor. The route connecting Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, which is part of its territory, has become a contentious issue between the two main players, Baku and Yerevan, on one side, and other countries, including Iran, Turkey, and Russia, on the other.
For over three decades, since the first Karabakh war when the region was under Armenian control, Azerbaijan accessed Nakhchivan through Iran, and Iran had no issue with this. However, after the second Karabakh war in 2020, when Azerbaijan regained control of most of the mountainous Karabakh regions, the discussion about creating a corridor in the Syunik province, which Azerbaijan calls Western Zangezur, has intensified. In fact, Baku wants to use this corridor, located on the border between Iran and Armenia, to connect to Nakhchivan without going through Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran has no objection to implementing the ninth clause of the 2020 Karabakh ceasefire agreement, which includes Azerbaijan’s access to Nakhchivan through Iran. For the past three decades, the connection between Baku and the Nakhchivan region has only been through Iran. To examine the disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia, one must refer to the first Karabakh war from 1991 to 1994. The mountainous Karabakh region is 4,000 square kilometers, a very elevated and mountainous area, including cities like Khankendi, Askeran, and Shusha, which was 4,000 kilometers during the Soviet era.
During the first Karabakh war from 1991 to 1994, Armenia not only declared independence in that region but also took seven surrounding districts, covering nearly 10,000 kilometers. These districts include Jabrayil, Fizuli, Zangilan, Gubadli, Aghdam, Lachin, and Kalbajar. Thus, Armenia occupied 4,000 kilometers of mountainous Karabakh and 10,000 kilometers of its surrounding districts. The aim of Armenia in taking these districts was to create a buffer around mountainous Karabakh to prevent Azerbaijan from besieging this area. For thirty years after that, these areas were almost uninhabited, serving only as a buffer or security membrane.
During the second Karabakh war in 2020, Azerbaijan managed to reclaim these seven regions, along with the city of Shusha, from inside mountainous Karabakh. Three years later, in September 2023, Azerbaijan was also able to capture mountainous Karabakh in a one-day war, prompting over 100,000 residents to flee to Armenia. Now, the population in Karabakh is nearly below a thousand. None of the areas that Armenia captured in the 1990s are under its control anymore, as Azerbaijan has reclaimed them all. Today, the debate is about determining border limits, as the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan have not been demarcated. This is because western Azerbaijan in Karabakh was under Armenian control, and thus, unlike other Soviet republics, borders were not determined.
What Does the Kremlin Say
In recent days, Moscow has also sided with Baku, and after Vladimir Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan two weeks ago, the spokesperson for the country’s foreign ministry announced Moscow’s support for the Zangezur corridor project. This is while Russia previously had a passive stance on this region and never took such a clear position. Following Vladimir Putin’s visit to Baku, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, stated in an interview with Russia’s Channel One, ‘We support the swift conclusion of a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan and the unblocking of communications.’ He described the Armenian government as an obstacle to this important matter and added that, unfortunately, it is the Armenian leadership that is obstructing the agreement signed by Prime Minister Pashinyan regarding communications from Armenia’s Syunik region.
Then, Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also stated that Zangezur is a route that can connect Azerbaijan’s main territory to Nakhchivan through Armenia’s Syunik. She added that the unblocking of Zangezur will certainly be discussed within the framework of trilateral peace talks with Armenia. When asked about Iran’s stance, Zakharova told reporters, ‘We have seen the Iranian side’s concerns regarding the Zangezur corridor, and we need to contact Tehran for clarification. But Moscow’s stance on this issue is completely firm. We proceed based on the fact that the solution should be acceptable to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and regional neighbors.’ This Russian stance prompted the Islamic Republic to once again remind of our country’s clear stance on not changing borders.
The Tight Embrace of Turkey and Baku
Of course, before Russia, Turkey was among the countries that strongly supported the creation of such a corridor. A group of experts says that the ultimate goal of Baku and Turkey in creating the corridor is actually to seize the Syunik province area on the Iran-Armenia border and are nurturing territorial expansion ambitions. Also, since a large portion of Azerbaijan’s oil is extracted by British Petroleum, some speak of the role of Western countries and NATO in creating this corridor and believe that ultimately, creating such a corridor will help facilitate the easier export of Azerbaijan’s Caspian oil to Europe. However, some also point to Turkey and Azerbaijan’s motivations regarding the Turkic world and argue that Baku and Ankara are aspiring to expand the Turkic territory.
Previously, Vali Golmohammadi, a professor at Tarbiat Modares University, told the World of Economy about Turkey’s motivations for re-engagement in the Caucasus region. He said that Turkey has distanced itself from its active engagement in the chaotic situation of the Middle East, especially the Arab Middle East from North Africa to the Eastern Mediterranean, and is now defining new strategic interests for itself in Central Eurasia. This is because Ankara, like other players, feels that Central Eurasia is becoming the heartland of wealth and power distribution in the international system. He emphasized that Zangezur is the missing puzzle of the middle corridor that Turkey wants to use to complete its strategic connections. He stressed that Iran is Turkey’s main competitor in the east-west corridors, and Turkey’s effort is to ensure that Iran does not benefit too much from this capacity to have more bargaining power.
Why Is Iran Opposed
Iran opposes the creation of a corridor known as Zangezur and has valid reasons for it. This is because Baku does not want to accept this corridor under Armenian sovereignty but wants to create such a corridor without any interference from Yerevan, meaning no checkpoints from Armenia in this area, which would violate the national sovereignty of this country. At the same time, if such a corridor is established, not only will Baku’s geopolitical dependency on Iran disappear, but Azerbaijan might also pressure Iran for a connection to Armenia and Europe, which is only possible through this border. Additionally, given Armenia’s weak government, if the Zangezur corridor is launched, it may de facto fall under Azerbaijan’s control, even though it is de jure and legally under Armenia’s jurisdiction.
In another scenario, it is not unlikely that if Armenia is given concessions, it may enter such a mechanism and agree to the creation of the corridor. In this case, the question arises: what should Iran do in facing this scenario? Iran has repeatedly announced that it is completely opposed to any changes in its borders, an issue even accepted by Western countries like the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. In this regard, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, said on Thursday on the social network X, ‘Any threat against the territorial integrity of our neighbors or the redrawing of borders, whether in the north, south, east, or west, is completely unacceptable and is a red line for Iran.’ Araghchi added that regional peace, security, and stability is not only a priority but also one of the pillars of our national security.
Three Scenarios for Iran
The Islamic Republic of Iran will face three scenarios. First, Azerbaijan and supporters of the Zangezur corridor project retreat from pursuing such a project, and Azerbaijan continues to use the route through Iran to connect to Nakhchivan as before. The second scenario is that this corridor is created under Armenian sovereignty, and Azerbaijan travels in such a corridor under the supervision of the Armenian government. However, the third and dangerous scenario is that Azerbaijan covets the seizure of this area, which will change the border between Iran and Armenia. Iran has repeatedly warned about such an issue, and perhaps the first option that comes to mind in the event of the occupation of the Syunik province is the use of military force. However, it is clear to everyone that if Iran wants to engage in military conflict on its northern borders, it will have many consequences.
Therefore, it is better for Tehran to prevent such a scenario from occurring and, through diplomatic consultations and participation in its own corridor and transit projects, become part of such projects and prevent the realization of dangerous and ominous scenarios.