Saudi Arabia Distancing from the United States

Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the United States

Have the Saudis also adopted an eastward outlook?

Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the United States: According to Iran Gate, when Saudi Arabia and Iran, two fierce rivals, accepted China as a mediator to restore diplomatic relations, world leaders were surprised. The surprise was that this agreement was announced without the presence of the United States and with China’s mediation in Beijing.

According to Iran Gate, the website of the China Daily newspaper published in Beijing, in an article by Jack Migli, director of the Strategic Studies think tank based in Washington D.C., examined the reasons for the reduced influence of the United States in the West Asia region and the preference of Tehran and Riyadh for China’s mediation in restoring their relations instead of the United States.

The article continues, China’s successful diplomacy may indicate a fundamental shift in the level of dominance and influence of the United States in the Middle East region. The agreement between the two countries in Beijing to restore relations has created new conditions under which the two countries can return to more stable and constructive relations. Why did these two Middle Eastern powers turn to Beijing for help in reviving their diplomatic, economic, and security relations?

The answer to this question can be found in a combination of harsh economic realities and the policy priorities of the United States and China. Practical economic considerations have brought Saudi Arabia and Iran closer to China than to the United States. Iranians suffer from severe U.S. sanctions and have had no economic relations with the U.S. since the hostage crisis of 1979. In contrast, China is Iran’s largest trading partner, with a total annual bilateral trade value of nearly 16 billion dollars.

This key relationship is based on Iranian oil, which is unavailable to most countries due to U.S. sanctions. In 2021, China and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement covering a wide range of cooperation in industrial development and joint investment initiatives, further enhancing the value of bilateral economic relations.

China has also emerged as Saudi Arabia’s most important economic partner. In 2021, China’s trade with Saudi Arabia exceeded 87 billion dollars, an amount greater than Saudi Arabia’s total trade with the United States and the European Union, which amounts to 78 billion dollars.

Last December, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud signed a comprehensive partnership agreement that includes a wide range of investment initiatives, expanding economic relations to infrastructure development and other dimensions.

Oil and other mutual economic interests have turned China into the most important trading partner for both Iran and Saudi Arabia, while U.S. economic engagement in the region has steadily declined over the years.

Meanwhile, both China and the United States have made deliberate policy choices that have altered the dynamics of the Middle East and reduced U.S. influence. The first choice has been between economic sanctions or economic development to influence the behavior of trading partners. The United States heavily relies on economic sanctions to punish governments and individuals deemed incompatible with U.S. interests.

Today, the U.S. government manages about 38 active sanctions programs that prohibit or regulate trade. Some are geographically broad and directed, like those against Iran, while other sanctions are targeted and specific, focusing on certain individuals and entities.

While China has also imposed limited sanctions in very few cases, the overall framework of China’s policy is development-oriented and based on investment and mutual interests. In Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee explores joint investment opportunities in oil and non-oil projects, from hydrogen energy to artificial intelligence and climate change. Chinese companies like Huawei, Changan, and Hongqi are well-known in Saudi Arabia, and Chinese products are widely used, further strengthening economic relations.

China has also adopted a similar approach in Iran, signing a long-term strategic cooperation agreement valued at over 400 billion dollars, which includes development projects in oil, mining, transportation, and agriculture.

The positive impact of development aid and investment, as opposed to the negative impact of sanctions, has increased China’s soft power in the Middle East, while U.S. sanctions have limited America’s access and ability to influence political and diplomatic developments.

The second U.S. policy choice, the use of arms sales and security assistance, has further increased China’s influence at the expense of the United States. The United States heavily relies on arms sales to gain political influence, but this approach seems to be losing its effectiveness in the Middle East.

Between 2013 and 2022, U.S. arms transfers to 124 countries amounted to 104 billion dollars. Saudi Arabia has been the largest market for U.S. arms sales. U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia have exceeded the total value of all Chinese military aid worldwide. In fact, Saudi Arabia has received more arms from the United States than the combined total of the other three largest U.S. arms customers: Australia, Japan, and the United Arab Emirates.

Despite the extensive volume of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, U.S. influence has clearly diminished as the Riyadh government turned to China for an agreement with Iran. China’s use of arms sales leverage is much less than that of the United States, with total sales of about 16 billion dollars to 70 countries over 10 years, accounting for only about 15% of U.S. arms sales.

In the past decade, Saudi Arabia has received only about 350 million dollars in arms from China, which is only about 2% of the value of U.S. arms sales to the country. Iran has also received only about 30 million dollars in Chinese arms in the past decade. Yet, despite or perhaps because of the small scale of China’s defense assistance, Saudi Arabia and Iran decided to cooperate with Beijing to resolve their differences.

Economic realities have pushed Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China towards closer and more comprehensive relations. The different policy choices of China and the U.S., including the use of development aid, sanctions, and arms transfers, have increased China’s influence and credibility at the expense of the U.S. role in the Middle East.

It seems that global competition between major powers is increasingly based on economic development, investment, and practical and positive actions to strengthen cooperation. China’s significant achievement in bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia into a new era of mutually beneficial relations may pave the way for a future of global economic cooperation.